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A number of factors put together just may add a little more hope. it could be I am making 1=1 +7!!! It was slipped out yesterday by a junior UK minster ie small print stuff which always happens that HMG is now encouraging North sea new production for O&G (net zero dead?) add it that shelll has already announced it is reconsidering its view on a shetalnd field then add in the HMG has already approved 6 new licenses. now add add in that O is predicted could go as high as $200 a barrel ( bit high in my view but still) lastly at least one big oil major as quietly not be buy back shares for a few days To me this sounds as if Big O&G is on the march again as this will involve some quite large capitol expenditure with a long term payback period.
Separately but possibly related HMG has just announced an announced a further 6000 anti tank munitions adding to the 4000 already donated to Ukrane just to add into the huge USA donation of equipment. I think at least on a Governmental level they are perhaps thinking the fighting is not a skirmish and will be longer term?.
Add the two together and at a minimum the worlds energy policies are in turmoil and for quite some time.
IF by chance we can get all of the legal stuff out of the way and all we have been told has a reasonable % chance of being true and it is at a low price out of the ground we perhaps have some form of a fighting chance at least in principle if not fact.
The key as always money. We may also have a glimmer of hope here as well. I have recently been looking at the relationships of The Georgian Government with Major western Govs. They are in fact quite good but especially with the UK and Uncle Sam. In short subject to improvements in both democracy and corruption AID money is released to support both Georgia to become self reliant in energy terms and also a safe transportation country ( presumably this is relating to the southern corridor interconector) Uncle sam so far has used about 20% of the allocated funds and it is an overall big number. To me this explains a number of things ie our ongoing lobbying perhaps some of the support we have had from Baker huges and others - from memory there we questions over how this was paid for.
The above para over money is from official sources but were pre Ukraine. These policies will be tinkered with somehow given the new situation.
From my own area of an interest in the Geo political stuff as opposed to the techie stuff where we have some real experts. I recon that if we can get our own stuff together then in this new era of uncertainty with the BEAR we could be game on with an O&G major in some form or another. This will all take guess what TIME.
Just my little muse.
All we want now is for Mr Mole to appear from underground! I gather even he has gone back to the Malt.
Prods do not worry Cats have nine lives, mind you I think Frr has used up 8
Coggs. Wasn't the same during covid. I really missed my 1/2 bottle of Claret for breakfast. Rather spoilt my pallet for electric soup at elevenses. before a quick visit to the battle cruiser at lunchtime. As for afternoon tea that went out of the window so I was gasping for the 1537 at London bridge and nobody else around for company to replenish supplies with. I ended eat food which I can assure you is most distasteful. All a bit like good ole FRR. I shall return to normal fully when the gas is flowing.
Hope all is good with you.
Prod and coggs. I'm gong back to drinking, in case I get called an old codger. Prevention is better than the cure
I am not convinced that Nato will be end up being involved. The real question is what are puntins eventual aims? it seems to me there are options. one is certainly to re create the empire of Peter the Great and Catherine or is it the USSR or something else? The next question is just how long is he looking into the future to achieve his aims. The west and specifically us in the UK were very good Kremlin watchers but as part of the peace dividend we literally stopped watching and closed down the then FCO department so between us and the USA we "flying partially blind" If history is anything to go by the Russian people will accept far more pain than any western country. Mother Russia is very powerful. Underestimate it at your peril and the few dissidents are nothing more than an annoyance to the Kremlin. This could all last in some form for a very long time
It seems clear to me that Nato is not going to act unless puntin is daft. so what will he do? it could be an option to continue along the coast, take Odessa and then what. Possibly go for Moldovia as well? it is certainly a possibility as he will not be up against an army or air power. so what about Georgia? just a prediction I really do not think that china is going to be too upset about Moldova (sadly) but Given that China has already male noise about the principle of Sovereign state recognition (quite strongly by their standards) Georgia has just what china needs which is O&G, and given that Putins style is a scorched earth policy in terms of buildings and infra structure this just might make China really put there foot down. In real terms China is in a difficult position despite being an economic power house as it is so reliant on imports especially O&G It is easy to say that Russia will provide but it is not as simple as that. China is not stupid and it will not want to be reliant on single sources when this settles down and if the court cases go completely in the right direction. Georgia could have to really make its mind up. Yes OK they are pushing the button on EU membership ( with a fairly positive response and may be even join Nato or could it change and face china? China will not invade and does not interfere directly at least with Governments in independent nations it just uses money which is just what we need. Interesting I think but a long way down the road with many twits and turns. I do have to say I am disgusted with the EU. It was posted on this site that the EU was fully aware about the risks of energy reliance indeed they had a policy on it and did nothing. The first rule of Empire building is to get your own house in order before going on the march. It despised Nato and just starved it its finances are basically corrupt. what a mess some EU leaders are almost as bad as Putin but that democracy for you.
Hi Prod. Thanks for the comment. As you know this is only an opinion and not to be taken as gospel. There is one nagging thought from the past. Putin has always been after a warm water port for his navy. There is one of a suitable size and depth of water some 30 miles from where most of his troops are. It is in my view just possible that this is foremast in his mind and he might just want a corridor with just a very small part of the Ukraine hived off. That would suit him and possibly given the long term goals a possible port for China?. 30 odd miles would not be to difficult to both defend and hold. To save an all out war and given the weakness in Europe and the USA in foreign policy it really could be Munich moment ( Peace in our time!) just my guess.
I should really post something on the difficulties of being a buffer state - its not easy! As I think even bigger countries than Georgia ARE finding out as of now which again the weakness of the west is finding out. Many have warned about this but it has all fallen on deaf ears. I would like to point a finger at few but wisdom tells me to keep my mouth shut for the present as what ever happens many minds are being focused on past mistakes. so a case of watch somebody else space - someone will speak out probably a retired western general( UK?) to begin with and many will follow!
Your comment re development of the North sea I completely agree with. It is simply not worth the aggro when there are so many other opportunities ( even though it seems that the banks in the UK are still lending to big O& G they can not afford not to) Boris at present has made a rod for his own back on this one especially as it would need the use of Scottish yards to build platforms and widow t****ey has also nailed her colours to the mast re green issues (the whole COP thing is a complete mess which many democratic governments will regret - what ever voters support they always change there minds when it comes to the £ in their pocket)
I suspect very strongly that due to issues relating to Russian gas supply issues etc coupled with Boris announcing that 6 new fields in the north sea can go ahead. quite a lot of dosh will be spent by BP/Shell etc and it will have public support.
Some will be aware that an vaguely useful contributions I have been able to make in past have been relating to at least a part of the geo political issues. Due to the present situation I feel it is worth adding a bit to the pot. In the past it really has only been the good ole USA who have taken an interest in Georgia regarding its political importance in the Balance of power and even that has has been focused on Russia. The EU have recognised that the reliance on Russian gas is a danger but the EU are an impotent organisation for many reasons in geo politcle actions as simply put they can never agree a common course of action within the nation states Things have actually moved quite fast. The weaknesses are now showing mainly around nordstreamII ( Germany mainly but France to) China has joined the bun fight and showed its hand. This is actually a huge opportunity for both the West in general and NATO in particular to sort its self out. One way or another a number of Buffers will be re inforced or have to be created both as a land buffer ( georgia is ideally placed for this) and reliance on Russian gas reduced ( Note the UK has already reacted with 6 new sources to be developed in the North sea back on the cards) Georgian gas is further up the importance levels especially as Russia and china have agreed a deal. Whats good for Georgia is good for us but is also good for east, west/ china relations.
Nobody wants the present actions of Russia to cause trouble in a military sense and a huge game of chess is taking place. As long as this does not go upside down this is helpful.
You then have to add in another factor. Big oil and gas for the foreseeable future say two years are basically money making machines. However they are under attack ( except in the USA) politically - I doubt if windfall taxes will come into play, they have too much of a good defense, However they must be seen to do something. Options share buy backs (they are already doing this) Reduce debt - not always a good businesses move or go on a spend up. Georgian O&G development could be back on the list. Could this be good for us? Don't count our chickens yet but it does make sense.
pot
Many thanks looed. If all pans out well the importance of the Housekeeping perhaps comes into play. Nothing in terms of any hope of a recovery (I wish) can not even start realistically until all the housekeeping is in order. Entrances from stage left as a surprise could really put a bigger spanner in the works
This is very much a lay question so forgive me if it sounds daft. the two extra motions placed before the court by us. Fee claim and permanent injunction. Is this just a tactic by our Lawerys to place even more pressure on the defense with the hope they will hold there hands up, or would this be they have have heard things the during the hearing which gives them extra confidence ? Anybody
Just a guess that it taking place behind closed doors. screen is blank so no news
Just my lay view. Wouldn't zeeM team need to ask for a closed hearing in open court? Just a thought
Not totally convinced that Putin wants to invade in a physical sense, more like he wants as an end game to have a huge increase in political influence close to puppet governments of the former USSR. What is taking place is classic game playing. The west is in dissaray over this and he has spotted all the weakness here. Most of the west has cut military spending or if modernising is doing at too slow a pace. What he presenting at the moment is the potential of Russian might with boots on or near the ground and leaving the options open. the west reaction at present is limited top economic sanctions which in truth I doubt he will take much notice off as he has a strangle hold on most of Europe but constraing energy supplies which he can divert to china. This is however still a dangerous situation as it is easy to make wrong moves on both sides whilst sabre rattling is taking place. Sadly much of the Wests "Kremiln watchers" - (there's a name from the past) have been tasked else where from the berlin wall coming down era. Many of us warned this was a mistake at the time but to no avail.
MY fundamental problem at this moment in time is about the legal teams. I am not too worried about the fact that that change quite a lot. In my experience the legal bods only have two things they are concerned about 1) getting paid, and 2) reputational damage.
1) I find it hard to believe that any legal bods would do this level of work pro bonno so there must be some arrangements for payment at some point in time. I find it hard to believe they would "on a promise" without a very real belief and after extensive research backed up full access to all the information and by a really good fit of case law. This in itself is no mean feat with all the complexities and would be expensive in it self even before taking on such a case. Even if up front fees were available the profile of this whole mess is in my view would be something which would either be a real feather in the cap for any legal team and would bounce them in the "go to" mob leading to work coming out there ears. On the other hand if I am correct a loss would not be a "wipe your mouth situation ie SZZT happens and just move on" They would be called fools for taking it on and perhaps worse the advice they give is no good - they may as a well all pack up and go home.
I believe that from the Lawyers point of view i really do think they access the situation as a 50% chance of achieving.
The next question is what are they trying to achieve? It may well be not as straight forward as some people think! on outright win in all of the cases may well be a bit of an ask! but possible. however what if it is only yet more delaying tactics? could SN be up to something we can only guess at.
Questions , questions questions and we have no answers let alone a pathway. I am left with one thing = Why are so many lawyers still willing to be involved they will not be doing it for free.
Hi coggs. Hope all is well. I have not lost faith, it is simply that I do not trust ZM in all of this. one way or another he has skin in this game either in shares still(?) or the possibility of much firmer legal actions ( mild comment as I am not sure what we are allowed to post theses day) perhaps with an unplanned holiday? there fore I can only presume he will use any tactic known .
I totally accept that the withdrawal of his lawyers for the reasons they state can only be viewed in a positive light but between now and the date of the next planned hearings could he still find new lawyers? Even so I presume the legal process would require the cases to be formally withdrawn? or is he mad enough to act as a litigant in person?
I just do not to raise hopes up too high just yet.
There is one thing we could all do. The game playing by putin over gas is of some geopolitical importance especially to the EU ( not so much us in terms of gas) but the continent of Europe must not be held to randsom over gas and of course China needs gas (or lpg at least) certainly for the foreseeable future as green energy to replace it will be a while coming. So just what is the UK Gov doing to both protect the UK ( and indeed the rest of the western world) especially as Boris wants us to take a world view now. The last thing the west in general wants is for things to get out of hand in that region and in my view whilst not yet being a tinderbox it could become one ( I also believe the Russia and china could to some degree be working hand in hand for control of the areas assets) Why not ask our MP's questions over what is the Uk.s view on the area and its assets? ( do not mention the Company) it may be quite revealing .
Lastly thanks to those who have mentioned my health. All is OK thankfully just a bit of old age creeping in. just very depressed over the Government at present. so a bit of humour. What is won of the most renewable energies around? OIL!!! its made from wood! if we plant all these new trees and do not keep CO2 levels up the new trees will die.
Convinced this will come back good at some time and hope the "Band of Brothers" all keep well and live long enough to reep the benefits! Back to sitting by the coal fire in my slippers and a a nice large glass of some liquid in comfy arm chair.
Anybody had any contact with MR Mole recently?
On the surface things are looking better than they were. With all the twists and turns I certainly have no clear site of how we are moving forward yet. These legal cases are not over for sure yet all that has happened really is that ZMs lawyers have got the hump as payment agreements have not taken place. No offense to any legal people here but we all know what they can be like when it comes to their own money. Could it be that he could hire some new lawyers? for as yet the cases have not been stuck out by the court, or am I mistaken? I also still have one other *****ling thing. We did find out that SN took his eye off the ball due to illness. Somehow that does not quit ring fully true. with so much at stake and his experience of the oil game which is shark eat shark would you just hand over things even to your best friend? Just does not ring with me.
Perhaps I am looking too deep having been used to being kicked in the nuts on this one
According to the data of the State Oil and Gas Agency for eight months of 2021, Georgia has extracted 26,000 tons of crude oil and 14 million cubic meters of gas. In 2020, the total annual production was 30,000 tons of crude oil and 10 million cubic meters of gas.
The Eu has been aware of the problem for a long time. Energy security as been a policy item for years. Quite simply what ever anybody thinks of the EU politically as an ambition it is almost impossible to get decision making done in a reasonable time for any silo type organization ( a UK local council can make decisions quicker! and that is saying something) trying to even get to the policy of energy security took years to get the wording agreed. They were also warned by trump of the dangers of over reliance on Russian supplies at the early stages of his Presidency and also the separate issues around Nordstream II. The Eu really does not have a lot of international clout otherwise it would have put its weight behind the O&G in Georgia etc. We really have had to rely on the good old USA. and also in Very real terms the UK has not utilised leaving the EU in this area. UK soft power COULD have been very useful in the past by giving easier access to the city for finance ( but that would have been under the influence of the EU still) but now we are out it should be a whole new ball game in terms of dosh but will it? The whole region could benefit from a bit of UK Gov support ( the UK Gov can not directly support a Company) but it can give support to UK business in general in the area which would also help in keeping them looking west. It is quite pitiful how we are NOT acting in a way that we are good at. now the restraints are off. As a general rule developing Counties look to a UK type modul to advise etc ect and from what we can tell is a Government that wants to clean up its act in many areas. Every body wins but I suppose the patterson issues don't help!! I am almost thinking of writing to my MP about UK involvement in the whole area. A though - is there an MP's interest group for Georgia? may be we should write to them !
Bigun I totally agree with your comment over our politicians. However the big o/g Companies will wait (for PR reasons. eventually the green issues will just fade in the news' Thank god I am fed up with it being rammed down my throat all the time) But the politicians do know that change cannot happen over night and in real terms demand for gas especially will grow for some time to come. Any way the Politicians need the tax money. If I am right a further delay as you susguest is certainly not what we want after all this time but it may be for the best in the medium term. The real issues for us is survive ability and to clear up the mess in legal terms. If that takes us back to where we were before the mess we are at the point when we all think this is still a good investment (with all the normal ups and downs which many of us know and understand) The need for gas is still there , access to a gas interconnector is still there. The gas quality is good enough to just pipe it in. Any oil is a bonus ( but may not be that important) The Geo politics is very much working in our favor. The EU mainly has caught a cold over Russian supplies guarantees ( just a Trump said it would) The Chinese demand for gas and related products is on the the up medium term. The USA is in a real mess. reserves of oil especially are low in the tanks ( why not turn on the fracking? Politically unacceptable for the moment hence trying to get Saudi to turn on the taps). So the pressures are in our favour . We have to believe in something and that is that there is commercial O/G there that can be got out of the ground. The real issue is money and when. As I firmly believe that the various important Court cases will manly be won. At the end of the day all parties want to make money out of this. It is there only belief. Lets hope common sense prevails by what ever tortuous route. As a side issue anybody got any idea how we are funding these legal cases? - Somebody is.