Member Info for DrJamain

No, Covid hasn't caused the impact, the government response has. That is why companies across the world have been lobbying.
The fall is in part due to Covid measures, it is also to do with labour reforms and lower grades. Also problems getting electricity hooked up haven't helped. Politics are involved here.
However if you want to see this as merely associated with Covid then be my guest.
In the end we agree on one thing - the SP will recover in time.

From here this just needs one positive RNS. It will come at some point.
In the meantime I wonder if the company are signalling that the delay to hooking up electricity, labour reforms and the Covid response are impacting a key economic sector.
Don't forget - the one thing socialists love more than control and moral vanity is...money.

PB - someone owns the free float and it's not just PIs like us. This SP will recover one way or another.

PB - so who is buying at these levels? The family?
Think about it - someone is going to end up holding this baby and they will not want to have it snatched away for f**k all. If the family wants to get this cheap then surely the institutional holders will bid up to make that impossible.
There is a long way to go here.

It is odd that they seem to be unconcerned about the SP and the negative news flow. Usually companies will promote a silver lining (sic) and a strategy to turn things around. It's almost as if they want the SP to crater for a time. If so, I wonder why?

Sadly I think there may be some way to go here, no reason for this not to be ripped apart for a time. Ouch!!

Yup, the forecasts are disappointing. Let's hope they have now lowered expectations sufficiently that future surprises are on the upside.

Well let's hope they've got all the bad news out and we can establish a floor to build from. An ugly RNS and an ugly day for holders.

Good to see the support level at the bottom of the ascending wedge held, silver looking strong - dare I begin to hope??!!

If profits, forward guidance, PM prices, hooking up the electricity don't help then maybe something on the dividend front might? Unless, of course, the powers that be have accumulated enough and want a rise.

As a codicil to that I am currently following Greg Mannarino to try to anticipate the market correction.
He has created an indictor, the MMRI (Mannarino market risk indicator) based on the debt market, yields, dollar strength to gauge risk. Back-testing it against previous market fluctuations it has been extremely accurate. It is constantly updated and a link is here:
https://traderschoice.net/about-traders-choice/
His twice daily market updates are also instructive and his track record is extraordinary:
https://www.youtube.com/c/GregoryMannarino

JMT - I agree with much of what you write. Medium term I see this as having good potential to at least double in price.

The thing that I'm unsure about is when the inevitable market correction happens whether to be in or out of PM miners. My hunch is they will be trashed short-term but will rebound high and fast. Increasingly I am looking to hedge by selling 50% on the next rise and hold the rest. Thoughts?

Perma - because the downside risk is technical, not fundamental. I have bought in because I believe in the strong investment case for FRES and the sector. However, as we all know, price action is often not determined by fundamentals but the cream will rise in time.
It is certainly true that the trend has been down for a long time but this will have its day in the sun. The money tied up in FRES could obviously have been employed more profitably elsewhere but I have learnt to trim my ambitions and avoid hindsight.
This morning it has held its support at the bottom of the ascending wedge, let's see if it lasts.

Agreed, any green shoots are very fragile and there is till significant downside risk. To quote Alex Ferguson it's squeaky bum time . However, when the wind is in the right direction this share shifts fast.

An interesting interview for Wall St Silver on why silver production is under pressure in Mexico. FRES is mentioned as a company expected to have a free pass from the government but, along with other big producers, currently seems to be being frustrated:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1onUXU-tD4Q

Big move on the US 10-yr yield

Yup, those crooks are relentless. Sometimes I laugh, sometimes I get angry. The PM market is a criminal enterprise.

The linked article says:
1) The upside is by their assessment CEY is undervalued by 50.2%
2) The downsides are earnings are forecast to fall by 14.4% a year for the next 3 years and the dividend is not well covered by earnings.

If your crystal ball is right then the opportunity gets better. However in years to come I doubt anyone will care about the difference at this level.

Blimey, it's getting close to top-up territory. Madness!!