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JV123
I thought bp were not interested in oil and gas anymore. I thought the CEO has gone woke and all electrical and they are in transition = is that M to F or the other way around?= !!!!
Not quite sure just how much can be blamed on brexit. from my observation most export markets are much slower due to the pandemic and its after effects. China is not helping by it lock down rules which are strangle hold on many parts including chips etc. at the end of the day for any exports to take place there has to be money available and the worlds economic situation really is having effects. Add in the Russian situation which is also not helpful. There is a general tightening of belts of those who have money available and those who need to borrow have an interest rate problem. All rather a toxic spiral. add in all the other factors like confidence and I just think it is unlikely to be able to blame any single factor. The issues is not really about any one factor at present it is more about who has money to spend /exchange .
I do not pretend to be an expert here. but there could be many reasons some of which may not have come to light. I do fully acept that it could be as simple as trying to re create a vision of the the old USSR but no war normally has just a simple aim. Listening to a BBC Radio 4 prog last week it was all about rare earth metals ( which actually are not all that rare) It seems that the Ukrane is one of the richest areas of rare earth metals in the world - could this be at least one of the reasons? As again from the prog I am no expert it seems that one way or another China controls at least 90% the supply of the metals and with the drive to net zero it is becoming a key asset with the need for lithium for batteries ( as well as the other metals as a bonus) As a side issue there are vast amounts of lithium down Cornwall way but the greens do want mining!. I mention this only because Georgia is not that far away in geological terms. Could it that the Georgian Gov has set it sites on mining rather than oil and gas? hence no real push? Any body know what the ground assets of georgia are? if my guess is right than it may explain all the delays for us
Up date . it appears that two major leaks from Nordstream 1 have now been discovered. Rather an interesting point - rather reminiscent of a scorched earth policy from the past and indeed the present. Thoughts anybody?
It has just been released that there is a major leak from Nordstrem 2 under the sea a a no go zone has been declared. I know that it is supposed to be in active but with the dire gas requirements of Europe there may be some "leakage" into the European gas system which we do not know about. However if we are taking it at face value that the pipe line is not in use then this does pose some interesting questions. I will find it hard to believe that this leak will not be repaired for many reasons not least the fact that at some point the Russian sanctions will end and some sort of normality will return., it is pointless going into all the details as to why but one key detail is that lessons learned is that after conflict there has to some form of rebuilding of sanctioned countries other wise you have a set up for another war. However undersea repairs are expensive in most cases and I would hazard a guess that this will not be the only problems with both of the Nordstream projects for the time period of the present conflicts. I am no expert here (others will have the knowledge) but how do you maintain a pipe line which is so called out of use with no income? I would presume that there are on going maintenance costs and who is paying for it? again I guess but you simply cannot just abandon it safely and clearly it is a pressurized vessel Again I can only guess that it will be funded by debt and we live in troubled times here as well.
It would seem sensible to me that both pipe lines will be mothballed but again I guess to bring back into use safely after mothballing will take a considerable period of time. Years? Given the expected increase of demand for gas My own view is that this does further increase the reason for our little investment to literally help out the wests demand of gas in the medium to long term. I do fully accept the delay for legal reason as explained well by others but it should not delay some of the geo political reasons for advancement even if behind the scenes as the longer the delays in total the more the kettle in risk terms could go off the boil. We can only hope that these issues are being dealt with with some urgency and with a great deal of pressure from say Uncle Sam ( I simply do not trust the EU on this) In effect set a process that when the legal stuff is out of the way it is all systems go. My fear on this is simply that I would not be at all surprised if China wants a finger in the pie and has Uncle Sam got this on there radar. Some may not like this but I wish Trump was still in power as this certainly was on his radar -not so sure with old bumberly. Just a bit of a muse
It seems that Europe is really in trouble over gas and oil supplies. Last week they started discussions to all join together to attempt to block buy energy on the world market. As ever I expect they will have difficulty to all agreeing with each other even though minds are focused. The real cheek in there discussions is that for it to work for so called leaks in mainly the gas inter connectors is that they want co operation from the UK. Various diplomats stating that the war on the UK ( for leaving?) must end/ BXXXXXXY cheek. This can only increase pressure to get more and new sources of gas. The only figures stated were that although gas use from Russia has gone gone in total the price is so high still that Russia is getting a lot more than pre the actions of Nations. They have a huge judgment to make as Putin has threatened to cut all oil and gas off unless sanctions are lifted. (Finland I gather has made it a criminal offense to heat houses over 19 degrees) In the short term The UK will be under huge external pressure for both north sea and to start fracking but will that pressure be greater than the green lobby in the UK? and will the powers that be put as yet real pressure on Georgia as new source of gas ? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62822368
one eyed chris. well your name does rather suggest something! the clue is in the GEO. The Ukraine is really only a pawn in a game of chess. But as we all know if you play chess a pawn can be either sacrificed or if you are a very good player crucial in achieving the end game by helping to create or even be the cause of a check mate! the key point is really the effect on the other more powerful pieces and if they are willing to accept the pain. what is vital is that a stalemate is not achieved. If you actually loose you can come back for another game but having learnt something. you learn very little from a stalemate other than wasting time, effort and a few lives ( which really don't matter) if an out right win is achieved. Not nice but true. try talking to either a general or world leaders. take no notice of either the press or those who allow emotions to rule their lives.
I have a nasty feeling that this has a bit of spin. Yes paying for somebody but on what basis? part time, full time. as and when? to me from a UK english point of view advisors are on a - as and when basis, but is if different in the good ole US of A?
Clarification needed
Well with Nordstream 1 now closed indefinitely after planned maintenance the bear. Somebody and the bear threatening to cut off oil to all those who who have sanctions against the Bear. Somebody needs a serious word so that court cases are advanced or settled one way or another. If the gas and oil is there I can't think of a better time to get a move on.
JV123
Your comment on coal is an interesting one especially when one looks at it from a world perspective. To start with I always say that be it coal, gas,or oil should be viewed simply as a chemical commodity it is rather less emotive. But like all commodities it comes in different qualities etc etc. The next issue is demand . well put in simple terms demand whilst we still have growing population demand will be reflected within the equation as will availability. There are other factors as well but simplicity sake lets keep it simple. When you put all the factors together the demand for carbon based materials only has one direction which is up unless its use in banned. For instance just taking coal. within even my own household with gas being a high price I have simply opened up my fire places and forward bought my fuel. I will personally save a fortune this winter so even if the lights go out I will have the warm glow of the fire and battery operated radio in the evening but scale all this up. and it appears that world is simply not ready yet for so called green energy and the gaps will have to be filled. All the points within an ancient equation of supply and demand still hold good. the only issue really is who is bold enough to invest in the available resources? Certainly all Governments who thought the buy in for green energy have a real problem if they are either a democracy or capitalist. as they have a disgruntled population who can not afford to heat ,light. or have goods etc etc. and it will focus minds at many levels especially those who are too full of emotion. for instance all this work from home stuff be for or against it. it is estimated that WFH will cost each individual some £2500 extra in the UK in energy bills this winter. If I was still young and IF I had eco credentials I will be running back to the office to save the cash. This type of thing all scales up very well as there is nothing more that focuses the mind like money. There simply is no need to over complicate things. Carbon based materials are here to stay for a long time even if if the wind is blowing! The only other real issues are where it comes from. Thats the gamble we have taken.another argument but perhaps not as complex as some try to make out (politicians take note)
Of course it all depends on if the oil and gas is there. and that is why it is high risk.
Pudster have a great one . Sorry i can't join you for some refreshments but I will be thinking of you when i down my next bottle of Port. PS Its all downhill hill from now on so enjoy every moment you have left and let the devil take the hindmost!!!!!! I personally have gone back to my 20's and thought I was invincible and repeating everything but with the extra knowledge I have now. Haven't been sober for months! The rest I can't talk about!!!
I have seen talk that OPEC+ may be reducing production soon - could make life interesting if they do.
One day rodney. Fully support your view about any large big industry investors. However it does cross my mind that in the grand scheme of things it was SNs hope that when first launched on AIM it would naturally get PI investment to get things going with the then hope that SNs mates in big industry would hoover the lot up at some point in the future ie just before any worthwhile public announcements? A real long shot I know but stranger things have happened especially on AIM. As it is he he stuck with a load of angry PI's who perhaps he does not know what to do with? A real whakey thought but it kind of fits
In an interview last night with the defense correspondent of the standard all of a sudden Georgia came up. A simple one liner I know " Georgia is stagnant in so far as facing west or to Russia as well as the neighboring countries" I can understand where he is coming from on this but, I think more help in making there minds up would help. This has to be down to uncle sam which I am cautious about and certainly the the EU is all mouth and no trousers on this despite public statements so far. It does seem a little that the west is still too weak in actions with regards to both Russia and china's ambitions for liking and I do understand how long it takes for policy changes but tempus fugit
Hi contra off message I know but but I remember that period well it was quite a funny period as the toll gate which is the only one left in London unless you count the ULEZ., used to both charge the old bill for going through but best of all the road traffic act did not apply then., so in my youth getting through the toll gate was very important as old bill could not catch you for speeding and other crimes(?) as they had no authority! on a more serious note the money made from the toll gate helped the foundation of Alleyn's college of Gods gift - Hence Dulwich college (my old school) Alleyns JAGS and three other less well known schools have a boost of some £23 million a year. The set up has changed now but is only technical the principle purposes are still the same. Perhaps I should ask the the powers that be to invest in our little investment! Off subject i know
Really good to see you are still around Mr Mole. As ever a bolt to face reality over this share. As you quite rightly say there is a way out for the players but only if some common sense comes into play and as they say that is not so common. Even if they get all company matters resolved it will ultimate depend on the Georgian Gov and could be complete stopper. I think there in lies the rub for all concerned. Personally I cannot judge what is really going on there, Certainly there are many external political pressures on the Gov but in itself it has many waring factions on fundamentals with perhaps the income to be able to develop the country fairly low down on the list of priorities. I still think may govs still view the Ukraine crisis as a short term issue in there terms made worse by Uncle Sam being weak in its thinking and dithering in many areas ( excluding short term issues like arms etc) I for what it is worth think this is very much a long term problem but what do I know!
So there are a lot of chips to line up which is looking more and more difficult but not impossible. Like many I can only live in hope but have basically written this off.
Keep well my friend.
Hi Coggs I hope is all alive and well!!!
You should know me . it a set up question in the way you ask/ It is inviting the thought that europe is bigger than Russia> Have to get a free pint out some mugs !! I know some people who think Germany is bigger than Russia on its own! Such poor schooling these days. Mind you the good one is Siberia!
EkXoc
Whilst I fully recognise your analysis, If history is anything to go by Russia simple does not work like other economies. Firstly the Russian people will take huge amounts of pain. food, clothing heat etc It is their blood. vast numbers of the population have nothing anyway and just rely on the state. Secondly the Government have always done what is necessary at any cost for political ambition, thirdly Russia has so much that the west needs and the west cannot get else where so some types of sanctions simply will not be done by the West as the west will only take so much pain. If Russia needs Dollars ( it has been buying dollars for years and banking them) it always has the reserve of both Gold and diamonds - Nobody has a clue how much but those two will always find a way to be traded even in vast quantities. It is not quite the same as the USSR days but not far off. The shere scale of Russia is hard to understand.
When trying to explain the scale of Russia down the pub I always ask the company. " How many times will Russia fit inside Europe - It is after all only a country?" You may even be surprised by the answer yourself.
Last point most of Russia has no internet TV s are rare as no signal so they only receive Russian propaganda! Ideal circumstances for a dictatorship where " Mother Russia is in the peoples blood"
Lastly just remember that the West has its own propaganda machine, If there are demonstrations against (which I suspect is true) in Moscow a lot of the country will not even know about let alone agree with it.
There is an old Political saying " Be careful what you wish for" Given that every Prime minister I have been aware of from Wilson onward has been untruthful to Parliament and just as an example Blaire re WMD Thatcher the Zircon affair. I can not help but think that this has only come about thanks to social media creating a storm in the public arena. What I do know is that this has come at a very inconvenient time. It is easy to forget living in the UK just how important the UK is to the rest of the world and how much the ROW looks to the UK. this is all very unseemly what ever your views are of anu one individual.
As ever the are some real truths ,one of which is how superbly this Country thanks to our politicians has the ability too shoot one selves in the foot and it is all based upon the egos of Parliamentarians. It does highlight the need for calm heads. Look at the way BP dealt with deep water Horizon. It could have killed us all off. Have a think!
Chase Manhatton this week end made a forecast that oil may reach $235 a barrel by about the end of the year/spring! This is based upon the following circumstances. Nordstrem 1 is presently closed due to planned maintenance but will Russia re open it? We already have a shortage of production of refined hydrocarbons and as much of the void will increase gas demand a lot. They mention that the UK may well have to close its exports of pipeline gas in the winter to keep up with demand. which will have a knock on effect into Europe.
Well its A scenario which is anybodies guess if it will happen, but whilst it will not affect any of our court cases directly, I ask the question will it affect our court cases indirectly?especially as we are at a standstill.
It would make sense to me that putting funding in place thus leading to production is gaining more and more importance, but of coarse this will not move forward until the court cases are resolved but could it put pressure on all parties to resolve these legal matters out of court thus clearing the way quicker for a return to some sort of Business as usual? Just a muse on my behalf