Member Info for edgar222

Not the same place. The permit to move spoil heaps was a federal bureau. NDEP is a state bureau.

This is from the depth of my Aminex memory....

But many years ago around the excitement of the Cove deal and offshore gas being converted to LNG the numbers being bandies about for the the price achieved for the sale of LNG were very large. I have no idea what the rate for LNG is now. We have all noted that the recent RNS is silent on the rates being paid for the gas under the GSA. Does anyone know if we can assume that the LNG still sells for a very much higher rate than pumped gas?

The downside to the mobile LNG unit being discussed is the amount of throughput that can be achieved, even with several units. But some income is better than none and if it pleases the authorities to do it I am all for it.

I remain puzzled by the radio silence from Aminex if this is a plan. So I remain sceptical about it happening. At most it is a Memorandum of Understanding and we all know the time it takes to get from that level of Government approval to licences and deals. But if it can happen before the Q4 pipeline ready moment then it can only be a positive.

Wonderer

Just been looking at Chariot. Lots of caveats about looking for a comparator because every Company story is different and, for example, the Chariot acquisition of other (renewables) businesses does muddy the waters a bit. But.

I started at 3.9.20, share price 1.62p and looked between there and the peak on 3.5.22, share price 24p.

What is interesting is the way the share price reacted to news. On CPR upgrade of 148% the share price went up 2.7 times to 15.9.20. (Aminex upgrade to 8tcf is a x4 upgrade and therefore considerably bigger).

It is then difficult to work out why the share had another peak at 11.5p on 9.11.20. Market absorbing the news? But in any event the delayed reaction (2 months) to the CPR upgrade is interesting. If that is the reason, it is difficult to see much else in the RNS news around that time.

They announce a significant gas discovery in January 2022, 3 months before the peak in April. At that time the share price at 24p has gone up 14.7 times.

I have not looked at market cap, I was more interested in market reaction. But they had 379m shares in issue in May 2020 and 827m shares in Feb 2022. So the increase in market cap is more significant than the 14.7 times increase in share price.

If any lessons are to be learned from this it may be that this is an example of the market taking its time to get to the highest value after good news, both in 2020 and 2022 in Chariot's case.

Wonderer

Really appreciate it. Anything to educate me on how to sell shares and Aminex in particular. They buying is easy. Will look properly but at first blush the Aminex numbers are bigger?

You are all very welcome.

Been so focused on the mill and production that it is good to remind myself of the multi stranded nature of GWMO's assets. Which is why I bought in the first place.

Interesting, Wonderer.

Am off to read up about Chariot. As we all know, CH1 is appraisal. The exploration element (the lower jurassic) having been put to one side for now. You are right, though. The combination of 3D across the area plus knowing what the pressure is should make for some interesting numbers in the CPR.

How much not whether it exists. When not if. Fully funded no brainer.

I agree. I read the RNS as drill ready to go.

I am sceptical about the mini LNG. But I suppose ARa might have a plan Aex don't know about? Why not in the RNS?

Https://twitter.com/mining_great/status/1745401109957537963?t=Y6lAk-HEeRCM9ZjgEvhYiQ&s=19

They process 350,000 cubic feet per day. Aminex aiming to pump 40 million cubic feet per day.

The licence is the big one for me. They would not have signed a GSA without at least believing the licence is coming. Are we expecting licence news wrapped up with GSA, cant see any mention of it on the tweets.

...that is me done. Fully loaded.

Said that before though

I meant GWMO.

I hope GFWMO get their licence too. ;)

The agency responsible for the environmental permit is the NDEP. Nevada Division of Environmental Protection.

Their website shows permissions, licences and activities as they are granted. Remember there is a time difference to the UK. All I can say is they seem to be active. 3 new permissions and news items granted last night (UK time). 4 granted on the 5th January. Fingers crossed they are getting through the backlog and really are prioritising GFWMO.

GLA

You may be right, Northern.

But remember....the production and the appraisal are decoupled and running in parallel. I accept "crawling" more apt than running but there are two significant newsflow-laden streams that we are all waiting for. I continue to hope that the licence and works approvals will be the dam bursting. The bureaucrats out and the companies free to get on with it.

Wonderer

Our numbers are not too different. In my head I have £400m per 1 TCF in the ground. Billions if it could all be sold at once. Also based on Cove (don't know Char). Now bear with me while I fantasize.

4.8bn shares in issue last I checked. Ish. £400m is 8.3p per share. So 2 Tcf is 16.6p per share. 2 Tcf is also the gas net to Aminex based on the operator estimate.

At the moment Aex owns nothing because of the licence lapsing. So the market has put a value on the discovered gas (call it 0.5Tcf or 4.15p per share on the above basis) that is discounted to the headline gas numbers. Arguably when the licence is granted the gas in ground is 4.15p per share. Then, if that moves to 2TCf to Aminex after the CpR is announced that is worth up to 16p per share.

This is just another way of restating an old argument on here. The above is all based on reserves valuations as the Cove deal was (it had to be because the Cove gas was not being produced and still is not). Others will argue income based calculations are more correct. They will cite Wentworth and Orca. But here is the thing. I think the size of the Aex gas field is of strategic importance at anywhere between 2 - 8 Tcf. It will easily cover the domestic and industrial market even as that grows. It will then be used for export. It is massive. It is precisely the sort of field Majors will want, when proved up.

Even the above numbers are conservative I think and will increase as the gas gets closer to market.

But lets say I am wrong and you want income and p/e ratios. Whats the correct p/e? 10? 20? Even that produces many multiples of this share price. And that is underwritten by the massive reserves (which Wen never was).

For all those reasons I have increased my holding by 50% (in shares held) since the Scir deal was announced. Money where big mouth is. If I am wrong I am wrong but it will take a major disrupting and unforeseen event for me to be wrong now. Which is possible but not likely.

I ask again. What is the risk in holding Aminex? This is not discovery drilling. This is a proven field being appraised and the Company is fully funded.

(More fed up with the delays than I have ever bee, btw)

And thats a worry, Blackgold.

Ara finally decide that it is too big a gas field to keep Aminex in the game. Yes the full London share listing is valuable to them but it is not as valuable as 2TCf of gas (25% of 8). To have come so far and get taken out on the cheap would be gutting. (For the reasons given repeatedly over the years and based on their actions I don't think this is the plan. But it is a risk).

....out of this over the weekend....

There. I said it.

Https://twitter.com/TanzaniaInsight/status/1742939256681550052?t=2Zeh0OtYnYMy82i7ilU8ig&s=19

Wonoderer

Thank you. As I remembered it.

Leaky news today?

Wonderer

Agree with everything uou say so this is only a small quibble.

I don't expect CH1 to be a different licence regime to the 25 year development licence. It is all wrapped up together. Not separate. At least that is my understanding and expectation.