Member Info for DRB83

Probably for the best BV, you speak in riddles and I much prefer straight talkers.

Howey, Johnny is one of those trolls I was talking about. He'll be called something else next week. To be fair, he's had that account for longer than usual.

Thanks BV, if I want stimulating conversations in future I know where not to go.

I'll watch the video later this evening and we'll pick up our conversation tomorrow. Just thought it would be quicker if you just said it on here as seen as you were the one that brought it up but never mind.

Yep, it all needs signing off still and I'm sure they'll be more clarity to come but the uncertainty is killing the KIST SP. We could probably do with a little news re investments to contain the demise.

Unfortunately I don't have the time to revisit the 50 min video in search for a few seconds clip. If you have something to say just say it or just be quiet.

BV, what's part of the hedge is not set in stone?

Yeah Tom. 4.5m so 3m over the hedge. I've been using a more conservative £2.50/t so about £8m per month call it £100m pa all in. With costs and tax I recon we'd be left with a modest 40% so £40m PAT. With a pe of 5 would make us £200m or around 6-7p That doesn't include the other sites and the storage but they'll only start being significant a couple of years down the line imo

One step at a time for Angs and it will take a while to get the 2nd compressor and 2 side tracks on line. The SP won't reflect them until we get closer to implementation.

To the rampers -;Patience is a virtue and those shouting 10p by Xmas don't appear to have any. Maybe next Xmas with some further investment and continues high gas prices but hey 4 bags in 15 months is not deramping is it. Lol

Yanis, I agree that September and Q4 should be achievable on current flow rates. Very little to zero unhedged production. I do not agree that current 5.5 rates will be sufficient to meet the H2. The original hedge is for 10.5m therms in Q1&q2. Add on the suspected 2.2m deferral from Q3 then you have 12.7m therms required over 182 days. That's near enough 70000 therms per day. Using a conversion tool that's 6.8mscf/D. If we are to meet the H2 quota then we need the 2nd compressor at least.

GL pushed the Q3 deferral to H2 because he knew Q4 was too soon. That to me tells me he plans to have the 2nd compressor in during at the latest Q1.

With the 2nd compressor in place the hedge is easily exceeded and then and only then is when the cash flood doors open.

Kaeren, appreciate your support but just one thing. My rants have nothing to do with my trades. I believe 0% that anything I say on these boards will influence the SP.

My rants are usually due to boredom or trying to educate myself further.

Tony, I only trade stocks that I think will be higher in the next 12 months.

Tom, agree with the Aim sentiment point. Anything can happen. As for my 5 years resources, it's based on 2 wells, 2 compressors and 2 side tracks so upwards of 15mscf/D.

The condensate is small fry in my eyes so yes I ignore.

The other assets right now won't hold much value for Angs imo.

It's the 10p by Xmas crew I try to contain. Some people will float off if you don't keep them grounded.

Howey, agree I can have a tendency to be condescending. It's something I'm trying to work on but occasionally my frustration boils over and I speak my mind. I certainly have and only ever have had one user although some trolls persistently try calling me out for another user. Again comical but they'll never change.

Only interested in finding the truth with Angs and managing more realistic valuations.

Asher, ideally I want £1 next week but your just blowing numbers about without any substance. 10p is about £300m. Where is £300m coming from. We have reserves of 5 years so at best a pe of 5 means we need £60m a year profit. When will we see it? Please provide the workings instead of just saying nice and tidy round numbers. It doesn't help with peoples expectations and ultimately just leads to disappointment.

Some very insecure investors here. Can't bear to here the word hedge. It's real guys, it's happening. Whether you like it or not. I've been a holder for about a month or so. Did my research in advance like everyone should. My exit price is between 4-6p but I'll probably try trading the spikes and troughs. Does that make me any less informed than you guys. Clearly not.

4-6p is what I consider a fair value for 12 months time based on what we know today. Some here bashing me as a deramper because I don't agree with their 15p-£2 range is just comical.

Howey, I have a couple of friendly trolls on LSE who follow me round different boards so that's who your seeing me reply to. Generally speaking I only chat on boards I'm invested in or watching. I try to provide good factual info and will confront both rampers and derampers alike. I try to be very balanced and rational in my approach. Angs has a lot of rampers quoting rediculous SP forecasts supported by nothing more than fresh air. I challenge what they say because its generally wrong or massively over exaggerated.

Obviously because of this I am perceived to be negative despite targeting an 100-200% gain from here.

I am happy for any of you to pull me up where I'm wrong and correct me but all I receive is insults and name calling. I guess it's just the way it is.

Not sure if the rampers here are just uninformed, insecure about their investment here or just have another dark incentive for posting here.

What Mira said is factually correct. If 17p is the breakeven point then firstly is that gross profit breakeven? Before admin costs, finance costs, tax. I suspect it is. Secondly, 52m therms will be sold for an average of 43p so that's 26p profit not £3 as some are inaccurately stating. Once the sidetrack and 2nd compressor are in then fair enough but the hedge can't simply be dismissed like the rampers keep doing.

Maybe the rampers could try and point out where the so called derampers are wrong and then newby investors can make up their own mind, rather than just insult and say 'youre wrong'.

It seems to me a few investors here are getting too excited and forgetting to give value to the news that is coming through. Too often people see good news and think 10p without fully understanding what the news is actually worth and when the news will actually deliver realised results.

Yanis provided his take and a couple of us spotted a mistake. Then it's down to Yanis to come back and agree or disagree with our feedback and importantly show us why he disagrees.

Someone put earlier that we have £500+m in the ground. Yes but what about cost to extract, how long to extract, time value of money, huge tax bills. We're left with less than half that amount. 4-6p best case in next 12 months imo unless GL conducts other business. Still, not bad is it.

A EV of £500m. Not bad for a company generating £5m cash a day. By Xmas we'll have a negative EV. We won't though because the SP will move up.

Howey, yes I'm invested

Yanis. You say

"During these heavily hedged months, just the flow from the two wells (B2&A4) stabilising at 5.5 MMSCFD will pay the hedge and give Angus in excess of £1.2 mil in a month at 300p/therm."

You forgot to add the 2.2m therms from July and August then the average for Oct to June is about 2m therms per month. 5.5mscf/d won't cover that alone.

Without the 2nd compressor and sidetrack the profits Angs will make will be very modest in deed.

There is a chance that neither will be installed in 2022 meaning 2022 accounts will be very poor. Revenue of about £4m.

If they can get the sidetrack and compressor installed in Jan23, what do you think the revenue and profit will be in 2023?

I don't think anyone was disputing whether the first 2 wells made us money or not. It's more to do with how much. Rampers on here spouting 10p plus by Xmas. That's nearly £300m mcap for £700k per month revenue. It's not feasible is it. The real money is not in the 2 wells. It's in the 2nd compressor and the sidetrack so until we get more news on those then we'll probably bounce in the 2ps. I've not seen anyone on here say Angs is going bust, the so called derampers are stating 4-6p and the rampers stating 10p-£2. It's seems 99.9% of us agree that in the near term Angs will be worth more than it is today.

Rampers are pricing the next 3 years worth development in to today's SP where as the derampers seem to be pricing it a little more sensibly.

All very positive and yes it is becoming more clear that a placing will happen soon. It's not about 'if' to buy Bids it's more about 'when' to buy bids and how much the SP will be when the raise happens. It certainly seems to be heading in the right direction though.

Mr realist here again. Kist recently bought 34mscf/d completely unhedged for $125m. Investors here are thinking they will now pay $240m for 10mscf/d 50% hedged at 43p. I appreciate the gas price has increased but imo not enough to warrant paying 6 times more for Angs than they did GLA.

The hedging makes Angs look unattractive comparatively speaking.

Imo, the value in Angs is to just keep churning the gas and growing where possible.