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Mad punter.
The experts on regime change are in fact the UK!!! you would be surprised how often we are involved. it is too dangerous for a first tier nation such as the US to get found out but the UK although being a second tier nation on paper in fact punches way above our weight! This is a real quote from an American President to his diplomats " Keep out of it - I'll have a word with the Brits who are better at at than us" Not so sure sleepy joe has that view (does he have any?) but it certainly has been the case for many a year.
lifeshard.
Totally agree with you on this . virtually all inward investment of the size required for the whole project has a huge element of geopolitics on an international scale followed by the internal politics of that particular area. It is easy to forget that there are many sources of O&G around the world much of it still in the ground so where in the world it is of importance not only to the big Companies but also to Governments as it always increases sovereign wealth. Remember it was Churchill who in effect set what we now call BP as a counter to the Rockefellers and they were both proxy elements of there respective governments in The Middle east.
I am afraid I do not take quite such a generous view of mainly Germany but the rest of the EU as well. I myself raised the EU concern about over reliance on Russian O&G some 8 years ago where I just quoted directly from both the Council of ministers and the EU Parliament with links. Other than say we must urgently get policies and follow on actions with a budget in place urgently. THEY DID NOTHING. the UK were the only ones to kick off about it as we really are the only member then who understand foreign policy. Then Trump stated the obvious both of us were ignored. If you actually believe the Germany will achieve its ambition over reliance from Russia by the end of the year it is simply impossible in practical terms I do acept that its is buying as much coal as it can for the coming winter but it does not have to capability to deal with LNG despite forward buying some a typical flying a kite just as the German supply of arms to the Uckrane simply has not begun apart from 5000 helmets so far! Politics during this high level is full of bluff and game playing but it is a big boys game and few can do it effectively ) We can can only just do it with some help from others but we do have the knowledge. From our level upwards there are many games of chess taking place much of which we do not have sight of (nor should we in some areas).
Please do not think I am being negative nor over critical but there really are some very big unknowns which one way or another will be overcome as a) Russia must loose in the short term. B) The EU has to reform say medium term. c) Georgia really does need to make its mind over a number of things. Down at our level it looks like we have the odd legal issues still to resolve either by court rulings or by agreements with parties. It all sounds a very tall order but believe me Oil but mainly the gas if all goes well is in the right place right time etc this does have a chance to come good, Not necessarily because of good action by the Company but it is of huge strategic importance on the world stage. I doubt if the real effect for us will take place until things change big time in Russia. Things may move very fast then - well lets hope so anyway. -- I shall run out of Port in two years and its getting pricey unless I buy gut rot. What a thought
But that was in days when Men were men and Women were women! and cops gave you a clip around the ear.- Ogh happy days
jonathan. Whilst I appreciate your contribution relative to the EU it simply is not really a player here. The EU really is all mouth and no trousers! . It is only really Uncle Sam who is a player here. Firstly they have hard cash on the table and is already budgeted for. The EU dose not. Uncle Sam appreciates a degree of flexibility in the demands to receive the cash. I am afraid the ECB is not exactly flush with EU cash to give as hand outs. Uncle Sam can act quickly if it wants or needs to. The EU understands slow ,dead slow and stop only. Uncle sam is able to look at the big picture and also understands geo politics. The EU is basically inward looking and and has no experience of geo poltics - what little they had went when the UK left and they took little notice of us anyway. So A good post but of little relevance in my view.
Phil
Just my take on things. At present I think we are still untouchable at least publicly until all the legal stuff is resolved either legally of by agreement. Again my own view but does have some support from looed (who understands his area better than I) the legal results recently may well have changed the playing field and attitudes may have changed and we are back at the table, either ways the mess has to all be cleared up before big O&G will publicly touch us. You then have to add in the Putin factor again Big O&G is perfectly capable of risk factoring this as they have made such decisions many times in past elsewhere. Add in the Georgians Gov factor re what is it able to achieve that will satisfy the west confidence ie in terms of corruption and democracy. The last key factor as I see it and in this area there are plenty of better people than I who can comment is the general nonsense of the Wests green issues with O&G - Remember that on paper the world is awash with O&G in the ground but it depends on where it is transportation, quality of product.
The above all sounds very negative and a mood of no hope is quite possible HOWEVER with a bit of thought you can join all the dots and in fact it is very possible to join them all up but it is complex unless you stand back a bit. I can assure you that if you look at the North sea before the so called bonanza, the hurdles were much bigger there was a general view back them that it was not even worth looking at after some very basic data because it was not technically possible. But all it took was some strong political leadership and look what happened!
So yes there are hurdles to jump but this is not a sprint race any more. Belive me if the demand for O&G is real for the future. we are on the right race course with the right horse and so far is jumping well at last after a bad start. The question is will the jockey stay on the horse till the winning post? well so far our jockey seems to have stuck on the saddle with industrial strength glue. Perhaps because of the glue as our secret the reon to stay on the saddle will not be revealed until after the wining post prizes! I tend to think our horse is working quite hard at present but seems up to the job. - So far!!
Just my view but I am a half full glass type of person -- Going to the pub to check they still have beer in stock
Earsburn. Quite agree with your concerns. Uncle Sam had money on the table long before the Ukraine issues but a lot was being held back as the Georgian gov were simply not moving forward at the agreed rate in terms of democracy and cleaning up corruption. As far as I can see the money is still on the table post Ukraine but as yet the Gov do not seemed to have moved. To be fair it may be wise for them to wait until the Ukraine matters have some clarity. It may be the case of waiting to see what and when something happens as far as Putin in power goes.
You are also correct in so far the pressure is on for Georgia to fall in line with the western powers and the people also want this but I think very few know what pressure is coming from the other way in terms of what is in the public domain.
Certainly the flow of the court cases is so far positive and the others still pending may well be advantageous in terms of timing. Looed may have a better take on my view that as we have won some court cases so far it may well be the time for some re thinking prior to any further time in court my general rule is that civil court cases are mostly a failure to negotiate and whilst each case is an individual matter to be decided on its own merit I would guess our recent wins may well cast a shadow over previous positions in future cases.
I am afraid we have to be realistic whilst any movement forward by the Georgian government is too be welcomed, I think we would be better to focus on the activities of Uncle Sam rather than any real activity by the EU. The EU is very very rule bound and Georgia has some way to go the tick box area even if there are a few grey areas which will only be in the EUs favour. Not only that the EU has no real understanding of geo politics and simply does not have the financial fire power either. Uncle Sam on the other hand already has substantial funds to allocate already budgeted for Georgia and has both the experience of geo political stuff. Add to this in diplomatic terms all rules for their geo political aims are in grey areas. I have previously posted on uncle sams commitments (prior to Ukrane matters) and I fully expect more on the way. I acept I do not like the EU much but my comment is not made on that basis, just facing up to the facts.
In Short- a number of court cases have taken place. As I am sure you know civil cases rarely have either a complete slam dunk or a complete loss and of course each individual case may affect other case. So Far legal cases have gone very much in our favour. ZaZa is no longer a director and is out of favour legally with a lot of people and they may be further action relating to him in the future. Sadly whilst the ongoing legal situation means there is an official news blackout but we do have one person (looed) who is very much in the legal loop but has decided it is wise that for the moment at least to also go onto radio silence as it clear a lot is still going on in the background whilst both legal cases and perhaps other demands are under discussion. To add to this there is a lot of unwinding to do thanks to some unfortunate actions of one very well known and at the time believed Director. Others will use the language I would prefer to use.
The Ukraine situation and the wests needs for oil and more importantly gas I suspect is focusing some important minds which may well be helpful but that is again I am afraid a waiting game.
In general I would say. 1) we are not dead yet and from a period of in activity there is some activity but mainly on the legal front. we know nothing about what is taking place on the ground.
2) Geo politics one way or another will affect us.
So all is not lost yet but it will take time to get to an active company on the ground again and there are still hurdles to jump. I am mildly positive compared to where we were.
Liz Truss specifically mentioned that the west should increase arms support for Georgia (and others). To add to this the strength of her overall view ( and I hope actions) is that Russia must be expelled from from ALL of the Ukraine including Crimea. Given both the strength of the overall speech and a clear ambition at least at the mansion house, it appears to me that firstly other major western nations will have had more than an inkling of the content but also a good degree of support. Of course part of the content was meant for Putins ears specifically. but it seems to me that somehow or another the West intends to wrap it arms around the whole region. So far so good as far as the position of Georgia and potentially us (IF we can solve all the other Company problems)
I also take from the speech that implied but not spoken is that sanctions may be coming to some sort of limit as whilst it may hurt Russia but is also hurting the West. We have already seen some of this so I suspect there is a limit as to how far further sanctions can be applied which only really leaves the military options.
Back to our own particular interest. I can only take the view that for what ever reasons be it principle ( ie recognition of sovereign states) or economic ( ie reducing reliance of Russian gas and oil) that we are in a slightly better position as far a big picture stuff goes than we were say 6 months ago, indeed quite a lot has happened during that 6 months mainly on the legal front and so far in our favour. Given the above it also seems clear to me that the west in ready fro the long haul which again I see as advantageous ( as long as we all live that long!) as this allows the legal cases to continue which as we all know takes too much time.
There is a final point ,that being when the military stuff is over ALL western contributing governments economies will be in a mess. Part of the road of recovery will be supply of cheap energy quickly ( in relative terms) especially for Europe. This really could be a case of the stars aligning for us if all other things fall in place!!
With all my caveats stated I honestly believe there is some hope still left for us all
Re Germany. If Putin acts there will be a real problem not only for Germany but Italy and others. Germany takes about 45% of its gas from Russia via pipe lines and then distributes some of that to Italy and others. The real issues are that Germany does not have an LNG terminal at a port and can not build one before the winter. Those countries in the northan hemisphere have already booked tankers for the annual fill up during the summer. I doubt if there are even enough tankers to supply Germany even if supplies are available. this is a potential real problem.
In my judgement it looks like Oil has settled down to around $100 a barrel but how long will this last? As for gas. My own view is this this is still bouncing around a bit but may just be getting close to some sort of mean average. If I leave aside all the Geo political stuff ( which I class as being unknown as far as geogia goes as this is still very early days) If all the legal stuff can be worked through just what are the economics looking like for the O& G we have supposedly secured?
It is after all why we are all here and I am certainly no expert here. Bugsy?, Mole? etc certainly more in your field. after all it is why we are all still hear or is it a total wast of time as the dollars do not not add up?
Views please
Phil In principle you are fairly on the button however there has been a bit of a hiatus in what our super sleuths have been posting but for good reason we are lead to believe. Looed who has been remarkable lately has posted that he will not be adding much as to what is going on as in his or the Companies wisdom(?) matters are entering delicate stage and radio silence is required. My own view and this is guesswork is that is probably a wise move. His view was entirely from a company /share holder perspective and this was also just before the Ukraine match started (well at least publicly)
From a bigger and perhaps more recent perspective and my own view is the Ukraine match is time for a reset both in terms of actions by Governments and big big oil and gas. This will take time and ultimately alter any views /outcomes that will affect us one way or another. What is certainly clear to me is that this will put us in a different position and more likely positive from the position we are in at present but much has to take place before it will directly affect us. Be assured I am personally of the view the importance is Georgian O&G both of uncle Sam and Europe will be higher up the agenda in geo political terms but quite where I have no idea at present.
We have the huge fog of war with many outcomes being in the unknown file and as a Company despite its lobbying of Uncle Sam (and at least we can see why it took place now) and the money which goes with it, is perhaps in a state of flux for obvious reasons but I have no doubt giving the experience of SN that or name at least is being shouted loudly behind the scenes. Many strange things happen as a result of important conflicts.
There is just a remote chance that we may have been a victim of uncle sams support policy. On one hand the Georgian Gov are financially encouraged to clean them selves and others up. On the other hand there is also the policy and finance to develop the O%G industry. From memory and I am willing to be corrected the arbitration whilst completed has not been full enacted.
In my experience it is not beyond the realms of my experience that Government departments and or agencies work (And big companies!)in silos. Could it be that the Georgians were well aware of the games ( my words) that a certain former director was up to and therefore as part of the required clean up took action. At the Sam time uncle sam was pushing o&G? It may just explain part of our own lobbying in the US and a failure for the Georgians to push the final button to close down. Probably I am wrong but it does join some dots. if so there is still some hope left as all the rest will fall into place somehow. It may, given where not only where we are know but the changes in the O&G demand that we have been informed by looed about radio silence as some some quite difficult negotiations are taking place behind the scenes. Just a wild thought.
Hi Cymro.
Many thanks for your post. Do you ( or anybody else)know by chance what the reason for the need of what appears to be mainly arbitration?. My reason for asking are twofold. 1) could these spends be to try to resolve problems related to corruption or related issue? if so this could be helpful. 2) You mention one spend as specifically related to us. From previous posts ages ago by our intrepid explorers who have actually been there one of the problems was the state of the road network and form a vague memory ( maybe bugsy and co can be more specific) what roads existed were of such poor quality that transportation of any exploration oil was a nightmare to get to the rail head.
Agin in previous but recent post by me I mention of the huge amount of money that had been allocated by Uncle Sam for both anti corruption and also the oil and gas development. only some 25% had been spent and from what I can work out the rest was being held up/allocated was dependent on a clean up of both the Georgian government and its associates.
I just wonder if this could all be related or if there is a real move to clean up corruption? If so it just may be a very small but important ray of sunshine for us. A long shot I know.
Keyseroze BP will have been looking at this for a while but as a back burner. What this does do is a call to get the file out from the filing cabinet. BP it self will have a lot to think about over this. But I have no doubt they will be getting advice/pressure from the UK as this is all part of geopolitical movements. I would not be at all surprised if this is more of a keep china out situation as well as a plea from the Georgian Gov. It is now more than ever for our little investment which is still alive somehow to keep quiet as looed has suggested this really is a big boys game now. We are however well placed in the pecking order of the big boys games as long as the legal stuff comes good - I shall leave the legal stuff to others who are better placed to make comment. What is clear at least to me is that Uncle Sam's announced money into Georgia places a really strong pressure on the Georgian Gov to clean its act up. This may well be hard for them but they will be very much aware of this need given this announcement. This is a strong move in our favour but many things can still upset the apple cart which are out of our control.
Related is one one thing - and I do normally keep out f the techie stuff many more experts on this forum than me , but I seem to remember that the quality of the gas was so good that putting our gas into the main gas (BP owned?) was not a big issue. Well that may or may not become possible but what seems clear to me is speed. The western economies want cheap gas in quantity NOW and for the foreseeable future. It will of course take time be it us or somebody else but I guess in the oil and gas industry a year or so is in fact quite fast Techie people please correct if I am wrong but clean gas has to be better than dirty gas as I presume it adds to the time span (I think cost is irrelevant in Political terms it is getting off Russian gas is the driver).
Those who like to bash please don't I am only talking in terms of IF it all goes well for Georgian as a country and then us IF we can get all the necessary sorted out so YES I see this as positive but there are a lot of ifs and buts.
Time for a bottle of claret before the pub and a nightcap
erazzel
Totally take your point and agree but one thing for sure is that when doing the washing up Russia is going to have to do a real think about its military. It still has both the northan and central armies etc (which are much better trained and equipped) but as things stand they are needed to protect its legitimate borders. If history is anything to go by the military leaders in post some will go/ it will also need to re equip. and also have a stratgic rethink all of which will take time and money. There may also be more political movements internally. Clearly the pressures on Russia look like they will be place for quite some time along the lines of a cold war. A close look at the cold war may be of use for whilst it was in place with many ups and downs it was in effect a period of peace or more importantly a period of settled borders. A lot will depend on the final view coming from the west. In a purely best of all outcomes from our perspective is that Georgia will in effect be stable, if this comes about there positive signs as this will induce confidence both internally and externally. Remember when wars take place there are at least many positive opportunities and out comes as well as the negatives but it always involves changes which are too early to predict at this time.
Fibber. totally agree with you over where does Georgia face. Pro Russia /pro west or china? My own view is that it will wait until things settle down. My previous posts highlight just how much Georgia is on uncle Sams agenda both from geo political importance and from an inward investment point of view with a vast sum of allocated money unspent (mainly as it is staged investment subject to The Georgian Government sorting it self out re democracy and corruption). In my view the Urkrane situation is not only putting a lot on hold as political minds are focused elsewhere but my guess is what position Putin is left in when the main fighting is over. Certainly Russia will be financially weaker so I would think less of a player. China is not having to spend and Uncle sam won't care. What is clear is that Georgia if and when things settle down is still ripe for inward investment- indeed it is even on the UK list. So the question will remain for the Big O&G is it worth the risk. my guess is that it is but not yet. Today's announcement that Uncle Sam is relaxing its own O&G reserves to help increase the supply side is key these reserves will eventually need to be replaced whilst demand is still on the up.
So it is a bit of wait and see.
So far there has been no announcement to base Nato troops such as a battle group in Georgia
My original post was written prior to the NATO posts below by others.
This is a cut and paste re georgia with Uncle Sams point of view. Do not worry that it comes from 2010 as these are both strategic in nature thus over a long period of time but it just may explain something.Certainly it has come to the fore over the last couple of weeks.
With regard to the Nato announcement The UK has been working with Georgia re the military for some years now similar to the Ukrane. Officers are trained at sandhurst etc all done without any public a plomb ie soft power.
"Energy cooperation is one of the main pillars of Georgia-US bilateral relations. The US is deeply interested in diversification of the world energy markets and continuously supports projects in this regard. Georgia is viewed as a favorable transit country for the Caspian oil and gas resources.
On February 25, 2010 the Assistance Agreement was signed between Georgia and the USA. According to agreement, 122,500,000 USD as part of the 1 billion USD pledge, will be invested in the development of the Georgian energy sector and infrastructure."!