Member Info for DRB83

Yeah, agreed that it's best to get these warrants churned sooner rather than later. When it's ready 3p should be tested again assuming it's all good news from GL.

Tom, as for the oil and condensate, it may be best to ring fence those revenues as they pay for the overheads as per GL.

Jimbo, desperate times call for desperate measures. The 32 chosen pubs I suspect will be the worst performing or at least most of them. Therefore better to sell them now than spend millions keeping them running just to sell them for less in 6 months time.

In hindsight Tim will probably admit that he should have sold them 12 months ago but isn't hindsight a wonderful thing.

As you say and I have said so previously, it will be extremely difficult for JDW to shift these pubs in the current market. I believe a lot of investors here hang on the hope that the properties are carrying a significantly reduced NBV on the asset register due to not being valued for such a long time. Unfortunately I think the current market conditions have stripped away any potential gain. This market is not a seller's market for pubs so Tim will firstly do well to sell them and secondly do well to recover their NBV.

Having said that, cash is clearly a concern and I'm pretty sure the loan covenants are up for expiry in a few days. A quick firesale of some cash burning properties isn't all that bad, even if it is just to keep the banks at bay for a few more months.

Ultimately, no business especially JDW can sustain the losses they are incurring whilst honouring huge debt covenants and rising costs.

Putting prices up isn't as simple as you say it is. If I'm used to paying £2 for something one day and the next day it's £2.50 I'm still going to be miffed. In this market regulars will for sure cut back and 'every now and againers' just won't full stop.

Tim is trying to find a balance but I don't envy his position.

GL to all who are here through choice and those that aren't

Clark, it seems a risky game trading JDW

Imo 4-5p will come off the back of the successful installation of the 2nd compressor. Unless GL has some M&A up his sleeves which could dramatically speed up the process. License wins, Who knows.

Donald, your post from Saturday

RE: Stay strong long term investors24 Sep 2022 10:59
Easy tool
Looking up??
The SP did what I said it would.
It’s much harder to read now, it could go 50p but I’m not sure it will, sub 70 is a defo for sure , maybe it recovers after that ?
I’m wary of the cash position, some of the guesstimates on here are just that.
Be prepared for a shock and a dip possibly down to the 50’s

70p was a defo on Saturday with the possibility of 50 somewhere in the near future. Monday comes and it shoots up to the 90's.

Mr Don Tramp responds "I knew that was going to happen, my trade was the last buy just before the first tick up and then I knew if it got to £1.01 it was going to fall all the way back to 70p so I sold. My trade was the last sale before the first tick down from 101.

We believe you Donald. You're like a wizard, let us all know AFTER you nail the next pump and dump won't you.

As for BH comment, I'm not sure what he means by Primer Design Unit being shut down. I hope not, apart from IT-IS that's all we have left.

Howey, yeah just didn't know if I was missing something that was expected. If we get some great news that isn't expected then great.

What are we hoping to learn from the Webinar next week?

Thanks to the research on here we have a pretty good handle on the flow rates 5-6

GL has already told us that the plan is to get the 2nd compressor online by end of year

It's too early for any substantial news on the sidetrack

We already expect the September hedge to have been exceeded

We already know what is required to meet the Q4 hedge.

Maybe an update on our debt position but I'm not expecting that. F

Possibly an update on the oil flow but hasn't he already told us 50 and 50.

Is the webinar more about confirming what we already know or are others i.e LTH's expecting something else?

If only it was that simple byp. Buy today, it drops 10% then the dead cat bounce comes and if your lucky it gets back to your buy in price. That's the problem with downtrend shares. I'm sure the trend will turn at some point.

Speak with Donald Tramp. She'll tell you exactly when to buy and sell. It will be too late of course by the time she divulges but at least you'll know when you should've bought and sold.

Today's gas price won't really benefit Angs too much. The January price will, hopefully anyway. The gas price is way too volatile and it's way too soon for the market to have any confidence of what the January prices will be. Just imo.

What's the point in having £11m in shares if you can't touch it. If his sell had anything to do with the business I'm sure he would have sold many more. There's a hundred reasons why a director may sell and I'm not concerned whilst it's only small quantities.

I seriously doubt he thought he would derisk 0.14% of his portfolio. It's like me taking a few quid out.

I guess the £66m tax payment wouldn't have been factored into any cash forecasts done on here so that has to be factored in.

Wolfy, the chairman you refer to just bought 50m shares and issued millions more to the bod at 60%-160% north of here. They obviously feel that the SP will be higher than it is now and they know more than anyone.

AA are interested in the iron ore and they'll know our breakeven point so will know $100/t is the minimum UFO want and they're still interested. No point in negotiating with us for less than $100 as the financials just won't work, but they're still interested so let's see what arrangements we can make. Maybe we use Brockman/Vivash as leverage to get a good hedge on our Iron.

Lots of possibilities available. I'd rather be in than out at this stage. Each to their own.

AA is likely to end this argument very soon. If they want our iron ore, and all of it and want to hedge it at $100/t then I don't really care what the global demand for iron ore turns out to be. All recessions come to an end and usually the stimulus is infrastructure that iron ore is a huge part. China will fix it's property market, Russia will accept defeat and the huge Ukrainian rebuild will commence.

All we need for now is a 3 year deal on our DSO iron ore @ $100.

The guys got 545m shares. Selling 750k or 0.14% of his holding as absolutely nothing to do with a lack of belief in the company.

In all fairness, unless you're an author or an English teacher I don't think most people would have noticed.

Thanks Ocelot. How do we know which month contract we a fulfilling. It would be nice to be supplying into the Jan23 contracts but I've not heard anything from GL on this so was just assuming we were feeding the current market.

There's clearly risks to the iron ore demand coming out of China. That can not be ignored however, there is a valid argument that the large majority of iron ore is significantly sub standard to what we possess. The likes of Rio and AA may be looking for deposits of 62%+ to help make their grade more appealing Vs the competition. This can not be simply overlooked. China are pushing the green future so it would go against all that if they started buying in lower grade iron ore to save on costs Vs higher grade. Demand may drop but imo it will impact <40% first, the <50%, then <60% and with any luck won't effect demand on >60% too much as not only will China want it direct but the big boys Rio and AA will want it too.

Remember, we only need a hedge of $100/t to generate $25m post tax profits pa for the next 3 years. That will bring a significant step change to the UFO SP and give us time and security to unlock the other 4 company making assets. Time and security are not luxeries you often see on AIM.

I'm seeing £2.70 ish. Where are you getting £4.20 from. Can you post a link please.

Expectations should be set at no more than 6 and probably a little less for the average of the one compressor. The average for Q4 is 5.24 so if we can stabilise 5.5+ then great we'll be generating some unhedged funds which are currently ranging between 4-6 times more valuable than the hedge.

By all means hope for 6+ but in terms of managing expectations 5.5 should be the benchmark imo.

Baits, You may have a point regarding new investors. I was drawn here off the back of SFB. This is where the near term value sits and it's the key to unlocking the other projects imv. With the 2nd compressor in place then any fears around cashflow and placings will be put to bed as that alone could generate £40m profit pa. If the sidetrack comes good then again even more profit. Just a case of being patient here and hoping all goes well with the plans.