RE: Anybody career to put a1 Apr 2024 15:53
I think you have to assume a higher starting rev and for it to rise dramatically over the course of the initial contract.
The Ndjili airport is being rebuilt by Milvest in the next 2 years at $1.2bill and they are actively trying to get off the EU blacklist like SL are about to do. This should dramatically increase revs going forward
So with that said, i would estimate at least $12mill+ or £10mill revs in first year at 60%+ margin is £6mill profit with the group already at breakeven. The margin for the MSCs is north of 60% with the tech deals bringing down the group margins.
£6mill profit on a PE of 10 is £60mill Mcap and an SP of 18p
So after a full year of just DRC running and the rest of the business at breakeven, 18p would be appropriate. What it is worth on initial contract finalisation is what folks are willing to pay.
It's not hard to see how the BOD think 26p+ is coming, if you add another sizeable MSC that would do it alone. SL is coming off the EU blacklist and have a nice new terminal so revs will start to rise.
All in all, im happy to ride the SP well north of the companies initial 26p target if DRC is delivered and working as indicated.