Member Info for Dulwichman

I have seen talk that OPEC+ may be reducing production soon - could make life interesting if they do.

One day rodney. Fully support your view about any large big industry investors. However it does cross my mind that in the grand scheme of things it was SNs hope that when first launched on AIM it would naturally get PI investment to get things going with the then hope that SNs mates in big industry would hoover the lot up at some point in the future ie just before any worthwhile public announcements? A real long shot I know but stranger things have happened especially on AIM. As it is he he stuck with a load of angry PI's who perhaps he does not know what to do with? A real whakey thought but it kind of fits

In an interview last night with the defense correspondent of the standard all of a sudden Georgia came up. A simple one liner I know " Georgia is stagnant in so far as facing west or to Russia as well as the neighboring countries" I can understand where he is coming from on this but, I think more help in making there minds up would help. This has to be down to uncle sam which I am cautious about and certainly the the EU is all mouth and no trousers on this despite public statements so far. It does seem a little that the west is still too weak in actions with regards to both Russia and china's ambitions for liking and I do understand how long it takes for policy changes but tempus fugit

Hi contra off message I know but but I remember that period well it was quite a funny period as the toll gate which is the only one left in London unless you count the ULEZ., used to both charge the old bill for going through but best of all the road traffic act did not apply then., so in my youth getting through the toll gate was very important as old bill could not catch you for speeding and other crimes(?) as they had no authority! on a more serious note the money made from the toll gate helped the foundation of Alleyn's college of Gods gift - Hence Dulwich college (my old school) Alleyns JAGS and three other less well known schools have a boost of some £23 million a year. The set up has changed now but is only technical the principle purposes are still the same. Perhaps I should ask the the powers that be to invest in our little investment! Off subject i know

Really good to see you are still around Mr Mole. As ever a bolt to face reality over this share. As you quite rightly say there is a way out for the players but only if some common sense comes into play and as they say that is not so common. Even if they get all company matters resolved it will ultimate depend on the Georgian Gov and could be complete stopper. I think there in lies the rub for all concerned. Personally I cannot judge what is really going on there, Certainly there are many external political pressures on the Gov but in itself it has many waring factions on fundamentals with perhaps the income to be able to develop the country fairly low down on the list of priorities. I still think may govs still view the Ukraine crisis as a short term issue in there terms made worse by Uncle Sam being weak in its thinking and dithering in many areas ( excluding short term issues like arms etc) I for what it is worth think this is very much a long term problem but what do I know!
So there are a lot of chips to line up which is looking more and more difficult but not impossible. Like many I can only live in hope but have basically written this off.

Keep well my friend.

Hi Coggs I hope is all alive and well!!!
You should know me . it a set up question in the way you ask/ It is inviting the thought that europe is bigger than Russia> Have to get a free pint out some mugs !! I know some people who think Germany is bigger than Russia on its own! Such poor schooling these days. Mind you the good one is Siberia!

EkXoc
Whilst I fully recognise your analysis, If history is anything to go by Russia simple does not work like other economies. Firstly the Russian people will take huge amounts of pain. food, clothing heat etc It is their blood. vast numbers of the population have nothing anyway and just rely on the state. Secondly the Government have always done what is necessary at any cost for political ambition, thirdly Russia has so much that the west needs and the west cannot get else where so some types of sanctions simply will not be done by the West as the west will only take so much pain. If Russia needs Dollars ( it has been buying dollars for years and banking them) it always has the reserve of both Gold and diamonds - Nobody has a clue how much but those two will always find a way to be traded even in vast quantities. It is not quite the same as the USSR days but not far off. The shere scale of Russia is hard to understand.

When trying to explain the scale of Russia down the pub I always ask the company. " How many times will Russia fit inside Europe - It is after all only a country?" You may even be surprised by the answer yourself.

Last point most of Russia has no internet TV s are rare as no signal so they only receive Russian propaganda! Ideal circumstances for a dictatorship where " Mother Russia is in the peoples blood"

Lastly just remember that the West has its own propaganda machine, If there are demonstrations against (which I suspect is true) in Moscow a lot of the country will not even know about let alone agree with it.

There is an old Political saying " Be careful what you wish for" Given that every Prime minister I have been aware of from Wilson onward has been untruthful to Parliament and just as an example Blaire re WMD Thatcher the Zircon affair. I can not help but think that this has only come about thanks to social media creating a storm in the public arena. What I do know is that this has come at a very inconvenient time. It is easy to forget living in the UK just how important the UK is to the rest of the world and how much the ROW looks to the UK. this is all very unseemly what ever your views are of anu one individual.
As ever the are some real truths ,one of which is how superbly this Country thanks to our politicians has the ability too shoot one selves in the foot and it is all based upon the egos of Parliamentarians. It does highlight the need for calm heads. Look at the way BP dealt with deep water Horizon. It could have killed us all off. Have a think!

Chase Manhatton this week end made a forecast that oil may reach $235 a barrel by about the end of the year/spring! This is based upon the following circumstances. Nordstrem 1 is presently closed due to planned maintenance but will Russia re open it? We already have a shortage of production of refined hydrocarbons and as much of the void will increase gas demand a lot. They mention that the UK may well have to close its exports of pipeline gas in the winter to keep up with demand. which will have a knock on effect into Europe.
Well its A scenario which is anybodies guess if it will happen, but whilst it will not affect any of our court cases directly, I ask the question will it affect our court cases indirectly?especially as we are at a standstill.
It would make sense to me that putting funding in place thus leading to production is gaining more and more importance, but of coarse this will not move forward until the court cases are resolved but could it put pressure on all parties to resolve these legal matters out of court thus clearing the way quicker for a return to some sort of Business as usual? Just a muse on my behalf

Mad punter.
The experts on regime change are in fact the UK!!! you would be surprised how often we are involved. it is too dangerous for a first tier nation such as the US to get found out but the UK although being a second tier nation on paper in fact punches way above our weight! This is a real quote from an American President to his diplomats " Keep out of it - I'll have a word with the Brits who are better at at than us" Not so sure sleepy joe has that view (does he have any?) but it certainly has been the case for many a year.

lifeshard.
Totally agree with you on this . virtually all inward investment of the size required for the whole project has a huge element of geopolitics on an international scale followed by the internal politics of that particular area. It is easy to forget that there are many sources of O&G around the world much of it still in the ground so where in the world it is of importance not only to the big Companies but also to Governments as it always increases sovereign wealth. Remember it was Churchill who in effect set what we now call BP as a counter to the Rockefellers and they were both proxy elements of there respective governments in The Middle east.

I am afraid I do not take quite such a generous view of mainly Germany but the rest of the EU as well. I myself raised the EU concern about over reliance on Russian O&G some 8 years ago where I just quoted directly from both the Council of ministers and the EU Parliament with links. Other than say we must urgently get policies and follow on actions with a budget in place urgently. THEY DID NOTHING. the UK were the only ones to kick off about it as we really are the only member then who understand foreign policy. Then Trump stated the obvious both of us were ignored. If you actually believe the Germany will achieve its ambition over reliance from Russia by the end of the year it is simply impossible in practical terms I do acept that its is buying as much coal as it can for the coming winter but it does not have to capability to deal with LNG despite forward buying some a typical flying a kite just as the German supply of arms to the Uckrane simply has not begun apart from 5000 helmets so far! Politics during this high level is full of bluff and game playing but it is a big boys game and few can do it effectively ) We can can only just do it with some help from others but we do have the knowledge. From our level upwards there are many games of chess taking place much of which we do not have sight of (nor should we in some areas).
Please do not think I am being negative nor over critical but there really are some very big unknowns which one way or another will be overcome as a) Russia must loose in the short term. B) The EU has to reform say medium term. c) Georgia really does need to make its mind over a number of things. Down at our level it looks like we have the odd legal issues still to resolve either by court rulings or by agreements with parties. It all sounds a very tall order but believe me Oil but mainly the gas if all goes well is in the right place right time etc this does have a chance to come good, Not necessarily because of good action by the Company but it is of huge strategic importance on the world stage. I doubt if the real effect for us will take place until things change big time in Russia. Things may move very fast then - well lets hope so anyway. -- I shall run out of Port in two years and its getting pricey unless I buy gut rot. What a thought

But that was in days when Men were men and Women were women! and cops gave you a clip around the ear.- Ogh happy days

jonathan. Whilst I appreciate your contribution relative to the EU it simply is not really a player here. The EU really is all mouth and no trousers! . It is only really Uncle Sam who is a player here. Firstly they have hard cash on the table and is already budgeted for. The EU dose not. Uncle Sam appreciates a degree of flexibility in the demands to receive the cash. I am afraid the ECB is not exactly flush with EU cash to give as hand outs. Uncle Sam can act quickly if it wants or needs to. The EU understands slow ,dead slow and stop only. Uncle sam is able to look at the big picture and also understands geo politics. The EU is basically inward looking and and has no experience of geo poltics - what little they had went when the UK left and they took little notice of us anyway. So A good post but of little relevance in my view.

Phil
Just my take on things. At present I think we are still untouchable at least publicly until all the legal stuff is resolved either legally of by agreement. Again my own view but does have some support from looed (who understands his area better than I) the legal results recently may well have changed the playing field and attitudes may have changed and we are back at the table, either ways the mess has to all be cleared up before big O&G will publicly touch us. You then have to add in the Putin factor again Big O&G is perfectly capable of risk factoring this as they have made such decisions many times in past elsewhere. Add in the Georgians Gov factor re what is it able to achieve that will satisfy the west confidence ie in terms of corruption and democracy. The last key factor as I see it and in this area there are plenty of better people than I who can comment is the general nonsense of the Wests green issues with O&G - Remember that on paper the world is awash with O&G in the ground but it depends on where it is transportation, quality of product.
The above all sounds very negative and a mood of no hope is quite possible HOWEVER with a bit of thought you can join all the dots and in fact it is very possible to join them all up but it is complex unless you stand back a bit. I can assure you that if you look at the North sea before the so called bonanza, the hurdles were much bigger there was a general view back them that it was not even worth looking at after some very basic data because it was not technically possible. But all it took was some strong political leadership and look what happened!
So yes there are hurdles to jump but this is not a sprint race any more. Belive me if the demand for O&G is real for the future. we are on the right race course with the right horse and so far is jumping well at last after a bad start. The question is will the jockey stay on the horse till the winning post? well so far our jockey seems to have stuck on the saddle with industrial strength glue. Perhaps because of the glue as our secret the reon to stay on the saddle will not be revealed until after the wining post prizes! I tend to think our horse is working quite hard at present but seems up to the job. - So far!!

Just my view but I am a half full glass type of person -- Going to the pub to check they still have beer in stock

Earsburn. Quite agree with your concerns. Uncle Sam had money on the table long before the Ukraine issues but a lot was being held back as the Georgian gov were simply not moving forward at the agreed rate in terms of democracy and cleaning up corruption. As far as I can see the money is still on the table post Ukraine but as yet the Gov do not seemed to have moved. To be fair it may be wise for them to wait until the Ukraine matters have some clarity. It may be the case of waiting to see what and when something happens as far as Putin in power goes.
You are also correct in so far the pressure is on for Georgia to fall in line with the western powers and the people also want this but I think very few know what pressure is coming from the other way in terms of what is in the public domain.

Certainly the flow of the court cases is so far positive and the others still pending may well be advantageous in terms of timing. Looed may have a better take on my view that as we have won some court cases so far it may well be the time for some re thinking prior to any further time in court my general rule is that civil court cases are mostly a failure to negotiate and whilst each case is an individual matter to be decided on its own merit I would guess our recent wins may well cast a shadow over previous positions in future cases.

I am afraid we have to be realistic whilst any movement forward by the Georgian government is too be welcomed, I think we would be better to focus on the activities of Uncle Sam rather than any real activity by the EU. The EU is very very rule bound and Georgia has some way to go the tick box area even if there are a few grey areas which will only be in the EUs favour. Not only that the EU has no real understanding of geo politics and simply does not have the financial fire power either. Uncle Sam on the other hand already has substantial funds to allocate already budgeted for Georgia and has both the experience of geo political stuff. Add to this in diplomatic terms all rules for their geo political aims are in grey areas. I have previously posted on uncle sams commitments (prior to Ukrane matters) and I fully expect more on the way. I acept I do not like the EU much but my comment is not made on that basis, just facing up to the facts.

In Short- a number of court cases have taken place. As I am sure you know civil cases rarely have either a complete slam dunk or a complete loss and of course each individual case may affect other case. So Far legal cases have gone very much in our favour. ZaZa is no longer a director and is out of favour legally with a lot of people and they may be further action relating to him in the future. Sadly whilst the ongoing legal situation means there is an official news blackout but we do have one person (looed) who is very much in the legal loop but has decided it is wise that for the moment at least to also go onto radio silence as it clear a lot is still going on in the background whilst both legal cases and perhaps other demands are under discussion. To add to this there is a lot of unwinding to do thanks to some unfortunate actions of one very well known and at the time believed Director. Others will use the language I would prefer to use.
The Ukraine situation and the wests needs for oil and more importantly gas I suspect is focusing some important minds which may well be helpful but that is again I am afraid a waiting game.
In general I would say. 1) we are not dead yet and from a period of in activity there is some activity but mainly on the legal front. we know nothing about what is taking place on the ground.
2) Geo politics one way or another will affect us.

So all is not lost yet but it will take time to get to an active company on the ground again and there are still hurdles to jump. I am mildly positive compared to where we were.

Liz Truss specifically mentioned that the west should increase arms support for Georgia (and others). To add to this the strength of her overall view ( and I hope actions) is that Russia must be expelled from from ALL of the Ukraine including Crimea. Given both the strength of the overall speech and a clear ambition at least at the mansion house, it appears to me that firstly other major western nations will have had more than an inkling of the content but also a good degree of support. Of course part of the content was meant for Putins ears specifically. but it seems to me that somehow or another the West intends to wrap it arms around the whole region. So far so good as far as the position of Georgia and potentially us (IF we can solve all the other Company problems)
I also take from the speech that implied but not spoken is that sanctions may be coming to some sort of limit as whilst it may hurt Russia but is also hurting the West. We have already seen some of this so I suspect there is a limit as to how far further sanctions can be applied which only really leaves the military options.
Back to our own particular interest. I can only take the view that for what ever reasons be it principle ( ie recognition of sovereign states) or economic ( ie reducing reliance of Russian gas and oil) that we are in a slightly better position as far a big picture stuff goes than we were say 6 months ago, indeed quite a lot has happened during that 6 months mainly on the legal front and so far in our favour. Given the above it also seems clear to me that the west in ready fro the long haul which again I see as advantageous ( as long as we all live that long!) as this allows the legal cases to continue which as we all know takes too much time.
There is a final point ,that being when the military stuff is over ALL western contributing governments economies will be in a mess. Part of the road of recovery will be supply of cheap energy quickly ( in relative terms) especially for Europe. This really could be a case of the stars aligning for us if all other things fall in place!!
With all my caveats stated I honestly believe there is some hope still left for us all

Re Germany. If Putin acts there will be a real problem not only for Germany but Italy and others. Germany takes about 45% of its gas from Russia via pipe lines and then distributes some of that to Italy and others. The real issues are that Germany does not have an LNG terminal at a port and can not build one before the winter. Those countries in the northan hemisphere have already booked tankers for the annual fill up during the summer. I doubt if there are even enough tankers to supply Germany even if supplies are available. this is a potential real problem.