The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
As a codicil to that I am currently following Greg Mannarino to try to anticipate the market correction.
He has created an indictor, the MMRI (Mannarino market risk indicator) based on the debt market, yields, dollar strength to gauge risk. Back-testing it against previous market fluctuations it has been extremely accurate. It is constantly updated and a link is here:
https://traderschoice.net/about-traders-choice/
His twice daily market updates are also instructive and his track record is extraordinary:
https://www.youtube.com/c/GregoryMannarino
JMT - I agree with much of what you write. Medium term I see this as having good potential to at least double in price.
The thing that I'm unsure about is when the inevitable market correction happens whether to be in or out of PM miners. My hunch is they will be trashed short-term but will rebound high and fast. Increasingly I am looking to hedge by selling 50% on the next rise and hold the rest. Thoughts?
Perma - because the downside risk is technical, not fundamental. I have bought in because I believe in the strong investment case for FRES and the sector. However, as we all know, price action is often not determined by fundamentals but the cream will rise in time.
It is certainly true that the trend has been down for a long time but this will have its day in the sun. The money tied up in FRES could obviously have been employed more profitably elsewhere but I have learnt to trim my ambitions and avoid hindsight.
This morning it has held its support at the bottom of the ascending wedge, let's see if it lasts.
An interesting interview for Wall St Silver on why silver production is under pressure in Mexico. FRES is mentioned as a company expected to have a free pass from the government but, along with other big producers, currently seems to be being frustrated:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1onUXU-tD4Q
Big move on the US 10-yr yield
Yup, those crooks are relentless. Sometimes I laugh, sometimes I get angry. The PM market is a criminal enterprise.
The linked article says:
1) The upside is by their assessment CEY is undervalued by 50.2%
2) The downsides are earnings are forecast to fall by 14.4% a year for the next 3 years and the dividend is not well covered by earnings.