Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
And another thing..... (sorry!)
In trying to value Aminex, when it hit 7p after N2 they were said to have 75% of 2TCF. Now they have 25% of 8TCF but are fully funded and with plans more advanced for ffd and production.
My point being that it is worth more now than then, even with licence size reduction.
Agreed, Haggis. Oil. Plus something I should have made clear below, the fag packet $450m increases as route to market becomes clear. And the Aminex route to market is now clear. Pipeline (spur) being built to main pipeline, country discussing importing gas while at the same time the capital has power shortages. Only going one way!
Back of fag packet and possibly out of date but I always reckoned 1TCF in the ground was $400m. Gas has gone up in price (have you heard?) but has it gone up in Tz?
Anyway, my point is that we are currently at 8TCF (which is 2TCF to Aex under the farmout). Seismic results have only ever resulted in increases. This is modern 3D seismic across an enormous area and field.
$450m x 2 plus uplift for future seismic results is a mcap of.....sorry.....gotta go lie down.....
GLA. Our time is approaching.
I only want news of progress/fix. I agree RNS for Rns-sake pointless. But 6-odd weeks on it is not unreasonable to suggest that there might be news, especially given that they are supposed to be producing in Q4 and require stimulation and completed hook-ups before that can happen.
25th August since last update on Southwark A1 drilling.
Surely due some news?
Twalby
A perfectly reasonable question.
My answer (fwiw) is that when Zubair/Ara first announced the farm in to Aminex they were said to be wanting to break into the East African/Tanzanian energy market. They had decided that they would use Aminex as their vehicle to do this. I have always assumed that this was because AEX had in-country relationships that were valuable to a Major like Zubair (but thats me guessing). They have been as good as their word. They have for years owned just below 30% of Aminex (the threshold for a compulsory takeover), have supported with funding and have farmed in.
I do not really pretend to understand their position but I am clear that I like it. What the Zubair involvement does (IMHO)is protect Aminex against any other hostile takeover as the Zubairs would have to support that takeover with their 30% of the votes.
So I think Aminex is safe from hostile takeover on the cheap.
It may be that having proved up some more gas it is Zubair that takes Aminex out themselves but there is no sign of that being their intention.
Hope this helps.
Totally agree JH77.
Put my money where my mouth is and bought more (nearly doubled my holding). Even got them at the low today.
It seems to me (fwiw, which is not much as I am not technically qualified in any way including reservoir management) that the current constrained production at the current average sell price for gas underpins the share price. The risks on Blythe significantly reduced (for me anyway) on that RNS. The fault is not geological but a drilling accident and therefore likely to be a one off. Even if they dont fix it they can produce at a constrained rate. We have another well on production and Southwark coming onstream. So the future potential upside is enormous and (Imho) not priced in at these levels.
My average was 9p and I have now averaged up twice at 28p and today at whatever it was (18p ish).
So for me this morning's RNS has reduced the risk in the Blythe reservoir by making it manageable and, in any event, self contained to that well. Production underpins the share and the upside is obvious. Thats a risk reward balance I like.
GLA
PF builder
I agree with every word.
I just want to point out to new people that the enormous target is already discovered and proved up. Buying Aminex now is not a bet on drill bit success. They already have a massive gas field that is of commercial size (and a Major developing it and no further cost to Aminex). The issue is how much bigger is it.
It went to 7p on the last drill results. The next drill was meant to be back to back. 5 years on and it still hasnt happened. Last drill was 75% of licence but that proportion of costs too. Now 25% and fully carried, no cost to significant production. Shares in issue roughly the same, about 10% more now than then.
If CH1 appraises upwards the gas already discovered and then discovers more below 7p will be just the start on those results, IMHO.
Data for drill location mid September. Then evaluation. Then new drill pad (if it moves location). I no longer believe they can spud in November. If location does not move with the 3D then they might be able to.
Not relevant to the story but relevant to timings, expectations and possible dips before the inevitable upward curve that is the CH1 drill.
Operational difficulties are not a problem for me and are to be expected.
What shocks me is the revenue number being so low.
Even allowing for revenue really only being for 2Q because of the delay to production (though it is expressed as 1H revenue) this is significantly below my private expectations and public (on this board) calculations.
Been away. Just wanted to say. The recent comments on here about arms being bitten off for 55p are way wide of the mark. With current production and income (soon to be confirmed in financial results), southwark, current gas prices and winter coming 55p is way too cheap.
We can argue about comparators, reserves v income until we are blue in the face. But the growing cash pile and reducing debt pile will become obvious and will not allow much argument.