Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
I am not sure either, Northern. The technical/execution side of the market makes my brain freeze when people explain it.
But I think we can expect a lot of stale bulls being tied into Aminex for years against their will. Promising themselves that when it gets to Xp they will sell. And that will happen the whole way up. But then, thats what a healthy amrket is no?
We have been here before, several times. The 1.4p sort of range has been the ceiling without further news to propel it.
Market (and us) waiting to see if it is happening this time or will be put back again.
I am confident it is happening but whether its Christmas or Easter I dont care. Aminex is when not if.
What you can take from this move on no news is the potential. When it moves it moves hard and quick.
I expect the regulatory stuff first. Scir deal completion. 25 year licence. Everything tidied up, Ara know where they are legally. Then its all systems go.
Seismic is massive news and how we judge future value. CH1 is massive news. Production is massive news. Each one of those topics has a number of other pieces of newsflow around it and it could het very busy here soon.
GLA
Was asked this by a non-share junkie I got into Aminex.
My answer was the rise on no news but news getting closer is the market believing it is finally happening. September but really Q4 is the crunch time. Unless they put it back again. And there is no sign of that. Scir deal completion and 25yr licence and we are off to the races. The Major (Ara/Zubair) are playing a canny game with the authorities. They may delay it again but Aex is when not if.
Fwiw.
GLA.
I am expecting licence to produce/mill approval this month. The way they talked of production being up and running this year I am hoping they startup that production trial and error process in September. Too optimistic?
Tanz
I have always enjoyed our exchanges and value your opinion. But you are importing the rubbish from the trolls into my LSE Aex board experience. When I have assiduously filtered them out. Please stop.
Scir RNS confirming Aminex production timescales for this year.
Its going to come as a shock when the acceleration of news kicks in. To get to production by Decemeber and milestone payments from revenue to Scir by January there is an awful lot of news to happen.
If only we had a list of whats incoming somewhere. Anyone?
Good luck to all unfiltered ones.
;)
blackgold
have said it enough and have bored you all enough so ine last time....
back of my *** packet has $450m for 1tcf in the ground. based on cove's sale back in the day and other less scientific things.
and aminex have 2tcf if the operator estimate of 8bn tcf is correct. whats that? over 20p per share? thats assuming the mcap is $900m. $6bn is a bit more.
Sqz
Thank you. Clearest yet.
Good news (to me).
I particularly like the move to more conventional and cheaper to bring onstream assets. Southwark a big lesson.
Cash lower but income stream confirmed and we wait autumn gas price curve.
Quick reaction before work is I read this as progress on all fronts.
Including massive progress on regulatory/licence issues, which are the main source of delay historically.
Slight change from 1st gas moving October 2023 to year end but that is better than the last RNS which talked about early 2024.
Calder
Thank you for those figures.
I think you are being conservative (for reasons I understand). Gas price at 80p is the predicted minimum going forward. Condensate sales to be added. 40mmscf/d yet to be confirmed but even without H1 and the water issues is at 42.
All of which means (to me) that the bond is probably repayable but if not repayable in full is certainly re-financable with a large down payment to the bondholders from revenue.
The market does not believe that yet. That assessment of risk and disconnect from the market which is awaiting more certainty is where the PI makes money.
GLA
Fwiw I believe AEX have no control over the newsflow. This is entirely to be expected with their non-operator status. When they get news they have to RNS it if it is material. What that means is that they don't know whether there will be an update prior to the AGM (as I am sure they would like).
But updates are due. The seismic is due "mid year" and it does not get any more mid year than late June. The Scir deal has been put back a number of times and is overdue. I think the 25 year licence is awaiting that. On production it is not (for me) the time it takes to lay a pipeline but the compensation and legal issues around the land use (as mentioned in the last RNS). It is also worth noting that the last update talked of production later than October and seemed to suggest January 2024. Oct-Jan does not matter to me given the size of the potential prize.
There is an enormous amount of upcoming newsflow on all fronts. All of it material to the share price. But the three that will really move the dial (IMHO) are firstly seismic confirmation of the 2-8 TCF target at Ntorya (not the wider Ruvuma area, which is being properly mapped for the first time). I have no feel for ARA and whether they are realistic/optimistic/pessimistic in their operator estimates (of 8 TCF based on legacy 2D). I see no reason for them to over-egg it. They have no shareholders, are not raising money based on resources and I am prepared to accept they are just telling it as they see it. 3D seismic confirmation of 8TCF (2TCF to AEX) or even more will confirm this as a world class asset (again this is Ntorya only not the wider Ruvuma area). It will also start the process of moving the numbers from estimates and GIIP to reserves and resources. That process will continue with the drill bit. It cannot be overstated how important that is to the market's valuation.
Secondly, the drill, target size, rig contract, spudding etc.
Thirdly the regulatory issues. The 25 year licence is huge and is awaiting the Scir sign off (IMHO). That will largely take out the Govt and bureaucratic delays.
I am properly all in. I have quadrupled my holding since the spike in 2017. If my belief in the size of the prize here is right or even half-right this is a potentially life changing share for me. I already have 3-4 bags (not realised) from my purchases at 0.4p. That said there is a way to go until I hit my intial purchase in the 20s!
I have said it before (so forgive the repetition) these last few yards with the finish line in sight are the hardest.
Good luck to all the regulars here that I don't have on filter. Eyes on the prize.
Fwiw my take on the bond is that technical breaches might really matter if they spook the bondholders who have to protect their investment. Breach. Call in. Equity wiped out/damaged is the fear.
But the late RNS reads to me as though the technical breach risk is NOT spooking the bondholders. Probably because they can see the answer (and their money) is coming down the track. Like we can see, too. Simples.
GLA
Baramara
Rofl.
I have always thought Aminex are safe from takeover because Ara own 30%, are the operator and when they first bought into both Aminex and then the licence said they wanted to use Aminex as their vehicle for getting into East Africa.
Like Sainsburys saying they wanna use Jim's corner store for breaking into the market of a new country.
So far Ara as good as their word.
1meteor
Correct. But the income from sales wont stop and wont be spent on development as much as it is currently. Plus, phase 2 will increase income as well.