Member Info for edgar222

Https://www.ajbell.co.uk/articles/investmentarticles/273103/gold-hits-new-all-time-high?

Just under 4TCf, Blackgold.

With 8 TCf around Ntorya in total.

And a further 8 tcf in the wider field (that is until further work doubles it again).

Code 2?

Hardnose

I take all your points. All of them well made.

Political risk - once the 25 year licence is granted this diminishes enormously.

Financial risk - the carry is a spend of over $100m before it is exhausted (I can never remember if it is $105m or $140m!)

Operating costs massively reduced for the company. I still believe they have the cash to get to production.

Business/Takeover risk - accepted. But Ara always said from the off they want Aminex as their vehicle for East Africa and everything done so far means I believe them. Who knows why. In country long-established relationships (Aminex were the first in Tz), the full listing in London as a vehicle for Ara's wider business?

Time risk - I think you mean the climate lobby impacting and of course that is a risk. Except that Gas is recognised as an acceptable greener alternative while the transition happens.

We will agree to differ on how close we are to things being in the bag. I am sure my confidence is because of the total transformation (risk included) compared to when I first bought. So is a perspective thing. I am not saying you are buying a blue chip share if you buy Aminex now. I AM saying the risk/reward profile is hard to beat.

Atb

Panch

Could not agree more. Over the years the risk I have taken on here (like all LTHs) has been enormous. That risk has declined and is about to disappear on 25yr licence being granted. By which I mean we are left with operational risk only.

I am determined to reap my reward. I own enough of these for it to be life changing. I have bought so many recently that I am now breaking even at about 1p.

I genuinely hope all the good people on this board who have stuck it out get their rewards too.

The risk in selling is it goes up more. But I honestly think I will always believe Aex can go up more. I know the recent seismic has increased my target price. I also know I have different classes of shares, some to sell on some profit, some medium term and some long term core holding. Don't mind admitting that I am the worst seller in the history of the stock market!

BG interesting. So 25% of 15% is under 4% off Aminex' licence holding if they do back-in?

Https://twitter.com/adrianblomfield/status/1764264064132243847?t=lx5kIW_ku8KzzSmh2lvAdQ&s=19

SQ320

The seismic report does say licence "imminent". Sorry!

BG

Good plan. Doing the same when funds allow. I added very significantly in the run up to Christmas at just above 1p, not believing it would fall to under 0.8p.

History suggests that it is drills that move the dial. But then, that history included AEX being unfunded, uncarried and with no foreseeable hope of income from Ruvuma. So all that is different.

I honestly believe the market will pay attention on the licence being granted. On one cautious view Aminex own nothing at the moment! (Not a view I agree with but I am not going to get in to the legal rights to the licence given past expenditure. Much more compelling is the signing of the GSA. For me)

I will say GLA, but luck has nothing to do with it.

Great work, Roger. Great point. I had overlooked it too.

You made me go back to the report. Of the 55mm barrels of condensate I think approx 35mm are around Ntorya. And that is the area about to go into "reserves" and so be proved up a step further for the purposes of the wider market valuing Aminex. That happens on licence granting/development approval, I believe.

I dont know of this next point but it is noticeable from the report that the condensate numbers for the rest of the licence are much lower than Ntorya. Does it follow that if it is the same geology as Ntorya those numbers will increase as the prospects are proved up by drilling and more work?

I think the main reference point is table 3 on page 18 of the report.

It just gets better and better. Licence - reserves not resources - drill - (several drills?) - production. Free carry.

4p to 20p completely understandable to me.

my bag of *** packet has for years been 8p per share per tcf in the ground. at ntorya aminex have nearly 1 tcf (25% of nearly 4 tcf). more widely on the higher unrisked figures they have nearly 4 tcf.

the route to re-rate is now more obvious than ever imho. there will be spikes and dips along the way - drills being the obvious example - but re-rate it will.

The numbers are incredible. Having now had a chance to read the report it is also fantastic the way they describe the workings on a large number of other prospects and leads. Onshore fan system, stacked prospects that can be drilled with one well.

CH1 has a third target for that drill.

They estimate a 600m gas column at the apex of the Ntorya reservoir.

Could it be any better?

Two snippets that are important in understanding future share price rerates, IMHO:

"Contingent Resources will be matured to Reserves upon formal development approval"

"Interpretation of the new Ruvuma 3D seismic survey has resulted in a significantly better understanding of the resource potential of the Mtwara Licence and the Cretaceous Ntorya Discovery leading to a revision of APT’s internal resource estimates and derisking of planned appraisal and development activities which are scheduled to commence upon the imminent award of a Development Licence for the Ntorya Discovery."

That word again. Imminent.

And for any doubters about the licence being granted, why would the Govt have signed a contract for sale of gas (the GSA) if they were going to pull the plug?

If you cant see the potential in this share at this mcap then you really should give up on investing. Incredible bargain at 2p and its less than half that tonight.

GLA the non idiots.

Roger

Who?

I will give you.7 for them. ;)

Https://twitter.com/EdgarTwo2/status/1756620546773487845?t=6Vkt4cdmZXcc26AJ5l7FTg&s=19

Ahh ok, stockcheque

Well remembered

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Wonderer

Totally agree about the CPR having the potential to add value and underpin a real re-rate.

500BCF now. (Major) Operator estimate of 2TCf net to Aminex. The share price reflects none of that, not even the first figure. That is not illogical of the market given the absence of a licence (and therefore ownership). But the licence and ownership confirmation plus an upgrade in numbers is potentially explosive. And those are only the start. Exciting low risk drill and production to follow. (On the last drill this went 1p - 7p and the next one is bigger and less risky as it is appraisal not exploration).