Member Info for DRB83

Your comment was just misleading Asher, as I said before GL specifically states September and Q4 hedge will be met by current run rate. You didn't specify a date so it can easily be implied as the full 3 years. That's not what GL said. He was careful as he should be to specify a date range. So should you.

That's a shame BV. You could have helped clear it up. I'm happy for people to disagree. Show me why you disagree. Show me where I'm going wrong. It's strange no one can.

I was hoping as a balanced viewer you would do the calculation yourself and provide it on here so once and for all we can put this to bed and move on. I'm happy for anyone to attempt if they can please. If you show me to be wrong then I'll apologize and not mention the matter again. If I'm right then let's just stop stating that "5.5mscf is more than enough to meet the hedge"

Sound like a deal?

Noel, I don't think I follow. Can you expand please

I don't filter anyone, derampers and rampers alike I meet with hard facts to dispel their theories. That way everyone who is interested can see them for what they are. BF, has some valid points but some I'm not sure on so rather than resort to abuse and insults I explore their reasoning by asking valid questions and awaiting their response.

BV, as a balanced viewer maybe you could provide the clear answer as to whether the H1 hedge requirements can be met with a stable 5.5mscf flow rate. I've tried, I've been quite detailed with my numbers and only used documents provided by Angs.

I've asked Yanis but he's gone quiet.

The ramp crew won't listen to me but I think they will to you and looking at some comments from some users the inaccurate information being shared is being taken as gospel which isn't right.

What makes you think they can't afford the payment due this month. I did a quick cash rec and was pretty comfortable with it.

Very well put Phil. It's strange how they keep brushing over the matter. I'm more than happy to hold my hand up if I'm wrong but maths is maths

Asher, unlike you GL cared to specify a date. You copied a statement showing GL stating September but there's also a statement where GL states Q4 will be met. I've said repeatedly that I'm happy with these statements. H1 however averages 6.2-6.5 as I have previously calculated in detail for you using formulas and numbers Angs use themselves. If you just meant a certain part of the hedge is met then you should really specify which part as the hedge is 3 years long and peaks in H123.

MayQueen, can you confirm where the 10mscf capacity comes from. I thought GL said 5.

If the revised hedge for H1 is 195mmscf per month, well that's 6.29mmscf/D no matter what method you use.

From the document Yanis provided it shows ave monthly requirement for H1 is 160.96mmscf. The same document shows that the daily rate to achieve this is 5.19 on 31 day months and 5.37 on 30 day months. It's simply the monthly total divided by the number of days in the month.

Now add the deferred amount on which as you calculated is 34.49. You get 160.96 + 34.49 = 195.45.
195.45/31 = 6.3
195.45/30 = 6.5

Not sure why a few on here are intentionally spreading misinformation but I'm sure it's now becoming obvious to most who to watch out for on this BB.

We'll cover the hedge with the help of a 2nd compressor which in a few days we'll hopefully get confirmation that it will be installed this year. If so, this we have no problems and we'll be churning unhedged gas. The reality is really great news, why the ramp crew have to go one step beyond to look for false super duper news is beyond me. Real great news is just fine.

Happy you've seen the light Survivor.

Yanis, I'm not sure what price has to do with the calculation. We don't need to include price.

If the revised hedge for H1 is 195mmscf per month, well that's 6.29mmscf/D no matter what method you use. That's my calculation and it was yours yesterday so what's changed.

From the document you provided it shows ave monthly requirement for H1 is 160.96mmscf. The same document shows that the daily rate to achieve this is 5.19 on 31 day months and 5.37 on 30 day months. It's simply the monthly total divided by the number of days in the month.

Now add the deferred amount on which as you calculated is 34.49. You get 160.96 + 34.49 = 195.45.
195.45/31 = 6.3
195.45/30 = 6.5

These are numbers you provided, this is the method you provided. If you pushed a wrong button when calculating then just be honest and come clean. You've posted many times saying we're ok with 5.5mmscf/D. We'll deliver the hedge worse case. Don't worry, we'll make loads of money at 5.5mmscf/D.

Clearly you're own calculation proves you wrong. Own it or prove me wrong.

I'm not trying to deramp here, I'm trying to get to the truth so we can all be on the same page.

Yanis, below is what you posted a day or so ago:

Yes, there is the deferred July/August hedged amounts. But these are deferred to Q1/Q2 next year.

The deferred amount equals to an additional 34.49 MMSCFD per month (103.47/3). This takes the hedge amount for Q1/Q2 next year to 195.45 MMSCFD per month.

you state 195.45mscf per month.
31 days per month
= 6.29mscf/D.

You then go on to say 5.5mscf will cover this requirement.

Help me make sense of what your saying. I'm more than happy to agree with you but I keep running the numbers and getting a different answer to you.

I'd argue Smiller that those with the fixed assets already purchased and in place will have an extraction cost of <$20. They can just keep churning as the assets have probably already paid for themselves. New companies opting for the leasing/subcontractor method will have lower capex but higher opex spend so a very different break even point. We just need a hedge above $100 and we'll be great.

One other thing to mention is the quality of our product. The first products to feel the impact in reduced demand will probably be the low grade stuff. Is that why AA are interested? We don't know but I'd rather have >60% than <60%.

There's the other side of the coin also.

The one where China stops messing about with lockdowns
Where China sort their property market out
Where the war in Ukraine ends and the rebuild begins
Where countries all over the world bounce back from recessions and pump money into infrastructure

Who knows how it will play out but all we need is enough uncertainty for AA to decide to lock into a 3 year hedge for 100% at $100.

I respect your view Chris and we all know what would happen if AA pulled out but what would happen if they locked in for 3 years at $100.

This is AIM, this is mining. There's risks. It will go one way or the other or fall somewhere in the middle.

Ok BV. I'm prepared to draw a line in the sand and move on.

BV, I've only spoken facts and been real here with expectations. 6-7p in 12-18 months depending on what GL can do with the cash. Seems balanced to me. Yet out of everyone you've taken the most offence to me trying to keep the BB grounded.

Q. Why would a balanced viewer take offence to a balanced view.
A. Because they're not a balanced viewer, they are a ramper.

If you're not a ramper then you're an emotional investor who has got crazily overexcited with the recent news and now you can't contain it. Either way, you need grounding.

BV if the content of your book is worth reading then don't portray yourself as a clueless ramper who speaks before engaging brain. Just some friendly advice.

Peter, just read the bottom of your post.

£6.93 average therm price. That's bullish

Angs should generate £8m from the hedge yes.
At 17p cost that's £3m cost. They'll be some tax also but as I'm expecting the 2nd compressor online come Jan23 I'm not expecting there to be an issue with cashflow.

BV, yet again. Doesn't matter what your ramp crew say you'll agree and support it. The worst kind of investor in my book. You don't appear to have a clue.