Member Info for DRB83

WG, not sure what implications will arise from the sidetrack installation but my figures were based on just the 2nd compressor being installed. It should with the high forecast prices be more than enough to cover any opex/capex and finance obligations. Even if the sidetrack is delayed until H2 when we have a much stronger balance sheet then any possible break at SFB can be forecasted in and worked around. This isn't a 10p by Xmas job but it's certainly got the potential of 7p by end of Dec23. Imo

Apologies, my calcs were for 2mscf/D unhedged not 1.5.

That would be news to all of us if it was.

I here what your saying about the costs but many of those are spread out over 3 years. Running at 8mscf/D is likely to generate for argument's sake 1.5mscf/D unhedged. Hopefully we hit that in Jan so H1 would generate 364mscf of unhedged revenue. Using Angs 10,800 conversion that's almost 4m therms. At £4/t that's £16m before end of Jun23, most of which is pure profit as oil and condensate will cover overheads.

From Jul23, things get easier as the hedge drops down.

Even without the sidetrack the costs you mention are more than covered.

Agree WG. I believe Mercuria will be flexible with Angs but that flexibility will come with a cost. A cost we are unable to calculate. It's best to ignore the flexibility for the purpose of the base calculations but consider the flexibility as a worse case scenario.

The flexibility is only required if we don't get the 2nd compressor and GL seems pretty confident we'll have it by year end so my base calcs are based on what GL says but I always consider the what if risk of not getting the 2nd compressor on time.

Howey, I know some companies can have lengthy shutdowns for maintenance periods. Serico for example had 4 weeks. Angs is smaller so I wouldn't expect 4 but possibly 2. Yanis will probably be able to give a more accurate timescale. Definitely worth factoring in. I didn't as I believe the usual time for a shutdown is summer which is after Jun23 but worth considering for your full hedge approach. Tbh, the hedge looks pretty sound after H1

Howey, that's pretty spot on except the deferral of July and August into Q1 and Q2.

Agreed, that Mercuria would likely be happy to move some from H1 to H2 but it's not a guarantee and therefore we should calculate the numbers based on that not being an option. I know only too well to not assume something will definitely happen.

Not sure either about the 17p. Usually when I see other companies produce that figure it is a operating margin figure so not inclusive of Admin and finance charges etc. But that still needs to be confirmed by GL.

GL did state that the cash generated from oil and condensate will cover the overheads so it's only fair that if I ignore oil and gas condensate in future I ignore overheads in my calculations.

So no certainly not going to rip your work apart. I appreciate you taking the time to run the numbers yourself. It's just the deferred volumes from Jul/Aug you need to look at.

Hits, agreed and I think GL confirmed that 6 is the magic number (albeit a little lower than my calcs but I'll take him on his word) and that 6 will only be guaranteed with a 2nd compressor. The 2nd compressor will likely deliver 7-8 so hedge will be no issue from Jan23 onwards and unhedged cash flow will result in large favourable cashflows to cover any and all expenditures.

The market may want to wait for confirmation of the 2nd compressor being installed before we see a rise to high 3.5-4p but we'll have to wait and see.

Fair play Howey, my intention at the beginning was certainly to just ground a few over excited individuals by providing factual statements and reasonable opinion. I always back up my arguments and I did not expect the barrage of insults as I am bullish on Angs but just felt that what some were stating as fact was actually not. As the insults came thick and fast I allowed myself to be lowered to their level and the belittling commenced, which I'm not particularly proud of but I couldn't let it lie and I gave probably less than I took.

Anyhow, as far as I'm concerned it's settled and I'm happy to move on.

I do agree with HarChris that DA is in no rush to turn things around in terms of the SP. He'll just be plodding away working towards his strategy. No need to tell us what's going on. The SP could be 1p and it wouldn't effect anything going on in the business today. DA isn't bothered about the SP YET!!!!

As Wilson states, DA will almost certainly be bothered about his LTIP shares. Yes precious smeagle. He'll have a master plan. I would. It's just that we won't get to see it for quite a while. Frankly because he couldn't give two hoots of a whistle about us or the SP right now. Wish I knew what kind of a person he was 12 months ago but hey.

It was a positive interview Crannog. Hitting the high 5's. Trips and downtime controlled. 2nd compressor up and running by end of year. 2nd compressor will allow us to maximize both wells so 7-8mscf/D. This means by Jan23 we'll be selling potentially 300-600k therms unhedged at possibly £4 a pop. 17p breakeven point per therm so massive gross profit from Jan23. Side track will get us close to 12mscf so even more cash inflowing. What's not to like.

Not sure what negative comments you are referring to but yes I am invested.

Garwood, you share the same views as me on the hedge. It is covered to year end and the 2nd compressor will see us over the rest of the hedge. GL agrees with us. I'm happy to now move on.

Certainly not here to disrupt. Thanks to a few here I appreciate it may have come across like that but happy it's been settled now.

I'd say very fair and reasonable targets. I'm hoping debt free by end of Q1 has GL advised. I'll give him a month or 2 grace but either way it's positive.

Hoping they don't go for dividend personally. With such high tax rates I'd want GL to maximise the tax incentives on offer and grow the company which supports your point 3.

Once the markets settle I'm sure the buyers will be back.

Yanis, I think GL has settled our debate for us. I asked BV to step in earlier but I'll settle for GL. It would be good if you could acknowledge it at least.

Agree with your assessment and prediction Bendog

Muggins, the whole £7m isn't trade. From the 2021 accounts about £5m will be trade but yes it is still a high debtor days figure. Maybe most of the sales were made May/ June. If so then we can expect some big cash receipts in Jul/Aug

Howey, yes I complained about Yanis using annual cash flow as it doesn't provide enough info and he counted me by saying he uses daily. I took that as an obvious exaggeration to make up for his earlier comment of 'forget looking month by month, look annual'. There is absolutely no point in doing a daily cashflow. How can you. Does he know what day of the month wages are paid, suppliers are paid, tax is paid, finance charges are paid. No of course he doesn't so a daily cash forecast would be massive overkill. Anyone inexperienced enough to attempt a daily cash flow would soon know it was not necessary and quickly revert to a monthly/quarterly one so I called BS.

Howey, with all do respect I've been called all sorts on here so forgive me if my attitude is not always exemplary.

GL clearly talks about 6mscf being enough. GL has never said 5- 5.5 is enough The absolute max he expects to get from one compressor is 6 but even he is not confident he'll get that and certainly wouldn't expect to get it every day for 200+ days. 100% operational with no allowance for downtime or anything. I've never met any business leader who has forecast 100 % utilisation. What about maintenance? I had you down as more reasonable than that but your last post is just as bad as the rampers. Why aren't investors allowing even a little bit of prudence. Come on cut GL some slack.

Even GL stresses how important the 2nd compressor is to ensure 6 is guaranteed. He stressed that the sidetrack could be a dud but the main thing is the 2nd compressor is online by year end. If people are still arguing that one compressor is enough after listening to GL then all I can say is good luck, your going to need it.

Obviously I concentrate on the peak of the hedge because if you can deliver the peak you can deliver everything. That's just common sense. Once H1 is done then the rest of the hedge is easy. You always focus on the bottleneck.

Howey, not sure I follow. What's changed your view?

One more thing.

Good to here GL confirm the 2nd compressor in service by year end. Hopefully the talks of October will now cease as it would have just lead to more disappointment and perfect fodder for the trolls.

There should now be no confusion between what we are capable of and what the expectations are.

Great news all round.