Member Info for DRB83

Yep, more ducks lining up. Still more potentially great news to come this month. Patience is a virtue as they say.

Great news. Lots more news to come. Clearly UFO still confident in the iron ore projects.

I did try several times to explain that the exclusive rights started immediately, the 60 days starts when the finance model has been issued. We are still awaiting the finance model as far as I'm concerned. The model would certainly warrant a RNS. It will come but I did try to manage expectations but a few on here misinterpreted the original RNS which now leads to disappointment.

Look out for the 2 days where the gas flow will be around 0.07. That will be our indication of how things are potentially progressing.

Considering the macros I'm more than happy that we've come through still profitable and an increase in cash position to $8m. That's great news. Already $16-17m revenue contracted for Q4 so expect another profitable quarter. Just needed to batten down the hatches during this volatile market and keep doing the day to day basics. The bod appear to be doing a great job. The market will settle eventually and when it does they'll be a very healthy climb back to new highs. Patience required in buckets.

Anyone got any plausible explanations as to why we haven't solidified the 90% Hammersley deal yet? Any reason for delaying it?

My understanding is that buying a company wouldn't qualify as capital expenditure and therefore couldn't be used to reduce tax. What we could do however is buy a company who need a load of money spending on it which would go down as capex and therefore help reduce our tax bill.

100% there is risk here and yes if for whatever reason AA back out then of course the SP will drop to 0.3's. It will depend on why AA drop out of course but nothing much has changed since they signed the exclusivity agreement. Iron ore holding steady at $100 ish. Some forecasting $120+ some $90-. Who knows but if AA want our ore and they clearly do then doing a deal now at say $100 sounds like a good idea to me.

It may be a yes or no decision but I don't think it's a 50/50. More like a 80/20. 80% chance that SP goes to 1p, 20% it goes to 0.3. I'm strapped in.

We'll know when we know.

Revenue from gas sales? We know how much we're producing, we sell it all. We're not sure on what price we're getting but it's going to be at least £1.50/t. Break even cost is 17p. Hedge is 43p. You've got everything you need to work out a good estimate.

First quarterly figures out in January. About 10-11 weeks. As owd Gary Barlow sez 'just have a little patience'

If you think come January that those production figures are going to be 7mscf+ then isn't 1.8 a great opportunity?

Clearly the current market conditions plus a huge amount of warrant churn has held this back but patience will be rewarded here imo.

Gas production volume is going up
Gas prices are forecast to go up

That'll do for me for now

We'll have to agree to disagree on this WG. I believe the conversion price is 1p, not 0.65. Therefore the only 2 conversion options are 1p and 1.3p.

It does quite clearly state that Knowe have been able to convert since Jul22. That will be at 1p.

What I don't understand is what are they waiting for. Convert today and sell and get £2.8m cash. Surely they haven't converted and we're unaware.

WG, I actually think I have miss read it. If they convert today they'll get 140m shares (currently worth £2.8m), but they forego their 4% interest earnings at £5k per month.

If Angs pay it back then Knowe will get £1.4m cash but have to use that to exercise the warrants at 1.3p which would only get them 107m shares (currently worth £2.1m).

The 1p conversion is obviously best for Knowe in this scenario so they must be pretty sure that Angs aren't going to be settling in cash anytime soon. Otherwise, why are they not converting now? Are they holding out for another extension and more shares. Who knows.

WG, from the Oct21 RNS

The Note, which was otherwise convertible at 1p per ordinary share from 17 February 2022, will now
only be convertible at the earliest of 17 July 2022 representing a six month extension.

So they can convert right now.

I think I was not clear. If the £800k placing price of 0.65 came into effect then the terms woul be "the lower of a) 1p or b) 0.65p. Therefore, 1p would no longer be on the table. As Angs have only yesterday stated 1p as the conversion rate then this suggests that all placings since the agreement was made have had the permission of Knowe.

If the 0.65 placing was only a couple of weeks later then I'm sure Angs must have obtained prior approval from Knowe otherwise what would be the point in putting in the a or b. They would have already known at that point that it was going to be b.

From same RNS:
Additionally
the Company retains the right to repay the Note at any time with the additional grant of warrants at
1.3p per share as detailed in the RNS of 20 April 2020.

So when Angs settle in cash, Knowe will receive £1.4m cash and 107m shares (currently worth £2.1m). This is why they've not chosen to convert imo. They'll let the extension expire and force Angs to settle with cash. If they agree to extend again then Angs will probably have to give them another 11.2m shares like last time. That's £224k additional annual interest on a £1.4m loan. That's 16% effective interest rate plus the shares will most likely be worth triple what they are today in another 12 months. Knowe are sitting pretty comfortable imo but it's really no skin of Angs nose.

Knowe will most likely sell their warrants as soon as they exercise imo. Possibly April 23.

Tygra

Agree that dilution is dilution but it's the perception of what dilution means that is misleading imo. Your comment below highlights this.

It could have a market capitalisation of £10 billion with 'assets' all over the globe but if it was arrived at via dilution the first shareholders who invested would be the worst affected.

I don't agree. If the money from a £10m placing for example is put to good use and adds say £2m pa to the bottom line. On a 10pe that £10m placing has just improved the mcap of the business by £20m.

If I had 100,000 shares at 1p before the placing so £1000 and the mcap was say £50m (5bn shares) then following a £10m placing at 1p (1bn shares and 20% dilution) where the funds have been put to good use then I now own 100,000 shares (of 6bn shares) in a £70m mcap company. SP would now be 1.17p and my 100,000 shares worth £1,170. So despite a 20% dilution I am 17% up.

Placings and dilution isn't always bad. It just depends if management can use the money to add value.

As for production figures. GL has disclosed we will get quarterly figures. This is great and probably amongst the best you can expect on AIM. Lots of companies including the big boys don't reveal their sales monthly. I'm happy with quarterly. In addition, probably best that GL doesn't disclose the figures too early as until they settle down and become more consistent then the figures could be misleading.

Mira, the price was 0.875 when that post was made.

WG, I believe Knowe have been able to convert since July 2022 according to the Oct21 RNS. Knowe get a better deal if they wait and force Angs to settle with cash.

With regards to the exercise price. Your 2nd post suggests to me that Angs did have permission for that raise. Had they not then 1p would no longer be an option. The terms were 'the lower of a or b'. If Angs did have permission then 0.65 would be the known conversion price. Angs specifically state 1p with no mention of option b so I am now happy to assume that option a is now solidified.

RT, it's rampers like you that cause the so called derampers to come out if for nothing more just to correct your BS statements like the one below.

"If we completely binned the sidetrack and 2nd compressor we're still in the same position as today (albeit with a massive increase of funds for other projects))"

Hickster, I suspect the uncertainty and confusion around the WFT is holding the buyers back. Maybe the market wants to see if all our profits are going to the tax man or are we going to reinvest them back into the top line. It sure would be good to get some indication from the bod

WG, I can only assume Angs got permission as the 1p option was the only one stated in the extension RNS.

Bridge, Let's turn it the other way. Why make a statement saying you support the business and then sell a cart load of shares?

Ocelot's answer makes way more sense.

NQM, that's great. Thanks

So basically KIST are rejigging the equity pots to enable and prepare for the very likely event of paying dividends.

Sounds good to me.