Member Info for Dulwichman

In my judgement it looks like Oil has settled down to around $100 a barrel but how long will this last? As for gas. My own view is this this is still bouncing around a bit but may just be getting close to some sort of mean average. If I leave aside all the Geo political stuff ( which I class as being unknown as far as geogia goes as this is still very early days) If all the legal stuff can be worked through just what are the economics looking like for the O& G we have supposedly secured?

It is after all why we are all here and I am certainly no expert here. Bugsy?, Mole? etc certainly more in your field. after all it is why we are all still hear or is it a total wast of time as the dollars do not not add up?

Views please

Phil In principle you are fairly on the button however there has been a bit of a hiatus in what our super sleuths have been posting but for good reason we are lead to believe. Looed who has been remarkable lately has posted that he will not be adding much as to what is going on as in his or the Companies wisdom(?) matters are entering delicate stage and radio silence is required. My own view and this is guesswork is that is probably a wise move. His view was entirely from a company /share holder perspective and this was also just before the Ukraine match started (well at least publicly)

From a bigger and perhaps more recent perspective and my own view is the Ukraine match is time for a reset both in terms of actions by Governments and big big oil and gas. This will take time and ultimately alter any views /outcomes that will affect us one way or another. What is certainly clear to me is that this will put us in a different position and more likely positive from the position we are in at present but much has to take place before it will directly affect us. Be assured I am personally of the view the importance is Georgian O&G both of uncle Sam and Europe will be higher up the agenda in geo political terms but quite where I have no idea at present.
We have the huge fog of war with many outcomes being in the unknown file and as a Company despite its lobbying of Uncle Sam (and at least we can see why it took place now) and the money which goes with it, is perhaps in a state of flux for obvious reasons but I have no doubt giving the experience of SN that or name at least is being shouted loudly behind the scenes. Many strange things happen as a result of important conflicts.

There is just a remote chance that we may have been a victim of uncle sams support policy. On one hand the Georgian Gov are financially encouraged to clean them selves and others up. On the other hand there is also the policy and finance to develop the O%G industry. From memory and I am willing to be corrected the arbitration whilst completed has not been full enacted.
In my experience it is not beyond the realms of my experience that Government departments and or agencies work (And big companies!)in silos. Could it be that the Georgians were well aware of the games ( my words) that a certain former director was up to and therefore as part of the required clean up took action. At the Sam time uncle sam was pushing o&G? It may just explain part of our own lobbying in the US and a failure for the Georgians to push the final button to close down. Probably I am wrong but it does join some dots. if so there is still some hope left as all the rest will fall into place somehow. It may, given where not only where we are know but the changes in the O&G demand that we have been informed by looed about radio silence as some some quite difficult negotiations are taking place behind the scenes. Just a wild thought.

Hi Cymro.
Many thanks for your post. Do you ( or anybody else)know by chance what the reason for the need of what appears to be mainly arbitration?. My reason for asking are twofold. 1) could these spends be to try to resolve problems related to corruption or related issue? if so this could be helpful. 2) You mention one spend as specifically related to us. From previous posts ages ago by our intrepid explorers who have actually been there one of the problems was the state of the road network and form a vague memory ( maybe bugsy and co can be more specific) what roads existed were of such poor quality that transportation of any exploration oil was a nightmare to get to the rail head.

Agin in previous but recent post by me I mention of the huge amount of money that had been allocated by Uncle Sam for both anti corruption and also the oil and gas development. only some 25% had been spent and from what I can work out the rest was being held up/allocated was dependent on a clean up of both the Georgian government and its associates.

I just wonder if this could all be related or if there is a real move to clean up corruption? If so it just may be a very small but important ray of sunshine for us. A long shot I know.

Keyseroze BP will have been looking at this for a while but as a back burner. What this does do is a call to get the file out from the filing cabinet. BP it self will have a lot to think about over this. But I have no doubt they will be getting advice/pressure from the UK as this is all part of geopolitical movements. I would not be at all surprised if this is more of a keep china out situation as well as a plea from the Georgian Gov. It is now more than ever for our little investment which is still alive somehow to keep quiet as looed has suggested this really is a big boys game now. We are however well placed in the pecking order of the big boys games as long as the legal stuff comes good - I shall leave the legal stuff to others who are better placed to make comment. What is clear at least to me is that Uncle Sam's announced money into Georgia places a really strong pressure on the Georgian Gov to clean its act up. This may well be hard for them but they will be very much aware of this need given this announcement. This is a strong move in our favour but many things can still upset the apple cart which are out of our control.

Related is one one thing - and I do normally keep out f the techie stuff many more experts on this forum than me , but I seem to remember that the quality of the gas was so good that putting our gas into the main gas (BP owned?) was not a big issue. Well that may or may not become possible but what seems clear to me is speed. The western economies want cheap gas in quantity NOW and for the foreseeable future. It will of course take time be it us or somebody else but I guess in the oil and gas industry a year or so is in fact quite fast Techie people please correct if I am wrong but clean gas has to be better than dirty gas as I presume it adds to the time span (I think cost is irrelevant in Political terms it is getting off Russian gas is the driver).
Those who like to bash please don't I am only talking in terms of IF it all goes well for Georgian as a country and then us IF we can get all the necessary sorted out so YES I see this as positive but there are a lot of ifs and buts.

Time for a bottle of claret before the pub and a nightcap

erazzel
Totally take your point and agree but one thing for sure is that when doing the washing up Russia is going to have to do a real think about its military. It still has both the northan and central armies etc (which are much better trained and equipped) but as things stand they are needed to protect its legitimate borders. If history is anything to go by the military leaders in post some will go/ it will also need to re equip. and also have a stratgic rethink all of which will take time and money. There may also be more political movements internally. Clearly the pressures on Russia look like they will be place for quite some time along the lines of a cold war. A close look at the cold war may be of use for whilst it was in place with many ups and downs it was in effect a period of peace or more importantly a period of settled borders. A lot will depend on the final view coming from the west. In a purely best of all outcomes from our perspective is that Georgia will in effect be stable, if this comes about there positive signs as this will induce confidence both internally and externally. Remember when wars take place there are at least many positive opportunities and out comes as well as the negatives but it always involves changes which are too early to predict at this time.

Fibber. totally agree with you over where does Georgia face. Pro Russia /pro west or china? My own view is that it will wait until things settle down. My previous posts highlight just how much Georgia is on uncle Sams agenda both from geo political importance and from an inward investment point of view with a vast sum of allocated money unspent (mainly as it is staged investment subject to The Georgian Government sorting it self out re democracy and corruption). In my view the Urkrane situation is not only putting a lot on hold as political minds are focused elsewhere but my guess is what position Putin is left in when the main fighting is over. Certainly Russia will be financially weaker so I would think less of a player. China is not having to spend and Uncle sam won't care. What is clear is that Georgia if and when things settle down is still ripe for inward investment- indeed it is even on the UK list. So the question will remain for the Big O&G is it worth the risk. my guess is that it is but not yet. Today's announcement that Uncle Sam is relaxing its own O&G reserves to help increase the supply side is key these reserves will eventually need to be replaced whilst demand is still on the up.
So it is a bit of wait and see.

So far there has been no announcement to base Nato troops such as a battle group in Georgia

My original post was written prior to the NATO posts below by others.
This is a cut and paste re georgia with Uncle Sams point of view. Do not worry that it comes from 2010 as these are both strategic in nature thus over a long period of time but it just may explain something.Certainly it has come to the fore over the last couple of weeks.

With regard to the Nato announcement The UK has been working with Georgia re the military for some years now similar to the Ukrane. Officers are trained at sandhurst etc all done without any public a plomb ie soft power.

"Energy cooperation is one of the main pillars of Georgia-US bilateral relations. The US is deeply interested in diversification of the world energy markets and continuously supports projects in this regard. Georgia is viewed as a favorable transit country for the Caspian oil and gas resources.
On February 25, 2010 the Assistance Agreement was signed between Georgia and the USA. According to agreement, 122,500,000 USD as part of the 1 billion USD pledge, will be invested in the development of the Georgian energy sector and infrastructure."!

A number of factors put together just may add a little more hope. it could be I am making 1=1 +7!!! It was slipped out yesterday by a junior UK minster ie small print stuff which always happens that HMG is now encouraging North sea new production for O&G (net zero dead?) add it that shelll has already announced it is reconsidering its view on a shetalnd field then add in the HMG has already approved 6 new licenses. now add add in that O is predicted could go as high as $200 a barrel ( bit high in my view but still) lastly at least one big oil major as quietly not be buy back shares for a few days To me this sounds as if Big O&G is on the march again as this will involve some quite large capitol expenditure with a long term payback period.
Separately but possibly related HMG has just announced an announced a further 6000 anti tank munitions adding to the 4000 already donated to Ukrane just to add into the huge USA donation of equipment. I think at least on a Governmental level they are perhaps thinking the fighting is not a skirmish and will be longer term?.
Add the two together and at a minimum the worlds energy policies are in turmoil and for quite some time.

IF by chance we can get all of the legal stuff out of the way and all we have been told has a reasonable % chance of being true and it is at a low price out of the ground we perhaps have some form of a fighting chance at least in principle if not fact.
The key as always money. We may also have a glimmer of hope here as well. I have recently been looking at the relationships of The Georgian Government with Major western Govs. They are in fact quite good but especially with the UK and Uncle Sam. In short subject to improvements in both democracy and corruption AID money is released to support both Georgia to become self reliant in energy terms and also a safe transportation country ( presumably this is relating to the southern corridor interconector) Uncle sam so far has used about 20% of the allocated funds and it is an overall big number. To me this explains a number of things ie our ongoing lobbying perhaps some of the support we have had from Baker huges and others - from memory there we questions over how this was paid for.
The above para over money is from official sources but were pre Ukraine. These policies will be tinkered with somehow given the new situation.

From my own area of an interest in the Geo political stuff as opposed to the techie stuff where we have some real experts. I recon that if we can get our own stuff together then in this new era of uncertainty with the BEAR we could be game on with an O&G major in some form or another. This will all take guess what TIME.

Just my little muse.

All we want now is for Mr Mole to appear from underground! I gather even he has gone back to the Malt.

Prods do not worry Cats have nine lives, mind you I think Frr has used up 8

Coggs. Wasn't the same during covid. I really missed my 1/2 bottle of Claret for breakfast. Rather spoilt my pallet for electric soup at elevenses. before a quick visit to the battle cruiser at lunchtime. As for afternoon tea that went out of the window so I was gasping for the 1537 at London bridge and nobody else around for company to replenish supplies with. I ended eat food which I can assure you is most distasteful. All a bit like good ole FRR. I shall return to normal fully when the gas is flowing.

Hope all is good with you.

Prod and coggs. I'm gong back to drinking, in case I get called an old codger. Prevention is better than the cure

I am not convinced that Nato will be end up being involved. The real question is what are puntins eventual aims? it seems to me there are options. one is certainly to re create the empire of Peter the Great and Catherine or is it the USSR or something else? The next question is just how long is he looking into the future to achieve his aims. The west and specifically us in the UK were very good Kremlin watchers but as part of the peace dividend we literally stopped watching and closed down the then FCO department so between us and the USA we "flying partially blind" If history is anything to go by the Russian people will accept far more pain than any western country. Mother Russia is very powerful. Underestimate it at your peril and the few dissidents are nothing more than an annoyance to the Kremlin. This could all last in some form for a very long time

It seems clear to me that Nato is not going to act unless puntin is daft. so what will he do? it could be an option to continue along the coast, take Odessa and then what. Possibly go for Moldovia as well? it is certainly a possibility as he will not be up against an army or air power. so what about Georgia? just a prediction I really do not think that china is going to be too upset about Moldova (sadly) but Given that China has already male noise about the principle of Sovereign state recognition (quite strongly by their standards) Georgia has just what china needs which is O&G, and given that Putins style is a scorched earth policy in terms of buildings and infra structure this just might make China really put there foot down. In real terms China is in a difficult position despite being an economic power house as it is so reliant on imports especially O&G It is easy to say that Russia will provide but it is not as simple as that. China is not stupid and it will not want to be reliant on single sources when this settles down and if the court cases go completely in the right direction. Georgia could have to really make its mind up. Yes OK they are pushing the button on EU membership ( with a fairly positive response and may be even join Nato or could it change and face china? China will not invade and does not interfere directly at least with Governments in independent nations it just uses money which is just what we need. Interesting I think but a long way down the road with many twits and turns. I do have to say I am disgusted with the EU. It was posted on this site that the EU was fully aware about the risks of energy reliance indeed they had a policy on it and did nothing. The first rule of Empire building is to get your own house in order before going on the march. It despised Nato and just starved it its finances are basically corrupt. what a mess some EU leaders are almost as bad as Putin but that democracy for you.

Hi Prod. Thanks for the comment. As you know this is only an opinion and not to be taken as gospel. There is one nagging thought from the past. Putin has always been after a warm water port for his navy. There is one of a suitable size and depth of water some 30 miles from where most of his troops are. It is in my view just possible that this is foremast in his mind and he might just want a corridor with just a very small part of the Ukraine hived off. That would suit him and possibly given the long term goals a possible port for China?. 30 odd miles would not be to difficult to both defend and hold. To save an all out war and given the weakness in Europe and the USA in foreign policy it really could be Munich moment ( Peace in our time!) just my guess.
I should really post something on the difficulties of being a buffer state - its not easy! As I think even bigger countries than Georgia ARE finding out as of now which again the weakness of the west is finding out. Many have warned about this but it has all fallen on deaf ears. I would like to point a finger at few but wisdom tells me to keep my mouth shut for the present as what ever happens many minds are being focused on past mistakes. so a case of watch somebody else space - someone will speak out probably a retired western general( UK?) to begin with and many will follow!

Your comment re development of the North sea I completely agree with. It is simply not worth the aggro when there are so many other opportunities ( even though it seems that the banks in the UK are still lending to big O& G they can not afford not to) Boris at present has made a rod for his own back on this one especially as it would need the use of Scottish yards to build platforms and widow t****ey has also nailed her colours to the mast re green issues (the whole COP thing is a complete mess which many democratic governments will regret - what ever voters support they always change there minds when it comes to the £ in their pocket)

I suspect very strongly that due to issues relating to Russian gas supply issues etc coupled with Boris announcing that 6 new fields in the north sea can go ahead. quite a lot of dosh will be spent by BP/Shell etc and it will have public support.

Some will be aware that an vaguely useful contributions I have been able to make in past have been relating to at least a part of the geo political issues. Due to the present situation I feel it is worth adding a bit to the pot. In the past it really has only been the good ole USA who have taken an interest in Georgia regarding its political importance in the Balance of power and even that has has been focused on Russia. The EU have recognised that the reliance on Russian gas is a danger but the EU are an impotent organisation for many reasons in geo politcle actions as simply put they can never agree a common course of action within the nation states Things have actually moved quite fast. The weaknesses are now showing mainly around nordstreamII ( Germany mainly but France to) China has joined the bun fight and showed its hand. This is actually a huge opportunity for both the West in general and NATO in particular to sort its self out. One way or another a number of Buffers will be re inforced or have to be created both as a land buffer ( georgia is ideally placed for this) and reliance on Russian gas reduced ( Note the UK has already reacted with 6 new sources to be developed in the North sea back on the cards) Georgian gas is further up the importance levels especially as Russia and china have agreed a deal. Whats good for Georgia is good for us but is also good for east, west/ china relations.
Nobody wants the present actions of Russia to cause trouble in a military sense and a huge game of chess is taking place. As long as this does not go upside down this is helpful.
You then have to add in another factor. Big oil and gas for the foreseeable future say two years are basically money making machines. However they are under attack ( except in the USA) politically - I doubt if windfall taxes will come into play, they have too much of a good defense, However they must be seen to do something. Options share buy backs (they are already doing this) Reduce debt - not always a good businesses move or go on a spend up. Georgian O&G development could be back on the list. Could this be good for us? Don't count our chickens yet but it does make sense.

pot

Many thanks looed. If all pans out well the importance of the Housekeeping perhaps comes into play. Nothing in terms of any hope of a recovery (I wish) can not even start realistically until all the housekeeping is in order. Entrances from stage left as a surprise could really put a bigger spanner in the works

This is very much a lay question so forgive me if it sounds daft. the two extra motions placed before the court by us. Fee claim and permanent injunction. Is this just a tactic by our Lawerys to place even more pressure on the defense with the hope they will hold there hands up, or would this be they have have heard things the during the hearing which gives them extra confidence ? Anybody