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Ufo
Very interesting post re valuations and thank you. Its the debate about how to value AEX that tantalises. Reserves or production. In any event we all know its worth much more than current mcap on either basis. On whatever basis I do it I get very easily to 8p - 10p plus but can see an argument for 20p medium term. If the further 6 well programme does happen I think production might be quickly much much more than that 40mmscf/d that is the minimum under the farmout.
I am very reassured by today's confirmation of spud date. I was skeptical. I still am a bit. Its August and they have only just received the data. That said, I am a stone cold believer in the Aminex value story and any skepticism I feel about the spud date is only a timing issue, not one of fundamentals. A slippage in the spud date would not make me sell and it would probably be a buying opportunity as the traders leave again.
Exciting times ahead and not too far away now.
GLA
At 60mmscf/d sales of £4 per therm (if happening) are worth circa £1.2m per day to IOG net of farmout 50%.
As we know, doubling production in Q4, all being well. Thats the winter. Prices higher?
Mad cash generation.
I have said before and will say again, it is getting awfully close to spud date for seismic still to be happening.
And yes I have read the (helpful) posts on here about modern seismic and speed of interpretation.
But still.
I will be relieved when it is done and November spud is confirmed.
Fighting through some resistance arounnd here. Once past 37p off to the races....
Nbp 244p (if I am looking at the right website)
He confirms southwark will "approximately double" current production. So in Q4 2022. I think thats the first such confirmation?
https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1549840911512870914?s=21&t=2iC-ykeIuDu1_lH0YOgU0A
It does really feel like little GWMO could be on the cusp of something.
I should not be surprised, its why I bought in the first place.
Great drill results are the game changer but I am almost more excited about production news. If the risk of dilution is gone and GWMO can self fund that would be an incredible step.
Fingers crossed.
Denis
Depends on the terms of the farmout contract. I dont know whether they have a veto over their partner selling to a new operator. I dont know whether that is industry standard. I would be surprised if it was. But I dont know.
Denos
CalE dont hold shares in IOG so would not have a vote. They hold 50% of the licence.
Lol Tanz no apologies needed. Not a day or any other sort of trader in Aminex. Have been in and out of IOG profitably and brought my average down there. (Not recently as re-rate coming there). But not Aminex. As I say, I probably should have sold more over the years but I havent and have made my peace with it.
GLA
Tanz
You think I am day trading Aminex?
I take that as a real compliment. Because I wouldn't know how! Only time I have ever sold some was in 2017 at 7p. I declared it then and should have sold a lot more then!
Jetty
I agree. And obvious newsflow for years especially with a business friendly govt in place.
The decision when to sell gets harder! I had a target in mind but the gas in place numbers have recently risen, may do again on seismic and again on drilling. Then serious newsflow and action before production. Historic talk of another 6 or so wells. And the chance of oil in the background. Which means my target price is going up. I have so many now I should plan a topslice.
I suppose the other option is to trade the news and anticipate spikes as it goes up generally. But I am rubbish at that!
Good problem to have.
Ggis
Agreed!
Best
Andrew Austin of Kistos/Serica shenanigans.
Is that the same Andrew Austin who tried to buy IOG while he was at RRE?
Hmmmm!
Kist and sqz getting together. Both touted as a fit for IOG. Interesting times
You could not have any of my golden tickets for 4p.
Got to be worth 400m mcap? Closer to 8-10p? If Cove is a valid comparator it could be worth double that on a buy out.
Its the reserves that will propel this not the production. The numbers are staggering and are just going to get bigger.