Member Info for DRB83

come on guys, too much speculating here. we don't know enough to try and work out what windfield will get for their 10%. it certainly won't be £30m as some are suggesting.

a decision to mine was always going to send the value 10 fold so for alien to say yes we'll give you half of all of that just for your 10%. if i recall, wasn't the previous deal before it was renegotiated worth about £1m to windfield. to renegotiate that up to £30m is one hell of a negotiation.

too many uncertainties in the wording.

how is the value of the project measured. npv10, npv5

what discounting factor is used

what exchange rate

how is the uplift calculated. what is the start point

what is the definition of 'the projects'. thought han**** was just one project.

what costs will be incurred by alien that will need to be deducted from the uplift calculation.

what costs can be included. there's 28m capex costs which reduce any consideration due to windfield massively

from when are the costs calculated. we've spent several million just exploring and keeping the lights on.

this will be all clear in a 40 page contract signed by both parties and which we'll never get to see. we've seen a handful of sentences from that contract.

hh, i don't have visibility of the terms of the one off payment with me now but basing the uplift on han**** as a whole doesn't make sense. we already own 90% so why would we give winfield 50% uplift in what is already ours. it makes more sense to give him the 50% uplift in his 10%, which would be significantly less than what you think.

as always, we are never privvy to all the detail on these kinds of deals but i suspect there will be some caveats or conditions that cap the amount ufo would be required to pay. they certainly won't be paying £30m to windfield for 10%.

Yes, I think it's safe to say that year 2 will generate more profits than year 1 and year 3 more than 2. All things being equal with commodity price and supply costs of course. Efficiency improvements alone will be huge. These have not been factored into these initial costs which are likely to be highly conservative imo.

HH

From the end:

- The Development Study is comprised of limited study elements at typical Pre-Feasibility Study level (e.g. resource estimates and mining inventory), and the majority of elements at Feasibility Study level (e.g. cost estimates, approvals, offtake, financial modelling etc).

'Majority of' suggests that something's are missing. I suspect it's largely the finance modelling as they won't know what that looks like yet. They said the next step was to:

Progress funding discussions, including self-development, possible joint venture options and other funding arrangements

This clearly shows they have not yet landed on what financing looks like so I suspect financing costs are excluded from the analysis. Just imo

Also, it's easy to see why Fenix bought up most of their logistics costs. I am surprised just how much of the total cost is made up by logistics. What's to say UFO don't go the same route as Fenix and start buying up the supply chain.

With Brockman and Vivash then it's possible that UFO could be here for 20 years + so buying up the supply chain early on will have huge benefits.

we must also consider the huge uplift in the commercials when 10mt of ore is mined over 2 shifts.

it is highly likely there is 15m+ ore in han**** and if the ore price spikes again then we have the flexibility to turn up the output by putting on 2-3 shifts. at that point han**** becomes an unbelievable cash cow.

by the time we have exhausted han****, brockman and vivash will likely be well into production.

there's no certainty with any of this but plenty of news to come. aisc of 80-85 is good for now. finance probably not included as it will likely be short term finance anyway. as long as the ore price stays above 110 then we'll be fine imo

Smiler, they did communicate that if the funding partner requires a DFS then they'll do one. Pretty sure I read that

HH if The 10% Winfield own ends up to be worth 10's of millions, doesn't that value our 90% in the 100's of millions?

A placing was always an option and if money was due to round out in Q1 24 then I suspect the placing talks have been underway a while. Not sure on the rules around secrecy but what's to stop our main investors dumping now to buy back in again at 0.2p.

I'm pretty comfortable with the long term here. We have a few more hurdles to jump but a few pretty big ones have already been checked off. It is more likely than not imo that we will be producing in 2025. At that point, the naysayers will have left for their next mission and we'll look back on these times as 'emotional'.

If or when a placing comes then imo it will be small, maybe as small as 10-15% dilution.

Ok. Final purchase made for 2023. I'll be honest, Chris2 made me nervous a few weeks back so I missed out on some good gains over the recent rise. Not sure why he insists on getting involved if he's not a shareholder.

Anyhow, seatbelts now fastened and ready for whatever comes. GLA

Thought it was tomorrow?

Well said birdies

Tacet, so if I understand correctly, you predicted at 0.2p that the SP may go up but there's a good chance it may go down. Now we have reached 0.33 you think the SP will either go up more but it could also go down again. Over a long enough period the outcomes are ultimately binary so clearly such a vague prediction will 100% of the time be correct one way or the other. Are you able to make a more specific prediction? Also why do you only see the point in posting when the SP is falling. Some may see that as just scare mongering.

Just wondered where the TA expert is. Thought he would be all over UFO now given we have just closed above the 200da, which I am told is a very positive sign. Also, if we continue this trajectory in a couple of weeks we'll have a golden cross on our hands. I'm no expert at all but I have seen enough chartist comments to know those 2 things bode well. Apparently.

Where is what's his name.

It's a shame Chris2 is missing all the good action too. He always seems to be busy on green days. I feel for him as the only chance he gets to post is on red days. Usually really red days. I'm sure one day it'll work out for him.

It's less about the value and more about the timing for me. Let's see what the other directors do. That will confirm my suspicions even more for me.

I'm assuming she sees 0.23p to be lower than any potential future placing price. With all the potential milestones just around the corner then I'd have to agree. Adds to my confidence levels here.

We get the massive derisking news first followed by a placing much higher than 0.2p. A placing isn't necessarily a bad thing. The timing of it maybe. Some hope the placing comes first some and I hope it comes 2nd. No one knows. That's why this investment is deemed high risk high reward. You're either in and commenting on this board or you're out and commenting on this board (which is sad imo). Nothing we can do about that. Just ignore.

C2

You seem to find it remarkable that you tossed a coin and guessed right.

Probably more than half shares have dropped massively in the last year or two

You were following JP Morgan's forecast when you were predicting the iron ore price so you can't really take much credit for that.

Probably half of companies on AIM have changed directors in the last 24 months

You like to fill this board with speel about how super your foresight is when in reality your pretty basic just like the rest of us.

C2. I'm not sure you have made many specific predictions. I do recall you saying that iron ore would drop below $80 rendering UFO's iron ore operations uneconomical. Whilst it did drop close it has since recovered and steadied around $120 so you were right and then you were wrong.

That's the case with most of your predictions. You predict UFO will fail I presume based on an uneconomical IO price or a rejected license. The jury is still out on this so you can't claim a victory just yet. Some may say it is just as likely that events proceed as planned and we start digging churning loads of profit every year. In this scenario your prediction concludes as wrong and the rest of us investors right.

So far the delays have caused the SP to drop but delays and failure can be 2 completely different things. I guess this debate will conclude very soon.

CB. Why the talk of 9b shares being fatal. Couldn't we just do a 100 to 1 consolidation.

C2. On one hand you keep highlighting that no one knows if anything good will happen whilst implying you know that everything bad will happen. Why should people listen to you. That's a rhetorical question.