Member Info for edgar222

I have zero technical knowledge or experience about the stimulation work such as is going on at Southwark at the moment.

Anyone with more knowledge got any views on timescales for whether the stimulation has worked and then what flow tates might be? Historically there has been a real absence of numbers for Southwark, or at least that was the case last time I looked for predicted flow rates. Maybe because they cant guess pre-stimulation?

Thanks in advance.

Hardnose

Busy too. Thank God. It stops me watching the share prices!

Fragmented geology possible but not found at Ruvuma to date. Big problem at KN1. Not on the mainland.

Massive commercial find and being taken out dosent sound like a risk to me! ;)

Obviously you are right, there is always a chance of operational issues (I am in IOG!). But thats ever present with them all. I genuinely believe that the macro point is that all the explorer risks I mentioned have reduced (arguably disappeared).

Of course with our beloved Aminex there is a chance of us all being dead of old age but, that aside, some more patience will really pay here I believe. I continue to buy so am putting my money where my mouth is (fwiw).

GLA

In that spirit, Hardnose, can you articulate for me what you see the obvious risks to be now.

I don't see huge geological, financial (dilution), commerciality or regulatory risks any more.

....just filter people you don't like. This constant "he is a de-ramper/basher don't trust him" is such childish BS.

It also makes it difficult to sort the good stuff from the utter dross. And there still is some good stuff here.

I topped up this week fwi (not much)

The risk profile is changing with the upcoming production plans. And we still have major assay news and the wild card (jv on the copper) as possible.

Not one for the widows and orphans but I will have some more down here, tyvm.

Wolster

They added last week and describe current share price as "a good entry point" though I dont believe thats in the article, if you find them on twitter its in a separate write up of their portfolio.

They believe gas prices are going higher and for that reason IOG are ok.

Thanks Thomas.

I doubled my holding last week at 8p and was happy to do so. Fwiw (not much).

GLA

No way to spin that RNS. Bad.

But reduced production and future production plans in 2 months time must now underpin?

Also, never seen a spreqd like it, sell at 9p but buy at 18p.

I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility that Ara will just carry on drilling after CH1 is done.

There has been historic talk of full field development requiring a further 6 or so wells. Now they have the seismic they might be able to just keep going. And with an operator their size there is no reason that would mean a delay to production. They are aboe to do more than one thing at once.

Omg. 2022 yes. Not 2023. The senior moments are coming thick and fast just now.

New

The operator has said November 2023. Aminex in their results last week repeated this.

I have long thought that there is a reasonable chance of it being put back from November. There is a lot to happen between now and spud and the recently completed seismic might mean full field development drilling is brought forward. It dosent matter because the asset is getting better as it is being proved up and a few weeks/months more don't matter to me. All that said it looks like I have been wrong about that delay (and delighted to be wrong) and the official line from the company recently is November is confirmed.

Jack

"Id also argue that just about every element of the current situation is better now than when NT2 was drilled..."

And you would be correct.

Aimster

P11 of the May 2022 presentation: http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/2022%20AGM%20Presentation.pdf

I don't pretend to know recoverability and neither does the company yet.

My only point is that if the market valued 75% stated reserve of 2 TCF Mean GIIP (from memory) in 2017 at 7p per share with a back to back drill planned and a quick route to market, it will value a fully funded 25% of 8TCF with an imminent drill and route to market as worth more (there are 10% more shares now than in 2017 - again from memory)

And another thing..... (sorry!)

In trying to value Aminex, when it hit 7p after N2 they were said to have 75% of 2TCF. Now they have 25% of 8TCF but are fully funded and with plans more advanced for ffd and production.

My point being that it is worth more now than then, even with licence size reduction.

Sorry stupid mistake. Tz discussing EXporting gas. Not IMporting. Duh.

Agreed, Haggis. Oil. Plus something I should have made clear below, the fag packet $450m increases as route to market becomes clear. And the Aminex route to market is now clear. Pipeline (spur) being built to main pipeline, country discussing importing gas while at the same time the capital has power shortages. Only going one way!

Back of fag packet and possibly out of date but I always reckoned 1TCF in the ground was $400m. Gas has gone up in price (have you heard?) but has it gone up in Tz?

Anyway, my point is that we are currently at 8TCF (which is 2TCF to Aex under the farmout). Seismic results have only ever resulted in increases. This is modern 3D seismic across an enormous area and field.

$450m x 2 plus uplift for future seismic results is a mcap of.....sorry.....gotta go lie down.....

GLA. Our time is approaching.

I only want news of progress/fix. I agree RNS for Rns-sake pointless. But 6-odd weeks on it is not unreasonable to suggest that there might be news, especially given that they are supposed to be producing in Q4 and require stimulation and completed hook-ups before that can happen.

25th August since last update on Southwark A1 drilling.

Surely due some news?

Twalby

A perfectly reasonable question.

My answer (fwiw) is that when Zubair/Ara first announced the farm in to Aminex they were said to be wanting to break into the East African/Tanzanian energy market. They had decided that they would use Aminex as their vehicle to do this. I have always assumed that this was because AEX had in-country relationships that were valuable to a Major like Zubair (but thats me guessing). They have been as good as their word. They have for years owned just below 30% of Aminex (the threshold for a compulsory takeover), have supported with funding and have farmed in.

I do not really pretend to understand their position but I am clear that I like it. What the Zubair involvement does (IMHO)is protect Aminex against any other hostile takeover as the Zubairs would have to support that takeover with their 30% of the votes.

So I think Aminex is safe from hostile takeover on the cheap.

It may be that having proved up some more gas it is Zubair that takes Aminex out themselves but there is no sign of that being their intention.

Hope this helps.