Member Info for DRB83

Kaeren, not a clue I'm afraid. I think the variables are too many to even try and fathom that one. Placings aren't necessarily bad and the CFO should be able to negotiate favourable terms given we're likely to be generating substantial profits in the near future. Having said that, you'd think a short term loan would be an option also.

That's fair enough Howey. The term waffle can be easily misinterpreted in this instance.

Wow, a lot of accusations here with absolutely no substance says more about you than it does me. I may make honest mistakes but I certainly don't lie so if you have something to say re Ncyt and Boom then let's go over their and thrash it out.

As for Kist. Yes I missed the $45m but it's hardly lieing and doesn't actually change my overall point which was that the amount they paid for 34mscf/D was significantly less than what some were proposing they should pay for Angs.

Gallder, you have just made a similar mistake. The 34mscf/D figure I quoted was the 20%. 6000boe/D. Look it up. Does that make you are liar. I don't think so, it was just a mistake which I have corrected. Not quite sure you needed to jump in with the personal insults and defamation.

A liar? A strange accusation to make. About what?

Yes, but is that how Angs and Merc do it. What if they do it by individual month. Your method assumes any over hedge production in September is spread backwards across Jul/Aug and given back to Merc. Is this really the case? I believe each month is separate and any over production in September would be taken as benefit in September by Angs. Not used to payback the liability. The liability isn't due for another few months and I'm sure Angs won't just give them the cash in advance of the agreed H1 dates.

Not sure why the name calling just because I don't agree with your calculations. No one knows the intricacies of the hedge so why get so touchy over £550k. £9m is a pretty fair estimation and has been calculated a couple of times by a few people on here to be there and there abouts.

Ok Garwood. If your approach to investing is just about looking at the positives then go for it and good luck with that.

Risks do tend to be negative.

Howey, it's unfair to call it waffle about the 10 days. GL is highlighting a risk to us that we shouldn't just skirt over. The reserves are partly depleted which can cause a lack of pressure when spudding. There's a coal seem directly above the drill that is prone to collapsing and causing huge problems (apparently this has happened in the past). A number of things can happen that can result in this sidetrack being delayed by at least 10 days. If that happens then knock, knock, a placing could very well happen. Maybe a loan of some kind. Who knows? It's then down to the CFO to ensure we get the best placing price. It's certainly not waffle but let's hope that things go smoothly and come January we're flowing 11-12mscf through them pipes. This risk is one of the reasons why we'll struggle to get over 3.5p before December imo. Just have to be patient and hope for the best.

Gallder, appreciate the workings but there's several assumptions you're making. Which is fine but you're not able to say for definite that what Angus have on their balance sheet is what you have calculated. I'm happy to stick with £9m and wait for the actual figures from Angs.

What period is your average price taken over?
Is this the same as Mercuria and Angs?
GL said they deferred just Jul/Aug so anything over the hedge in September would be cash to Angs where as your calculation is treating the figures as a quarterly block. This is not how I believe it is treated my Angs.

I'm not saying you are definitely wrong, I'm saying you can't claim to be definitely right especially when you are correcting my £9m EST down by only £550k.

Gallder, £9m is a ballpark figure. It's impossible for anyone on here to know for certain what the liability is exactly so trying to be precise with £8.45m is fruitless.

The most part of that £3.3m you refer to went straight to Mercuria. Very little will have been put towards the £9m liability. Especially as there was a £1.5m payment due on the loan. It's quite clear that we need at least the 2nd compressor to ensure we can start paying down the liability to avoid any future awkward expensive conversations about deferrals.

Let's also remember that the recent funding Angs did, did not factor in missing the Jul/Aug hedge. The funding was taken up with the 2nd compressor, sidetrack and working capital amongst other things. The July/Aug liability will need to be funded from unhedged revenue and not just the little bit we'll get from the one compressor.

Anyone else thinking the below date should be 2023, not 2022?

The Company also expressed its expectation that the Loan Facility and contingent payments to Forum Energy would be satisfied in full by Q3 2022.

Agree with that SL

SL, the debate was about the H1 2023 hedge commitments. This is the bottleneck period of the hedge.

Q4 hedge should be met comfortably and yes the small amount of unhedged revenue will help pay down the debt but it's no where near enough to pay off the £9m hedge liability by the time the due date comes. GL is basically saying we need the compressor/sidetrack to settle the hedge by Jun23.

This was always very obvious to me and a few others on here but the bulls didn't like it.

BF, you've certainly misunderstood the sidetrack comments. It was literally a few days ago GL confirmed 20th October for spudding of sidetrack + 50 days for completion. Clearly when he is saying Q2/3 2023 he is referring to a completely different sidetrack. This is good news because I believe more sidetracks will increase the reserves as well as the flow rate whilst also helping to reduce our effective tax rate. All good but not expecting any major SP move off the back of this just yet.

It's not just as simple as saying there is £900m worth of gas in the ground.

How long will it take to get this gas out?
What fixed costs will be incurred over that time?
Is £3/therm a fair average over the time frame?
52m therms are hedged at 43p, this has to be factored in
There is a variable cost to get the gas out. 17p/therm I believe
Tax rate is currently 65% so this will be a huge cost over the life of the reserves.

Government policies, world events and macro economics can change next week never mind within the next 5-7 years and with this comes risk.

11p is £330m mcap once all warrants are exercised. Even with the 2nd compressor and sidetrack Angs is not worth £330m.

The market knows this. The market will want to see:

How much of the tax incentive can Angs use or are most of our profits simply going to go to the tax man. We don't know this yet.

Gas prices are volatile so there is huge risk here. £3 seems high, even GL using £2.

Plans around the other assets. When will they be up and running? What costs will be incurred? Are they feasible? What revenue will they generate? The big boys won't be prepared to take a punt today on something so risky that won't be realised for years down the line.

This is why we are 2p now. Confirmation of 2nd compressor and sidetrack then 4-6p range. 2nd sidetrack, then depends on what reserves are opened up but 11p is so far down the road it's not worth mentioning now imo.

I believe the comments made in the previous video interviews referred to being debt free by end of Q1 but I may be wrong.

Either way, a lot of noise was being made on here a few weeks back that 5mscf/D would be sufficient to meet the hedge. A few on here including myself and HITS laid out the numbers supporting that a 2nd compressor was required. GL is here saying that the £9m liability will be paid off by end of June only if we have the 2nd compressor operational

Still a great achievement and I expect the SP to go north from here over the next few months but it's important to keep expectations realistic and even prudent and ignore all the Uber rampy predictions that are often posted on here. DYOR as always.

I don't believe GL is including the £9m liability in his 'meeting the hedge' statement. I also believe his statement regarding being debt free by Q1 is based on at least the 2nd compressor being installed.

Some of the warrants will result in an immediate bag so if you can turn £10k into a guaranteed £20k with a few clicks then some people will rather do that than wait 2-3 months for a hopeful £25-30k. A bird in the hand and all that. There's a million reasons why some will sell and most have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business.

10p? The fully diluted mcap would be closer to £300m. What calculations are you doing to justify £300m in 3 months time.

Max, I recall the moment well. The hysteria at the time was related to a much publicised short squeeze on silver so I suspect excitement got the better of everyone. It wasn't a real move on silver, clearly as it's since dipped to $17. There is certainly a connection between UFO and silver but UFO doesn't track silvers daily movements so today's gain for UFO is unrelated imo.

It's good to see but I won't be reading anything into this daily gain just yet. Maybe 3 or 4 more days like this and it may mean something. Also, i do believe there is a slight connection between silver and UFO but I don't believe that short sharp solitary daily movements have any baring on the UFO SP whatsoever. It's too soon I think. We must be 18 months minimum away from getting any silver out of the ground. Looking forward to the break out of $30 and seeing what the new floor will be. Then I'll get excited

Phase 4 drilling started in June. It's now October so I'd be very disappointed not to get results this week or next at the latest.