Member Info for DrMaccers

Whilst you’ve traded a few hundred here and there I, like others, were buying %s of the company in the low 1s

I’d wager im up more money in WSG than you’ve ever seen but hey ho

This shows just how difficult it is and how long it takes to get these types of contract negotiated and over the line. You have to do significant amounts of work to get the in and prove you should get the contract.

Bloody great work from WSG and Euro Ops. Props to vincent Toscani

Perhaps you can give a little paragraph to explain the association between frequency of trades and the uselessness of a company and how you have came to quantify it?

The term would be illiquid, which again, doesn't attest to the quality of the company, just the market for said company.

You boys are rather dim at this point.

Misty, judging by your use of "your", you don't have a firm grasp of the tongue.

You are confusing concern with risk. DRC country risk is to be factored into the price and what you think the reward should be to offset it.

I think all investors are happy with the current risk/reward of the contract given the SP, expected revs/profits and growth.

Perhaps if you can't quantify or consider risk and especially risk vs reward you shouldn't be commenting on it, let alone investing. Although you are probably a 2 bit trader.

lol

so now you are here posting ****** on a bb trying to get a share price down? one of life's winners

Sells from yesterday

Absolutely cracking news.

You can see how the initial $10mill revs from a historic 400k embarking passengers will be blown out of the water in a year or two.

Qatar has added flights, Air france are adding an extra one, huge pressure on BA to add flights and then if they get Dubai as well of the internal African routes...

Not hard to see $15mill from just international passengers in 1-2 years. Domestic doubles it as will cargo. Its simply huge and all you need to do is hold.

Id say there is likely to be more on the flights but even at that level, we are highly geared and the $600k revs will have a negligible opex to deal with it.

Likely $500k/£400k profit which with the group at breakeven (ignoring DRC), is very welcome profit.

In a normal world adding that much profit from breakeven would do wonders for the SP. Even adding £400k profit should add £4mill in mcap on a PE of 10, which would be a 50% rise from here alone.

The SP was nearly 6p 3 years ago on the first DRC news before the wait for ratification. Only the loss of Tema but cost cutting etc so i think better EBITDA.

Crazy its now less than half that now on finalised deal

Did you personally speak to him at that point or have any evidence of this?

Was he raising a small amount on the back of a hundreds of million rev contract?

Did he already have conventional debt term sheets on his desk?

They are not considering any death spiral type funding and just conventional debt.

At a finger in the air guess, I’d say they might want £1.5-2mill for this set up on top of what they have before the revs pay for it all come July

The initial funding is from cash reserves (£850k). Longer term capex/opex is from the revs of the contract itself which is profitable from day 1 in July.

There seems to be some intermediary funding needed which is going to be via debt. The CEO said he had lots of offers and term sheets ranging from ones that are pretty good to wonga style rates. They are just picking whatever suits the company in their T&Cs.

There seems to be another sizable contract that is ready to sign but they don’t want to in this DRC setting up period but will shortly after July. I guess that will need some Capex so likely picking debt provider that can also finance some capex of that before it starts and then pays for itself.

The CEO on the call last week said “that would be silly wouldn’t it” about placing at this SP after avoiding one for 3 years

To correct myself from earlier, on a placement at this price PF said “that would be silly wouldn’t it”. So there we go

There he is. Loads of reasonably articulated posts for people and asking you specifically what’s been fooled but you are incapable of it lol.

Don’t be fooled by Aiminghigh2021

As crack pots like the poster below you keep crying placement. Just like they have for 3 years but there’s not been one.

Fowler said, and I quote “I’d have to be crazy to place at this price” - from the investor call I was on

Yes a very holy trinity we were

December 2024 and is expecting to show a profit for the full year ending in June 2025.

It’s been years of waiting and years of pain for shareholders.

And for those who piled in at 30p and higher it’s a long way back for them to breakeven.

But for new investors.. opportunity? I think so.

I’ll be watching for the financing to be secured and following the company’s progress on getting everything ready for revenues to formally commence in July.

From Michael Taylor’s website (@shiftingshares) newsletter.buy the bull market.com

Posted with permission. I was one of the other PIs on the call with him

That said, management acknowledge that they will need to raise some capital to fund initial equipment to go out there.

They wouldn’t rule out an equity placing (which is sensible) but did say that Westminster hadn’t raised funds since June 2021 and has been trading breakeven through this harsh economic climate.

Management are in various discussions for debt finance, some with better rates and some with Wonga-esque rates, and given that this finance is needed sooner rather than later I don’t expect management to hang about (although they stressed that they will review these thoroughly and won’t be rushed).

They believe that this contract is worth 10p per share based on the NPV. The discount rate wasn’t given, which means the NPV is completely meaningless because we have no idea of the cost of capital, and so I asked for the discount rate and was told it was 10%.

As an aside, do management not give discount rates because they don’t understand how NPV works or because they want to hide something? Perhaps I should’ve also asked this!

But I was told this models on a small growth rate of 5% with no extra benefits factored in. So there is clear upside.

And the reason for the delay between signature and ratification?

When the contract was signed, there were documents getting lost, blockages, and all sorts of shenanigans. It was never anticipated but a lot of politics to play too as the airport authority had elements of different parties in it, and so the opposition parties didn’t want to let the president have a win there.

However, the president was re-elected at the end of last year with a much bigger majority and so the effect of the opposition was massively diluted and this has accelerated the process.

There are no broker notes available for Westminster and nor will one be available immediately. Peter Fowler’s preference is to delay until management has existing passenger numbers, and he would personally rather put a note out based on fact that is achievable and beatable, rather than on historic numbers.

So far, Westminster hasn’t been speaking to any institutions but Simon from Zeus mentioned that a number of institutions had left the shareholder register in the last few years and that they’d be re-engaging those as well re-initiating coverage.

In terms of upside from the contract, there is another multi-airport contract that was “on the cusp” of being signed last year that is hopefully being signed this year. Management don’t want it tomorrow because they want to deliver on this one first, where margins will hopefully tick up to ~40% after the capital expenditure intensive start up years. And after 6-9 months Westminster can start looking at cargo screening to add onto that too.

What’s important to note is that, assuming everything goes well (remember this is the DRC), then although there will be no financial impact for the year ending 30 June 2024 it is hoped that the company w

Embarking passenger numbers are around 400,000 and this is based on historic data, so it’s likely that the real number is higher than that, and it’s likely that it’ll grow significantly as the airport security improves.

Air France is looking to move to eight flights per week from seven, Qatar Airways is looking to start flights, and British Airways are being requested to start because the UK has the third largest diaspora of DRC people in the world.

Obviously, these are not guaranteed, so it makes sense to use the historic number as a conservative base, and if we model from $10 million then each passenger generates $25in revenue.

We also need to consider that the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) grades DRC airports poorly, and though the next audit is in November it’s going to be impossible for Westminster to get everything “tickety boo”. But ICAO look at the direction of travel, so this could be a start. British Airways won’t fly to the DRC because the grading is too low and this is also the case for Emirates. But the UK government is keen to get a UK carrier flying there and so is likely to be supportive as it has been so far with the signing.

It’s worth noting that Westminster will create a separate company in the DRC that will hire the employees as well as train them to operate the equipment, and because these costs are fixed then once revenue passes through (the contract is profitable from day 1) the additional numbers trickle down to the bottom line.

An example given is that if WSG puts through another $100k in passengers, no new extra personnel are needed and so no extra costs.

The way the contract works is that there is a security fee attached to the embarking passenger’s ticket (regardless of where booked) and they pay that tax to the airline through the ticketing system, and WSG collects that tax directly from the airline through the IATA (International Air Transport Association) system directly into the company’s UK bank account.

This is a huge positive because I assumed monies would be collected in the DRC and therefore there was a payment risk.

I quizzed management on this further though and they admitted that it may take some time initially to collect the money as it’s a new system, but this shouldn’t be an issue given that it is dealing with big airlines.

Whilst it’s certainly not guaranteed, it’s hard to imagine that Air France is going to default on payments.

So far though, the contract is only talking about the charge on embarking international passengers.

There is huge potential growth because domestic travellers are far higher than international - the DRC is the size of Western Europe and has a growing middle class.

However, it’ll take between 12-24 months to get all of this equipment into five airports.

And a lot of capex is going to come from the revenue stream down the line.