Member Info for DrMaccers

Poor Steve’s outlook not as bright as the dawn. Nicely up today. More out that don’t want in. Lovely stuff

NT at 5.8. 5.9 for anything. 6p today

well I'm bullish but id have my doubts lol. Id take it tho.

Looks like persistent seller has run out of ammo. This should trade significantly higher during September tho. Imagine a huge Saudi Aramco deal, BF deal and a few tech deals before xmas. Could be a great end to the year...

I liked how this was name dropped in the interims webinar as a potential opportunity in KSA. I imagine it’s a real possibility or wouldn’t have been in there, I can’t remember seeing it specifically before.
They now call Freeport of Monrovia in Liberia their “West African Port operation” so to actually name Saudi Aramco was telling Imho. Looking forward to Q4

Nice, first director buys in quite some time. Interims out of the way and its almost like they know the $500mill 20 year DRC deal should have multi bagged the company.

The economics of the deal are well known. I don’t know why people pretend not to know them
WSG get $25/passenger departing the airports. This was over 1mill precovid
They’ve conservatively stated they’ll get at least $6mill in year 1 which equates to 240k passengers. They make profit at that level. Costs are relatively fixed so at say 500k passengers and $12.5mill you’d be looking at $6mill+ profit. They’ve stated numerous times the margin for these MSCs is over 50%

Normally not. For most of aim is holes in ground pre revenue ******. But when the broker target is based of actual metrics like revenue and profit they are a tad more meaningful

I presume they dont think its unlikely as the broker is targeting 18p on 2022 numbers and id guess they can see what contracts are coming up and they value they will bring. I think it'll go much higher personally over the next couple of years.

Do you think they will get the ratification. 3rd time I've asked now. Strange you've not answered

Very much so. You posted "IF" and "STILL"
I asked you a direct question and you avoided it. You might be the illiterate one Foxy.

Will DRC deal be ratified, yes or no?

So are you nailing your balls to the wall and saying the DRC contract won't be ratified?

Guarding

I forgot to mention guarding. Like the Interim RNS, PF states the guarding side of things is about to perform a step change in revenues. There must be some big deal in the offing

Not to mention Iran lol. I'll happily discount it to zero until JCPOA back. Who knows what will happen. The Yanks are in a funny mood.

All in all they do seem to have turned a corner and if these things all play out there isn't any doubt the SP will be multiples higher. The trick is not to get annoyed its not much higher now and sell. Or sell when it does rise a bit but that is just confirming everything is on track. For me, if they keep delivering (big if apparently!) then this will be a multi year hold for me

Unsurprisingly im bullish so im sure the usual lot can comment for the bear case...

Financials/Forecast
PF is repeatedly bullish about not just 2021 numbers but more importantly the 2022 numbers with £23mill revs and £5.3mill profit. There was a nice table to show where the revs gap from H1 to H2 is coming from and onwards to 2022. These aren't just made up numbers. They've to show the broker, nomad etc and if they mislead the market its a big deal. Hitting 2021 numbers will be impressive but certainly that huge jump to 2022 numbers will be colossal for the SP

DRC
Its signed and can't get unsigned he says. Although cant earn us any money until ratification so you can understand why we want that. Covid, personnel changes in DRC and the bike/aircraft crash all sighted as causes of minor delay. PF says its all a formality citing all the gov agencies involved and i would tend to agree. Anyone calling this as not going to happen will have egg on their face at some point soon

Technology
PF liked the "right shifting" chat but its likely true. There seems to be a number of large tech sales in the immediate future, certainly one looks nailed on to bolster the 2021 numbers up to £15.7mill rev targets

Current MSCs
Tema working well and expanding, SL airport up at over 70% numbers now. All good things, may it continue. Tema seems more immune to coined that the airports tho.

Boarder crossings
This was one of my questions (they read out a few). Not an imminent contract but sounds like a tech sale that turns into multi year revs. Perhaps one to land in 2022. He quoted the scanners can be up to £15mill+ so certainly not going to harm a FY revenue if/when one lands

BF
Initial report sent to gov. Im sure it say "everything you have is ballix, you need xyz which we can provide for $x/passenger". If they get the same $25/passenger as DRC then that's great cash. The main International airport has about 700k passengers which would mean revs of $17.5mill/year

KSA
Again they seem bullish albeit progress is slow. Their man on the ground is on the ground in Japan. They are bringing him back to the open day to meet some folk then sending him into KSA to finalise banking arrangements etc. I hope they then don't have to start from scratch but merely conclude some of the deals. They mention the KSA 2030 project thingy again but extremely interestingly name drop Saudi Aramco for the first time to my knowledge. I wouldn't mind an RNS to say we are guarding the bank value at Aramco HQ

All in all i was happy. They didn't discount further right shifting of work meaning financial slipping but were at pains to say its not lost revs they just get booked later an boosts the next years total.

What say you bears...

Which contracts?
He’s stated DRC is profitable at $6mill revs and basically fixed costs.
He’s also stated MSCs are over 50% margin

Get yer questions in. Ive submitted a few

Maybe read the notes? They have said 15.7mill for a while.
Thanks for playing

“ I questioned meeting expectations (15.7) this morning. That’s trolling obviously - until Arden rowed back to a figure almost exactly as I’d suggested. And that’s dissing?”

Arden have previously and continue to reiterate a 2021 revenue figure of £15.7mill
You haven’t a clue and can’t even troll coherently

I suggest 250%. I would also suggest 250% is x3.5 not x2.5. Thanks

It’s not wishful ****e

It’s an official market forecast by the broker from company figures signed off by a Nomad. One or 2 professionals and legal team involved vs a dude I don’t know on a BB who doesn’t like the stick cos he lost money on it.