Member Info for DrJamain

The chart doesn't lie. The trend line is there, clear as day.

Barhut, join the lows from late Sept 21 to date and you'll find that we've had a gently rising support trend in silver. If it breaks below this trend then I'd be concerned. Currently that point is about $23. If we hold above that trend line I see the bullish consolidation phase as intact.

The hawkish Fed talking interest rate rises is driving money into dollars. Will the dollar remain strong? No. It is confetti money. As rates rise, servicing debt will become impossible. This will lead to a recession. Rampant inflation and rate rises are a nightmare scenario for many businesses and households.

It is frustrating, there is no price discovery mechanism for the physical asset whilst the spivs can use paper to control the market. As far as I can tell silver and gold have been consolidating since the mid-2020 rises. They will break out but I no longer try to predict the trigger.

I agree, none of the major players here are interested in a 20% fluctuation - they are interested in multiples.

Looks like transformational news to me

It will happen but I've given up predicting when. I'm holding for:
1) PM breakout
2) Production problems resolved

Yup, it sure is dull, just treading water waiting for news or gold to move. I'll go and look at the broad beans growing, they are more dynamic than this!!

My guess is an equilibrium will evolve where new supply will ease prices somewhat and the market will learn to absorb higher battery costs. There may be some short-term pain in the battery market but I think the Li golden goose will adapt in time.

When it goes down you want to be out, when it goes up you want to be in - that's it. The problem is predicting the movements and dealing with your own psychology.

PMs came off their lows and the wider index came off its highs. Some grounds for hopes for tomorrow.

The Covid newsflow was used to manipulate markets, now the Ukraine newsflow will do the same: optimism to pessimism to optimism, hope to fear to hope and so on.

WT - if you liked that then enjoy this on a similar subject from George Gammon - slightly fanciful perhaps but the point he is making is valid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35x8N7Va8zg&t=1s

-0.56% is a fall, not a crash.

Looks like the PM fall is mainly due to rising bond yields, stronger dollar and interest rate hike bets. These will coil the PM spring tighter. I suspect Russia's gold/oil discount is to drive demand rather than to set a gold valuation.

Astonishingly we're holding up well on a Friday with PM prices under pressure.
Interestingly there has been good volume since the weak production report.

In a world where eco-thugs like Mark Carney suggest unethical companies will become extinct it is a reassuring RNS

USD is strong against other failing fiat currencies. Smart money will follow commodities, not paper.

I agree, the days of fiat are numbered. Excluding Russia from the dollar system is hastening its demise and the war allows more fiat dilution/printing. Current solutions seem to be CBDC with centralised controls or commodity backed currencies with cryptos on the margin.
The huge imbalances in the global financial system will come into play at some point and then PMs and other commodities will do very, very well.
In the meantime it certainly is an ugly day.

Slater, this is currently at the bottom of a rising channel from mid Feb. If it breaks below that channel you may be right, if it holds perhaps not.
Elliot analysis I've seen suggests one more dive to the bottom before an explosive rise.
We'll see.