Member Info for edgar222

Think I am longer than 16 years! First buy circa 22p! Average about 0.8p. Long slow road but life changing profit just round the corner.

Cheers Stuart. But its an academic profit. They arent getting my golden tickets until its multiples higher. My best ourchases were 0.4p and I didn't sell them at 2p on licence news.

I don't believe Ara / Zubair need to share a rig.

It might happen, I suppose. But I don't believe it is likely or necessary.

Budget source....

https://x.com/EdgarTwo2/status/1937956264589594865

Have just topped up. Could not buy any this morning.

TZ Parliament has passed the budget including the pipeline costs. Contracts, pipeline, production and re-rate incoming.

GLA

Yes. Mill not even asked about. Delicate contract negotiations about to be concluded or a dead duck?

Https://x.com/mining_great/status/1937424876920590512

I am sorely tempted to top up. It would significantly average down my buy price. But, as always, no point in doing that if the share is just going down.

Placement done. This summer season's activities funded. Tungsten, Copper, Silver and Gold. Early stage portfolio looks like a real prospect but then it always has done. For me I would be buying on production news. The last news on the mill was dated 23rd April. It said:

"The Company is in early-stage discussions with financing parties and has identified and received initial proposals from two mine engineering houses with the right qualifications to manage this phase and subsequently monitor commercial operations.

The Board of Great Western considers that third party financing and the introduction of a dedicated, specialist team for the project will accelerate the expansion of the mill's operational capacity to generate meaningful gold revenues without further recourse to shareholders for this purpose, enabling the Company to remain focused on its highly promising copper projects and gold exploration prospects."

So I guess a top up now is a blind swing at something coming of this soon? But I am tempted.

Views? Am I a lunatic or very wise? ;)

SC

Agreed. I have always wondered what the real flow rates are. They had to mud up urgently because of the enormous pressure (and therefore rate the gas poured out). So I have always thought there is a chance of even higher flows. From memory I think I am talking about N2.

Base case 8-10p.

Depending on positive drill results and future field development up to 36p (see Prospero's excellent comparison post below)

What I find really interesting is the different approaches to valuation all leading to the same figures in my head!!

All of those figures blown out of the water on commercial oil being found.

All of those figures blown out of the water on there being much more gas than estimated (perhaps unlikely given the excellence of the 3d seismic and the already known drill results).

Https://x.com/WilsonMakembe/status/1922517228420821245?t=VJKramq8-38VSNHss_xkpQ&s=19

So nothing very majorly new in the results. But a good summary and round up. And re-reading them it occurs to me what a mega-project Ntorya now is. 280mmscf/d and 14 wells. Worth waiting for.

The one word I don't like is "subsequent" to describe the CH1 drill as subsequent to the pipeline. It is ambiguous (to me) and might not mean that drill is awaiting the pipeline hook up before spudding. But it might mean that. Makes no odds to me as I am here for that drill and production. And although I am used to the delays like all long termers I would like them to get ON with it (like all long termers).

Pretty sure I have read that Knights have left twitter. I don't use instagram. I think I can only have seen that announcement on twitter, so it must be find-able. Might mention other social media?

Can I just add in another unexpected possible upside.

All these deals for export of gas. And for industrial use gas. Which can only be our gas. The price we get for that gas may well be higher. Warning - I am not up to speed on what the GSA says re the terms so this may be wrong. I don't think we have that detail?

Rofl Hardnose!

I don't feel I can put any final number on it. But on a bidding war basis (using Cove) 10p plus. If the income basis is approaching that too then that is telling us something about the base case, I think.

I am very bad at selling shares, especially these ones. Because I believe in the enormity of this gas field and the (smaller) chance of oil.

I do understand Stockcheque's point about dividends but that is even less certain (for me). All sorts of reasons why a Company does not declare dividends. Or does pay some but not the size hoped for. Further investments etc. So that is way too uncertain for me.

So a solidifying income and capital base case for valuation. The evidence will improve as more work is done. The immediate drill and production plans. Plus the chance of serious spikes on unexpected news (Oil. CH1 being much bigger than hoped.) Free carry, no dilution. No debt. Non operator, expert Major operating. The perfect share to buy right now? Obvious innit?

Hardnose

I think the perennial issue with valuation is whether you do it on an income or capital basis. By which I mean a buyout basis. If you think of the Cove buyout that was approx $400m per 1 TCF in the ground. We are not far off 1 TCF on our 25% basis now. So approaching 8-10p per share. Honestly, I think that share price level is just the start.

Rns. 13 wells to come. Massive.

Lovely Roger I will take that, obviously.

But will be gutted if spud is put back that far. Call me naive!

Apart from the 5 bags from the lows, you mean?

Small top up yesterday over 2 purchases and it moved the share price up briefly!