Member Info for DRB83

Profits it $1.45bn in 6 months averaging 67kboe/D
Serica ave 26kboe/d in H1 so in 6 months puts a like for like profit at $560m. Not bad.

Kist at 12kboe/d would be $260m (they reported slightly less at €232m)

Anywhere around $500m for Serica will be a awesome result. H2 likely to be double at least the way things are going.

$1.5bn pre tax profits.
Serica EV <$600m
Market sentiment= growing
Macro economics = favourable
Industry = UK government driving growth
M&A = opportunities aplenty
Tax = extremely high but opportunity to offset via investment
Commodity prices = extremely high and volatile and forecast to increase over winter. Russia won't be conceding anytime soon. Huge supply issues for UK currently and fracking and other alternatives will take years to bridge the gap.

If I missed anything I'm sure you can add.

PUTUP, they make margin in the capex cost oil. Our cost is capitalised and depreciated over 5-10 whatever years with the cash reimbursed almost immediately. Cost oil has little cash flow impact long term but margin wise we do make one.

Also, re your first post. Does your forecast receipt not include a recovery from the CRP? As we know the net is all cash inflow.

It is common for a SP to eventually fall to the placing price but a 5% placing is very small and therefore doesn't mean we'll hit it. Plenty of news still to come.

Rod review (must be soon)
Investor presentation
Han**** results
Han**** finance model
Han**** update on progress (contractors, road, approvals)
EH update
Munni Munni update

Plenty to keep this interesting. Even Iron ore has had a couple of blue days.

5% warrant sellers
95% sell on newsers.

I'll also add that the market values potential and sentiment. Angs with the sidetrack has plenty of potential and being in the O&G sector clearly has lots of favourable sentiment so there's no reason why the SP can't bust through that 3p zone well before a mention of the sidetrack.

Ill

55k therms per day @ 30p profit (43p - 13p cost) = c £500k per month. Admin charges are quite low currently so without a sidetrack your looking at £300k per month pre tax profit. No tax charges initially as will be offset with prior losses. So annualised £300k x 12 = £3.6m profit Vs a mcap of £55m ish. It's quite high Vs others in the industry. KIST is completely unhedged and probably generating it's mcap in annual pre tax profits. Serica likewise. There's others.

If the sidetrack can double production then all of it will be pretty much unhedged so that would be 55k therms x £4 x 30 days giving £6m profit per month. That's basically 1 month of profit from the sidetrack equating to a full year profit from the current wells Inc FY admin charges.

It's a great step forward today for Angs
One which had to be taken but the value is in what's to come next. Small steps

Looks like SP didn't go up like the 3.5m buyer expected to he cancelled. I'm going to request my trades in the 0.8's be cancelled so expect them to show up soon.

6 trading days until 27th Sept. Did I fall a sleep and miss a couple of week. Lol

The reason why most millionaires become millionaires is because they are careful with their money. At least initially. You certainly don't become a millionaire by just throwing £000's around willy nilly. I'm pretty sure Rod bought in because he expects his £250k to be worth a few million in the future.

Just had word through from DA personally and he was so apologetic. Apparently JW had told him that he spent some of the £100m in taking Ncyt private. DA was therefore under the impression that he hadn't any shareholders to communicate with. DA says not to worry, this kind of thing happens all the time and the miscommunication has been rectified.

Hopefully we'll get a backdated RNS now for all the contracts and developments they've been banging out.

Apologies for the tongue in cheek humour but what's happening with this company is just .......... Sorry I can't find the word.

Some big offloading going on behind the scenes. I doubt that's PI but would love to know who and why. Anyhow, plenty of buyers down here so once this seller wraps up we can start the ascendancy. Hopefully soon.

Lots of 5m trades showing up. Hard to know which are buys and sells. Some will be sells but most look like buys which explains the little bounce we've had so far. Still think it can go higher today.

That was a different kind of placing to what the trolls were saying. £1.5m? I think a few on here called it that there would be a placing to let Rod in. They were correct. It will be very interesting to see the next set of results.

It's PI's buying at the moment. Now Rod is officially Chairman and invested I am expecting the project review to be part of a bigger investor presentation. I'd also like to see Rod present it. With Rod's connections and now commitment I'm expecting the II's to start taking note. Once they come in and the TR1's start flowing then happy days. Getting the AA deal over the line will be a major checkpoint and if Rod had any doubts then I'm sure he wouldn't have just thrown £250k at this. All imo of course

It's highly likely that Rod and Bill have seen the result of the finance model, it may not be complete yet but they'll have enough information to know what it's going to look like. Today they spent £260k of their own money buying UFO shares. Bill's Mrs is having to do without a kitchen because Bill sees it has he'll be able to buy her a restaurant next year.

Added a chunk this morning. If you look at the trades going through I can't see why it's dropped. MM's clearly read the RNS and thought 'right, no matter what happens I'm dropping it to the placing price'. It's unjust and I'm expecting a bounce back towards where we ended yesterday.

No one is selling by the looks of it so MM's taking the pee a little here.

Still have Rod's review to come and the Finance model and the phase 4 results.

Possibly, apparently it pays for itself in 8 months, that will be pre tax.

From the accounts:

The GLA Acquisition completed on 10 July 2022. The cash paid on completion comprised the initial cash consideration payable of US$125.0MM (€122.7MM), less the deposit paid in January, post-tax cashflows between the economic effective date of 1 January 2022 and the completion date and working capital and other adjustments.

Post tax cash flows were probably about $50m, so net payment to Total would have been about $70m

Kist had cash at Jun 30 of €148m. At Aug they had €153m. An increase of €5m. So if we paid Total the €70m payment then we effectively generated pre tax cash of €75m in July and August. Not bad considering a 4 week shutdown. September will be tasty.

I read this line has been quite a significant reason for Bill to stay.

All outstanding rights to option conversion and performance share issues will terminate immediately should the recipients leave the employment of the company.

Bill has 110m share options. If/when UFO get to fair value 2.7p then Bill could lose almost £2m in profit by leaving early. It's a pretty big incentive. He also has lots of exploring to do.

A quick question. Our 20% share of GLA wasn't included in H1 as it didn't conclude until July. The effective date was the 1st January so am I correct in think that the results for GLA will be included in the FY accounts.

At the moment we have reported €102m profit but this will likely double when you include GLA.

Also, weren't we due to get our share of cash from GLA from Jan 1st. We've paid the $125m now and apparently the asset pays for itself in 8 months so when are we due to monies from Total?

A little confused as to how the transaction is accounted for. Did we own 20% from Jan 1st or July?