Member Info for DRB83

Serica have a mcap currently of a little over £1bn. They have cash estimated to be £500-600m. That gives a EV of £400-500m. They are flowing 170mscf/d and are less than 20% hedged. They are basically 10x bigger NOW than Angs best case in 6 months time, have a tonne of cash ready to play with yet you believe Angs should more than half Sericas value in 6 months. Don't mean to be a damp squib but talks of 10p are just outrageous at this point. The hedge GL signed will likely cost Angs upwards of £150m lost revenue over the next 3 years and you seem to be completely ignoring the matter.

Asher, 10p is close to £300m mcap. How have you arrived at Angs being worth £300m in 6 months. What revenue, profit pe ratios are you using?

I ask because Kist are valued at £415m and probably have close to £65m in net cash putting them at a EV of £350m. Not far off your 6 month target for Angs. Kist are currently flowing 68mscf/d and are completely unhedged Vs Angs flowing possibly 10-12mscf/d with 50% hedged at 43p.

I appreciate Kist are massively undervalued but £300m in 6 months for Angs seems a bit overly optimistic.

It's likely GL will exploit more opportunities in the future but we can't really value that now can we.

To be a £6bn company we'd have to have 30 year reserves churning over £1bn revenue per annum. We're currently generating £60m and have 5 years reserves so let's just take it one step at a time and avoid the giant gravityless leaps.

Lol Johnnyy. Quick with the insults so I'm already 1-0 up.

If Hungary have an issue and the other 26 are able to coexist then what does that tell you. Hungary's current leader is more suited to the Putin regime but the EU tolerate him. I'm sure he would be more than welcome to leave if he wished. What would Russia do in such a situation. Simple. Eliminate them or at least try.

I'd be more than happy living in a west world. Having freedom of speech is great. Having access to all sorts of information from anywhere is great. I'm not sure how I'd cope with living in fear of being poisoned if I spoke out against the regime and also been dictated to on what I can watch on my TV. Yep, give me a peaceful west anyday.

Ukraine and Taiwan are current favourites because they are being bullied by the east. Why? Because they want sovereignty and to be able to make their own decisions. Why shouldn't they. Ask Ukraine and Taiwan if they don't want the west to intervene.

The west step in when there's potential global trouble. It's interesting that Russia seized the moment in WW2 to expand their territory. I mean did Russia mistake Finland for Germany. Did they assault Japan to protect the world or was it to reignite the 1905 war over who should own the Manchuria Islands. What about the nibble of Georgia in 2008. The one thing consistent about Russia is they don't need any excuse to wage war on anyone if they think they can expand their empire.

Anyway, nothing you can say will convince me that the west are the baddies and Putin, Kim jong-un and Lukashenko are the good guys. I'm sure nothing I say will sway you either so believe what you will and let's leave it there. I'll let you have the last word as the western way is to find peace.

Ok so what they have we lack and I'm pretty certain they'll be things we have that they want too so when it comes down to it we'd all prosper much better as one rather than a east west divide. The divide imo is because the ones on the right seem to want to full control and be completely autocratic and expand their empires by picking off nearby countries/republics whilst the ones to the left are democratic and let the people speak whilst recognising sovereignty and helping others out when big bullys come along. Unfortunately, if Russia would just play nice and want to be apart of a fair world then the west would have happily received them but instead control hungry Putin just wants to be Peter the Great. Thing is, we're not in the 1700's anymore.

Anyway, back to UFO. Great end to the week. Looking forward to seeing the Finance model for Han****.

I'll go June

Win or lose, you fight for what's right and that's democracy and sovereignty. Russia are now a pariah state and it's there own doing imo.

He clicked like by accident
A family member works for Novacyt
He has friends at Novacyt
Appreciation of fellow industry competition products
Possibly a connection between Clonit and Ncyt, partnership maybe
He has an interest in the industry
He has a fascination with pushing like on anything he sees
His kid got hold of his phone and pressed it
He's not liking his job at Shell and recently interviewed for a job at Novacyt
His wife recently applied for a job at Novacyt
He has shares in Novacyt

Let me know if I win Exmex please.

James, I follow you all the way up to:

Based upon the above , the company valuation should be at least £300 million NOW equating to 10 pence per share with all warrants issued.

£60m revenue per annum over next 3 years is not worth £300m today.

Your £60m revenue will probably equate to £24m PAT if we can utilise a good chunk of the tax incentive. 65% tax rate can not be simply dismissed.

£24m pat and a £300m mcap gives Angs a pe ratio of 12.5. we only have reserves currently for 4-5 years so there is no way that Angs is currently worth £300m.

The Pat will increase after year 3 due to the hedge restrictions but the SP will not incorporate that benefit just yet. It's too far away and there's a risk that gas prices fall well below £3/therm so the market won't be valueing Angs at £300m anytime soon.

I think best that can be hoped for in the short term is 4-6p for it to settle at the lower end when sentiment has left the building.

Obviously, GL can do several things between now and then to increase PAT going forward. The market won't give that any value though until more is known.

£1bn in the ground after operating costs and tax leaves about £400m. It will take 5 years at least to extract it so by applying a discount factor gives you more like £240m. That's at £4/therm. Considering 55m or so are hedged at 43p you may want to use £3.25/therm as an average.

That's makes the £1bn more like £880m. 40% PAT so £350m, apply discount factor so left with around £210m.

That's assuming that the therm rate stays around £4 over the next 5 years. From a personal level, I hope not. Consumers will be paying the government back for the rest of our lives.

So £210m is about 3 bags from here but if GL distributes it all has dividends or even most then without further investment we won't ever see 7p. Imo

GL mentioned pushing slightly upwards of 10mscf/d with a 2nd compressor and sidetrack so I'm thinking 12mscf/d.

That's call it 3.5m therms per month. 1.5m therms are hedged at 43p for next 3 years so that would be £700k per month. The remaining 2m therms would generate let's say on average £2.50/therm. So £5m + the £0.7m gives you £5.7m per month giving £68m revenue per annum.

I will go for a slightly more optimistic 40% net profit margin as I'm sure GL will be able to use some of the tax incentives to push down the tax bill so giving £27m PAT pa. That's for 3 years so £81m.

Assuming gas prices stay around £2.50 for years 4 and 5 and we take on no more hedges, we can assume 3.5m therms @ £2.50 gives £8.75m per month revenue giving £105m pa. Let's now assume even more tax relief so a net profit margin of 45% giving £47m PAT pa.

For each well or track extra that flows at 5mscf we can add £18m PAT pa.
1.5m therms per month @ £2.50 = £3.75m x 40% net profit = £1.5m PAT per month or £18m per annum.

So let's assume in 12 months we get a 2nd track up and running.

Year 1 PAT = £27m
Year 2 PAT = £45m
Year 3 PAT = £45m
Year 4 PAT = £65m
Year 5 PAT = £65m

After 5 years the 300m resources are pretty much exhausted.

A discount factor would have to be applied to those figures which at the moment would be a pretty large discount factor due to current high inflation rates.

I certainly see a 2-3 bagger here over the next few years but anything more would be dependent on what GL can do to grow this further beyond the 2 wells, 2 compressors and 2 side tracks. That, I wouldn't expect to be priced into the SP until more is known.

A fair assessment I feel but I'm sure it will be met with some very bias responses. Oh, and I am invested here but not interested in ramping this up to more than it is especially the 15p + predictions. £2 is just laughable.

DT, not following how £150m over 5 years translates into £2 per share.

Apologies, i must have misunderstood your angle.

I see Chris2 is loading up. Lol

Not sure your understanding is correct Shakey. The whole point is to incentivise exploration with over 100 new licenses. Serica are already accruing 100's of millions in tax so will have plenty of exploration costs to reduce the tax bill.

Maybe a new start up won't benefit but Serica are in a completely different boat.

There you are ShellDonald. The new name TopTramp suits you better if I must say. Have you figured out how cash flow forecasts work yet?

I'm proud to say I have only ever held one account on LSE. Never been banned or had intentions to troll boards so never needed a 2nd account, or 20th. Shame you can't say the same.

Chris, so you think the iron ore price may increase after Christmas. I believe a lot if not most analysts are predicting the same. That being said, if a company is producing iron ore for $80/t and selling it for more than $100/t, how is it you don't think Alien will be profitable?

Australia podcast Trident report out

https://www.tritondigital.com/resources/podcast-reports

Good to see the overall Australian podcast market growing.

Hats off to Novacyt. The Tata MD stand makes Novacyts look like Tony Starks lab.

Max, I'd be more than happy to get a 100% offtake done with AA at $120/t until Dec24

Takes away any uncertainty and locks in profits of $40/t over say 2mt so $80m. That would settle the market and provide enough cash to get a Jorc on Brockman, Vivash, MM and EH.