Member Info for DShox

L2
2.1p 50,000 09:56
2.498p 75,000 09:54
2.5p 100,000 09:42
2.5p 100,000 09:54
2.626p 100,000 07:54
3.998p 100,000 09:36
4p 100,000 08:25

I'd also add Macron is leading in the polls two weeks before presidential elections and he appears to be riding high on his approach to the war. Certainly looking very states man like. French companies have been noteworthy in at best suspending operations in Russia with some pushing back, asserting they'll stand by their employees and customers. Macron has maintained direct talks with Putin and chided Biden over using escalatory language. So I expect Macron would do very well to see peace in Europe break out barely a week before the French go to the polls and he'll no doubt want the favour returned by Moscow for his country's pragmatism.

MOEX opens on Friday for foreign investors to sell their equities.

Wishful thinking or a number of events coming together that makes words more important than war.

Hopefully a ceasefire and work towards roadmap implementation prevails. Macron also been on the blower.

Liz Truss today a timely interview to withdraw most "crippling" sanctions on withdrawal and commitment to peace etc. Her comments similar to US Blinken's comments on Wednesday that sanctions can "go away" and "not intended to be permanent".

This so-called Phase 2 of the war will be a long one. Its an attritional exhaustion of Ukraine's eastern well fortified lines. Russia has been taking out fuel depots and stores now even far west. Main roads are being cut in the east and rail disrupted. Arms from Poland need to travel >1,000km as the crow flies to the eastern frontline.

Floods will start very soon that'll bring with it muddy conditions for logistics and prevent any bold moves.

So real diplomacy, a phase of attrition and weather conditions might all help close this conflict next week.

Alot of Lawrence talking about PM.

On POG, could be asking too much for morning RNS update. Nonetheless the elephant is practically solvable by transferring or suspending the debt with or without offtake, use of escrow as required until sanctions lift or a sale to private entity is arranged, noting of course POG's CEO sold Highland Gold to a private gold miner for over £1bn before it was then de-listed.

Hopefully there's a peace deal and Zelensky prioritises this over appearances at the Oscars.

A ex UK commander said the defenders, entrenched for 8 years, have an effective 10 to 1 advantage but I wouldn't buy the argument Russia's armed forces are anywhere near to depleted. They'll camp in position except for Donbas and if there's no resolution, it's a wait for the weather to improve (muddy conditions clear).

I don't believe those investing their weekend trying to spook a couple of sells quite understand the issue here. Calling it "gold sanctions" is wrong. The US and UK only sanctions on the Central Bank is to prevent it selling its refined bullion reserves - the same as preventing it using its USD and EUR. Nothing to do with selling semi refined gold dore or concentrate from a mine.

Once again, the issue is the UK restrictions on dealing with Gazprombank (which I believe the EU sanctioned weeks before?). So it strikes me that the sensible solution will be to suspend the debt payments and amend the contract so POG sells directly to the refinery. The debt payments could go into an escrow account and released when the sanctions lift.

My view is that the war is heading to conclusion otherwise it will enter a pause until May (when weather allows a fresh move on Kyiv), which nobody wants. Interestingly there's a notable increase in countries and corporates now calling out the West and Zelensky that's will be sending strong signals sanctions are done and isolation haven't worked as hoped.

Still looking at Friday to see if MOEX allows foreign investors to sell equities. Zelensky knows his best trained forces in the east are struggling. That fuel depot south of Kyiv wasn't even that big and was described as the largest left available.

Sanctions have reached their limit and the blowback already being felt. The rest of the world isn't sitting by idly as mainstream news might have you believe. China, India, SA, UAE, Saudi, Iran, large parts of LatAm arent following and even then, EU continues to buy Russian oil and gas. The West knows everyone is moving to lessen dependence and integration with it and new partnerships are forming. BlackRock CEO has now called de-globalisation as a result.

In a week, Mariupol's Azov will be finished and probably Donbas taken. Ukr forces are surrounded and stuck in cities and key supply locations hit.

I believe most broad points of negotiations are there except for how the security guarantees work and ceding territory. All Zelensky needs to do is implement the terms of the Minsk Agreements and stop attacking the population, which France and Germany were supposed to help push through. With Azov close to extinction, that's probably easier to do.

Steps to re-value shareholder value in my assessment:

1. Gazprombank sells debt ideally to Chinese bank for a fee of course including interest payment on loan agreement now force majeure.

2. Gold offtake also transferred or replacement with direct sales possibly via a specialist trader to refineries either in Russia, Kaz or China.

1 & 2 solve for the current share price crippling effect of having a loan with a sanctioned bank and unable to sell gold, expect sp re-rate and benchmark against POLY if management is successful.

3. Management undertakes strategic sale process focused on Russia and Asia region to monetise value of the business.

Again, gold mines that produce dore bars such as POG don't pour every day and don't sell immediately as soon as a bar is poured. The bars will be held in the secure gold room before a secure transit ships to the refiner for conversion into bullion. Point is, this is at worst a minor potential interruption to immediate cashflow that will not stop production. The issue is GPM. POG has cash with a number of smaller banks and thus existing relationships. Solutions could involve paying the interest due to escrow for later release and then GPM selling the debt to another bank or GPM selling the lot (incl interest) to another. Trick is to remove GPM from the sales to refinery chain. POG could easily set up sale to refineries. Perhaps it will and remove the offtake obligation to avoid any future potential interruption. Thinking aloud.

cos its semiconductors pouring into Russia and Infosys that's the problem

anyway good weekend

1.6 350,000...16:25
1.899 50,000...16:26
1.9 100,000...MREX...09:18
2 80,000...07:50

Some big clips changing hands. After hours RNS would be nice. I'll settle for Monday open too.

L2 ASK, mind the gap

1.647.....57,955......................15:58
1.647p...50,000.....................15:58
1.65p.....350,000...................14:03
1.9p........100,000..... MREX...09:18
2p............80,000...................07:50
2p............100,000.................09:25
2.2p.........100,000....SCAP.....08:20

I believe we will see a positive RNS early next week. Main question at this stage is which lasts longer, BJ or the war? Talk of months by either side is brinkmanship. Neither side want it to drag on. Putin will want to take out Mariupol to finish off Azov for his denazification optic (remember Azov told Zelensky to politely go away in 2019 when he asked them to disarm so will probably do him a favour in the negotiations) and which will join the campaign to surround Donbas. Zelensky has already agreed to ditch NATO and approved neutrality. So then its down to the detail.

Its a complicated exercise understanding new sanctions but lets be fair, I suspect management started spinning the wheels before today's RNS given no secret Gazprombank is sanctioned.

GPM is, I can only conclude, the reason POGs sp is where it is relative to POLY. Today's RNS wasn't to do with new sanctions on bullion sales from Russia's Central Bank (which won't work anyway), but the fact a sanctioned bank provides debt finance and offtake purchases to POG. So this to me is not new news, but butting up against the state bank sector sanctions. The workaround, after some long hours overnight and through the weekend, will solve the immediate and broader problem that has hammered the share price. Transfer the debt and sales obligation to one of or the many smaller banks POG already does business with, and gold sales proceed as normal.

So it basically sells to refineries in China and Kaz, which is I'd suggest the smart thing to do here but just replace the credit facility with another bank.

Interesting. L2 looks a bit more balanced and someone is loading up.

Anyone know who this outfit sells its gold through?

Only reason POG sells its gold to GPM is because GPM has provided some debt and revolving credit facility. As GPM is a sanctioned entity, the debt will need transferring and with it the offtake.

Was this really a result of new gold restrictions? The new restrictions are to stop the Central Bank selling bullion to finance the war etc, not on gold miners selling dore product to refineries. So little surprised by RNS.

Seems to be strengthening.

By the way, the grown up term is 'expropriate' and we've done that one. You'll have to try harder. There's clearly no need and it's not in Russia's interest.