Member Info for DRB83

Even if they sell them it's a drop of water in a big ocean.

Investors still waiting on the sidelines here. The iron ore price is the thing that can stop us going into production imo and that is highly unlikely.

I don't see any reason why we wouldn't get a mining license. This is what Aus do.
Funding - comes down to economics in the end which is primarily driven by the iron ore price. As it is AA are serious about us.
Suppliers- as long as they make money then they'll do the work. As long as we make money we can pay the suppliers so again comes down to the price of iron ore.
What else is there to stop us.
The road - We now have everything in place to build it except funding. Yet.
The port - I can't see this being a problem.

Everything hinges on the iron ore price. Simple as that. I might start buying some myself just to push the price up.

38m shares. 65m+ already traded today. Those warrants are like a drop in the ocean. It's a few extra quid in the bank for Angs.

1.5% of total shares.

Yeah there's certainly risk and potential downside to owning the contractors but there's also clear upside. I'm also suggesting it may be worth considering 1-2 years down the line. I certainly wouldn't be committing to it with the current market sentiment. Also remember Brockman has potentially 250mt, even at 2.5t pa thats 100 years. If we are serious about iron ore and trust that the fundamentals will come good then why not invest in the contractors and own the profit they make as well as the profit we make. You could even split it and own one contractor and have 2 others working on the same site. It all comes down to payback < 2 years would be a great opportunity.

Whilst we wait for the next news I'm just developing my 5 year plan that's all. Lol

Fenix bought the road haulage company. I'm starting to think that given how long we may be at Han**** that we should consider buying the haulage company and the mining company. That will significantly reduce our production costs which will protect us further against the iron ore price.

Already pays for itself I bet as we would have had to pay something just for access. Keep growing the Jorc. The other 2 license applications look great additions too. Especially the bottom one. I'm surprised there's still licenses up for grabs tbh. We should be mopping them all up at these prices.

Which one we going with?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

They do make margin on the capex part of the cost oil. Initially at least.

I had a ball park figure of between $5.50-6 per gross barrel produced. I.e 45kboe/d generates is about $90-100m net profit pa.

This assumes the CRP is empty and that production is ave 45000. Just ball park.

We are the contractor/operator of the site. We don't own the oil unfortunately.

Whoops meant H1 not H2

Yes was just looking at the proven reserves but certainly huge potential at GLA and somewhere for us to invest heavily whilst reaping the full allocation of the tax allowance.

H2 results will be a monster but Q3 will be even better and as demand spikes in winter then Q4 should be the best yet.

KOTB, where you getting 222p from. I'm seeing 410p

Apologies, I see now that the 6.2m reserves is our share giving us to the end of 2024

Kistos expects production from the assets to be acquired to average approximately 6,000 boe/d (net) during 2022 with 2P reserves as at the effective date of the Acquisition of 6.2 MMboe (operator's estimate).

6000boe net equals 30000 gross right.
6.2m / 30000 = 207 days of 2P reserves. That takes us to mid August. Am I reading it wrong or has the 2p reserves completely depleted?

The 65% income tax on profits is a huge incentive to reinvest so I'm expecting a rather large capex budget for the rest of 2022 and into 2023 as well as M&A, possibly in assets that are cheap and need a lot of work doing to them to get them up and running. Dividends don't add any value and whilst some are appreciated by the market the key for Serica is to reinvest for the future so that when things settle in a few years we'll be producing 100000boe/d.

I here a lot of noise from a few on here about the volatile therm price dragging the SP down.

In 2021 the therm priced average £1.13.
2022 ave to mid Jul £1.77
July22 ave about £2
Aug22 ave above £4
Current price £4.09

Since July we've been producing close to 30000boe/d 85% of which is UK gas. Say 26000 boe/d due to recent 3000 Inc from Bruce.

26000boe/D is about £180m revenue in August. Cost less than £10m. Hedge liability about £6m. £164m op profit for August alone. £82m for July.

We made £250m after op profit last year. We've made that in July and August.

The therm price could drop to £2 and profits would still be significantly higher than last year.

I think it shows that had it not been for this toxic relationship with our 2 major shareholders then our SP would probably be over £15. We are where we are but it's going to take another ii or 2 to push us back to those levels now. PI's won't manage it alone. Good results in the next update will help with the rerate but I'm not expecting Q3 to be better than q2. Q2 was an amazing result but we can't under estimate the loss of Morbid. The result is in the Trident reports. We'll have some rising stars coming through for sure but we lost our Lewandowski in May and that hurts. The one thing I am confident about is the positive effect of showcase. Large margins and a rapidly growing top line may help bridge the gap. Long term the business is a prime target for a major so it's just a matter of time and making sure we can successfully navigate these current stormy waters

B2, that was an extract from the article. At the bottom of my post I clearly state that Promate fixes the issue.

Technically however, The Primerdesign device does require a 'multi-pipette' distillation process when used in conjunction with Exsig.

By using Promate no such phase is required. Basically the NHS are saying Exsig and the Q machine didn't work well together. Exsig made the Q look bad.

Not sure why it wasn't just a case of 'no problem NHS, we now have Promate to fix the issue so we'll replace the Exsig assay FOC. It would have apparently cost us £20m to replace and may have just won us the contract extension. I'm sure there's more to it than that. After all, it was around Dec/Jan that the DHSC placed a £50m Promate order.

Was GM playing hardball and not willing to replace FOC. Was this enough to tip the DHSC over the edge and take us to dispute and immediately stop all future purchases.

If so then GM cost us £bns yes billions in future sales. If that is the case then how can we release the LTIP funds to him. He's cost us all dearly.

A reminder of the article at the time

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-rollout-of-rapid-testing-machine-in-english-hospitals-to-be-halted-b1762732.html%3famp

During the first rollout of the devices, hospitals from a range of trusts, including Norfolk Community Health and Care NHS Trust, warned that they did not have the necessary ancillary products or staff needed to operate the machines

The Primerdesign device requires a
“multi-pipette” distillation process that sees patient swab samples placed from one solution to another by trained biomedical scientists, before eventually being processed via the machine.

Hospital figures have argued that the procedure, which also requires large protective safety cabinets to prevent exposure and contamination of samples, is too complex and time-demanding.

A spokesperson for the government said: “All the testing technologies used in NHS hospitals have been clinically validated and are highly accurate.

I believe Promate and Coprep now fix these issues but they came too late, the damage was done.

Win or lose, had we got this rollout right we would be a midcap company now. That's why most of us bought in in the first place. Oh the fall from grace. The reminder hurts.

Given the news I was hoping for more tbh but I guess slow and steady is better than sharp and volatile. I'm betting on news next week.