The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks for the replies(so far) and I agree with all your points.
In identifying the 3 points I have I was trying to identify company changing/making news. For example, a 3d seismic resource upgrade and confirmation of 8TCF of gas, moving it from estimates or Giip to reserves/resources or something more proven is exactly what the institutions and market are looking for. Same with production/income. Same with drills.
There are many other bits of news. GSAis one. But given the Govt attitude to Aminex now, by which I mean their roaring "GET ON WITH IT" I just dont believe paperwork is the big issue it once was.
I repeat, I am not disagreeing with the replies so far. I am just trying to identify the major bits of news that will get us to my 12p.
These are good problems to have ;)
Three major catalysts upcoming. We know the date for 2 of them. Each one of them potentially company making but all three coming at the same time.
3d seismic results mid year. Results just published confirm resources / reserves upgrade to accompany. Just confirmation of the operator estimates (8TCF) would be enormous. But a chance of hogher numbers? (Chance of lower numbers too). The current Giip is 2TCf.
Production. Sales, income. October 2023. The Govt pressing for this now.
CH1 drill. They know the location backed up by the 3d seismic. Later this year is the closest we have to a date.
They repeatedly say 2023 is an enormous and decisive year for Aminex and on the basis of the above that is true.
The other snippet that is not a major catalyst but just shows where the company is placed in Tanzania is that they are trying to give up their Nyuni licence and the Govt is refusing and asking them to carryon via a farmout! Speaks volumes.
Very happy. Fully loaded already. Have been buying quite a lot more recently. But I cant promise I have stopped.
https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1652052713071337474?s=61&t=qBcoKadtpeaziPRqZIXyxg
Aminex. #AEX. They can't spell it out any clearer than this. Low risk high impact fully funded field development and further drilling with eye wateringly larger numbers of already discovered gas.
'Nuff said.
Break even for IOG if it remains the same as at FiD is 45p
I read it as saying although the gold price looks ok/high when compared to equitiesit is low. So much further to go.
I think it is also saying gold miners are undervalued compared to historyic prices. So much further to go.
...from AJ Bell on gold producers and gold relative to stock market....
"One thing is certain. Gold is trading toward the lower end of its range relative to global equities (as benchmarked by the FTSE All-World since its inception in 1994) and gold miners are trading at near-historic lows relative to the metal’s price (as benchmarked by the HUI and its inception in 1997)."
The carry is describes as a development carry. And the £65m represents 80% of the costs of phase 2. So not quite a free carry, there is a cost of phase 2 to IOG, but still excellent!
(See farm out announcement 2019)
Hardnose
You make a fair point. And it is another reason why the share is so difficult to value.
CH1 appraisal plus 3d seismic will vastly increase knowledge and with the pipeline actually built and working there is no reason why we wont have serious reserve numbers come October production, is there? (Genuine question!)
So to answer the original question, yes they have struckk proven gas and it has flowed at commercial rates.
What no one knows yet is how much gas there is. GIIP is 2TCF. Operator estimates are 8TCF. The next drill (CH1) is an appraisal well (now) and the results of that well together with 3D seismic mean that we will know much more soon.
There is no doubt that there is commercial gas. The Govt is building a pipeline so it can flow to market.
Whether it is 2 or 8 TCF the numbers are enormous. 300BCF in the north sea is described as "enormous".
So Mid March for CH1 drill location. Mid year for 3d seismic results more globally. Location might mean rig contract.
Presumably will mean estimate of CH1 target size? Thoughts?
Difficult to know what will be the big share price mover in the coming list of news. I guess it does not matter! I am not going anywhere. Just getting impatient (again) as the finish line is in sight (again).
I am hoping for progress on production and drilling of CH1 and also that in the background they are planning the next 6 drills for full field development and just carry on drilling agter CH1.
GLA.