Member Info for EarEyeAm

I'm not sure if this has been posted before, but this is Lansdowne's claim through ECT being tracked by ITLAW so worth bookmarking the page as this is where the case details will appear.

Lansdowne Oil & Gas plc v. Republic of Ireland

Case type:

International Investment Agreement

Investment treaty: Energy Charter Treaty (ECT)

Applicable legal instruments: Energy Charter Treaty (ECT)

https://www.italaw.com/cases/14380

Further to my last two posts, Tunisia still has until the April court hearing date to make an EARLY settlement offer that's acceptable to the Zenith Energy Directors.

Once the hearing is completed and one final follow up option to submit further evidence/legal points, the Arbitrators then go into secret session of deliberation. The process from hearing to decision is in place and no communication is made between them and the parties involved until the decision is announced, by which time it is clearly too late for Tunisia to make and EARLY settlement offer because Zenith will have the decision.

The whole point of EARLY settlement is that it happens BEFORE the deliberation secret session begins, as by that time in the process it is too late to make EARLY settlement.

It's up to the Tunisia Lawyers to tell Tunisia if they are unlikely to win the case so make an early settlement offer because it could be a huge amount more if the arbitration panel go the way they think it will go. Zenith have multiple legal and financial loss adjustment experts that all agree on the merits of the claim and on the amount being claimed, so I can't see how the Tunisia lawyers will have any confidence that they can win the case, although Tunisia is extremely arrogant and don't want to concede victory to Zenith, surely they are not that stupid that they'll stick their heads in the sand to end up with a potentially $869.44m (that being the $572.65m plus interest at 14% compounded monthly as per ICC-1), when they could settle early for say $350m, plus the ICC-1 win and something for ICC-2.

Should Tunisia decide to take the potentially much cheaper option and save themselves hundreds of millions, I'd expect to hear about it in February or March, so that payment can be made and legal action terminated before it's at the point of no return.

Thanks Teddy for the link, back at you with a much more detailed analysis here https://www.ainvest.com/news/lithium-cycle-structural-demand-policy-driven-volatility-2602/

74% from the current circa $2,000/tonne would take the price to $3,480, which is $480 above the point where Ghana receives a 12% Royalty, that will certainly make them very happy and I'm sure they'll get wind of the UBS note.

It could all get very heated very quickly once Ratification is secured and Ewoyaa becomes a ready-to-build Mine!!

As I've said before on here, a bid from CATL or BYD for Ewoyaa or Atlantic Lithium following Ratification is quite possible, because their mining production in China is being capped by the Government to stop companies selling Lithium unprofitably, but maybe like the Venezuela Oil and the global Rare Earths situation they will have to watch out for moves from Trump.

"Lithium is recognized as a critical mineral by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and international bodies due to its essential role in energy storage, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and, consequently, national security and economic stability. It is part of the 2022 U.S. final list of 50 critical minerals and listed on the European Union's critical raw materials list."

"China owns the EV market; of the 18.5 million electric vehicles sold globally last year, more than 11 million were sold in China, according to UK research firm Rho Motion. “This is just very decisive; it’s not going to go back,” said Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Compared to the start and stop rollout of electric vehicle policy in the US, EVs have become firmly entrenched in China."

"A global supply security dynamic is also emerging. In the United States, a new bill creating a $2.5 billion stockpile of critical minerals, including lithium, is lifting US buying prospects."

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/08/climate/china-venezuela-oil-demand-electric-vehicles

"China has long been one of Venezuela’s biggest customers for oil. But its hunger for that oil is waning, as the country pulls off a stunningly fast transition to electric vehicles.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/08/climate/china-venezuela-oil-demand-electric-vehicles

"US government invests $1.6bn for stake in rare earths firm"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgxrvln4qeo

"About 20 countries including G7 states in talks on rare earths including calls for US to guarantee minimum price"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/feb/01/us-uk-eu-australia-critical-minerals-rare-earths-g7-minimum-price

Now clearly Tunisia not paying Zenith what it wins from ICSID is not going to cause all of that damage, but Zenith issuing Tunisia with a default instantly changes their "long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at 'B-'" to a worse rating that then causes a chain reaction of damage.

Tunisia have been trying to avoid a default like the plague and will need to keep doing that, including paying Zenith Energy off.

I don't believe the $9m owed for ICC-1 is big enough to declare a default, it's also not a claim based on an International Treaty so again not a Sovereign Default, but ICSID is both.

Tunisia will pay the ICSID claim, I'm 100% certain of that.

ICSID is a claim against an International treaty. Non-payment would see Zenith claim a Sovereign Default against Tunisia, which would wreck Tunisia's precarious market ratings, making it very difficult for them to raise money internationally and, it would make their interest rates shoot up, causing hyperinflation.

Read this:

"As of January 28, 2026, Fitch Ratings affirmed Tunisia's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at 'B-' with a Stable Outlook. This rating, which was upgraded in September 2025, reflects reduced short-term default risks but highlights continued structural challenges, including high external debt, significant financing needs, and weak governance indicators."

You see, the rating is based on the risk of a default, that being a Sovereign Default. There's no way on Earth they are going to risk a default.

More on that:

A sovereign default by Tunisia would likely trigger a severe economic and financial crisis, characterized by potential state bankruptcy, a collapse of the local currency, and a severe shortage of essential goods. It would limit access to international financial markets, damage the banking sector, and likely result in significant social unrest and increased migration pressure on Europe.

Key consequences of a potential Tunisian default include:

Economic Collapse & Shortages: A default could exacerbate existing shortages of staple foods, fuel, and medicines, worsening the living conditions of citizens.

Banking Sector Crisis: A default on government debt would severely impact the domestic banking system, with potential losses to banks estimated in the billions, hindering their ability to function.

Currency Devaluation & Inflation: The Tunisian dinar would likely face significant depreciation, further driving up inflation and eroding purchasing power.

Social and Political Unrest: Economic hardship and reduced public services could trigger widespread protests and, as highlighted by the International Crisis Group, potentially lead to challenges to the government.

International Isolation: A default would make it difficult or expensive for the government to borrow money in the future, as noted by Investopedia.

Without a deal with the IMF or other external financing to stabilize the economy, the risk of a disorderly default remains high.

Yes, for sure the 12-14 years doesn't apply to the Zenith mines that have already had much of the work done already.

I was more interested in the way Nuclear must pay whatever price Uranium costs, and that production is intentionally restricted.

As I said last week, I could see Uranium going up to $200/lb.

100TCF is actually irrelevant to Aminex, as it doesn't hold licences over the whole Ruvuma area they are talking about. Maybe there's 10TCF in the licences Aminex hold, with 90% of that still to prove up.

Well there's targets outside of Ntorya that we know of, as they were shown on the 2D Seismic but were not included in the final Ntorya field for 3D Seismic and development. Sudi and Likonde are just two examples of targets that aren't in the Ntorya Licence.

From the last financial report, Net Assets were £65.63m. That did not include the Solar Portfolio as that was only valued (independently) more recently. So Zenith Energy is worth about £91.63m in a fire sale, so at the current Market Capitalisation of £24.34m it is 73.5% below it's Net Assets, with no value whatsoever factored in for 'the business', or the $10m from ICC-1, or the other two Arbitrations. Zenith Energy would need to increase by 276% just to reach the value of its assets.

From Crux investor https://youtu.be/xSV7kYjuCLY

Synopsis:

Recording date: 12th January 2026

As nuclear energy gains renewed attention amid the global energy transition, uranium investors must grasp fundamental market dynamics that differ dramatically from other commodities. Chris Frostad, a uranium exploration veteran, recently outlined critical misconceptions that can lead investors astray in this complex sector.

Unlike oil or gas, uranium demand is remarkably stable and price-inelastic. Nuclear reactors require precisely scheduled fuel loads regardless of market prices, with utilities committed to 30-40 year operational cycles. Even at $200 per pound, reactors consume the same amount of uranium because fuel costs represent a small fraction of overall nuclear power generation expenses. Headlines about AI data centers and small modular reactors generate excitement, but these developments take years to translate into actual demand since reactor construction timelines are measured in decades.

The supply side presents even greater challenges. Uranium mines cannot simply increase output when prices rise—they operate at optimized throughput levels based on ore grades and milling capacity. Restarting idle facilities requires years of plant reoptimisation, equipment upgrades, regulatory reapproval, and rehiring specialized personnel who have moved to other careers. New discoveries face 12-14 year timelines from exploration to production, involving sequential permitting, environmental studies, and financing hurdles that cannot be accelerated.

Industry supply forecasts often mislead investors by citing theoretical capacity rather than realistic production. Actual output historically runs at 70-75% of stated capacity, creating a significantly larger supply deficit than commonly understood. Meanwhile, accessible uranium inventory is far smaller than headline figures suggest—strategic stockpiles held by China and India aren't available to Western utilities, and much material remains tied up in fuel conversion cycles.

Geopolitical fragmentation compounds these constraints, with Russian supply becoming questionable and Chinese-controlled material unavailable to Western markets. For investors, this means carefully differentiating between companies with proven resources in established jurisdictions like Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin versus speculative plays unlikely to reach production within relevant timeframes. Success requires understanding that high prices cannot override physics or compress development timelines.

Current Market Cap £24.34m.

Valuation 'as is' of the Solar portfolio circa £26m.

Add Italian profit making Gas/Electric.

Add Uranium.

THEN AND ONLY THEN, add the arbitrations.

It is completely negligent to ignore how undervalued Zenith Energy is based on its assets. They are worth multiples of their current share price on their assets, but the armchair analysts fail to alert the market to that, preferring to just pump it up on the arbitrations.

It should never be just about the arbitrations, there is huge upside here from the share price being closer to the asset value.

The company is valued lower than the current valuation of the solar assets, for Christ's sake, before you even add in the other assets, including those that produce decent revenue and profits every day.

4p being paid.

This should creep up, it's way undervalued when you look at the Solar, Uranium and profit making Italian Gas/Electricity assets, plus over $10m from ICC-1, before you even start looking at the other arbitration claims.

Hardly what I'd call a pull back, it only went from 30.5 to 29.5, to me that's just a pause, not a pull back, just like the minuscule 0.2p change here, and I don't see a lot of profit takers either, just the standard day of shares changing hands from the impatient to the patient.

On the up again down under!

0.32

+0.015

+4.92%

Spam. This stock is a Lithium Miner, nothing to do with recruitment or the other stocks this person is ramping on here.

As I said earlier, the sells were being soaked up. Look at the trades on ADVFN at about 1:30pm, there were twice as many shares showing as sold (1,820,419) than bought (850,460), the price had risen from 13.6p to 15p at that point, only 0.2op below the high and closing price.

It could be a buyer, it could also be the MM's walking the price up to where the ASX price is, soaking up any sells as they went, which they knew they'd be able to sell later at a higher price.

Take your pick on the reason, makes no odds really, so long as we went up to roughly where ASX had reached. The UK going up to a similar level should help with sentiment for the stock down under, as it shows their price rise was backed by UK investors.

I really have to LOL 😂😂😂 at the baseless conspiracy theories. Some have spent far too much time falling for the 💩 on Truth Social 😂😂😂

If ARA wanted to buy out AEX, it would have done it ages ago at a much lower price, they didn't because they want AEX to continue as a PARTNER in Tanzania.

ARA are not thugs like Trump that want to grab everything they don't have, they are respectable businessmen that respect others ownership of assets and, partnerships to share risk, costs and knowledge.

They have shown at every step of getting Ntorya to production that they want to benefit the Tanzanian people, especially those near Ntorya that they have taken on to help with the preparations including the 3D Seismic and more will be involved as the project progresses.

Zero chance of ARA bidding for AEX. Zero chance of anyone else bidding for AEX prior to the results of CH-1 because nobody will take the risk of it turning out as a white elephant.

"Furthermore, three (3) Instruments were presented to the House during the Meeting, namely, the Environmental Protection (Mining in Forest Reserves) (Revocation) Instrument, 2025, the Public Procurement (Thresholds for Approving Authorities and Procurement Methods) Regulations, 2025, and the Minerals and Mining (Royalties) Regulations, 2025, both awaiting maturity. "

https://www.modernghana.com/news/1468714/heres-highlights-of-the-third-meeting-of-the-firs.html

🥳🥳🥳🥳

15p reached, finally. Any sells are being soaked up so maybe some delayed buys reported later.