Member Info for DRB83

Thanks Max, our posts crossed

I just noticed the $27 profit per wet tonne when the average CPR price was $137. Something doesn't quite stack up as the current CFR price of $100 would imply that Fenix are now loss making.

If we have $65/t FOB costs and sea freight costs of $32/t would we be getting $3/t profit to contribute to our admin/finance costs.

Am I missing something obvious here?

$20m dividend announced
$100m mcap with with $70m in cash
EV of $30m (what?)

FOB costs of $62 (ours should be less in real terms) less transport costs I believe, less port costs, ratio 1:1.)
Bought haulage firm which will reduce FOB costs to $52/t (pat attention Rod) although current price increases may offset this gain

There reserves are depleting and they are nowhere near as close to us as increasing them. Current Han**** resources are the size of Iron Ridge but we have km's of ridges still to test and I'm expecting a upgrade to our resource this month. We should be able to get 2 operations running on Han**** in 2024. That means twice as profitable. Twice as much dividends.

Fenix paid dividends in the same year production started. I'm not expecting dividends in 2023 but it may happen. If we can afford to whilst fast tracking Brockman, Vivash, Munni Munni and EH then why not.

With what we have we could be increasing production, sales, dividends yoy for the next 10 years. That's SP growth and dividends growth. Great long term hold here.

Fenix annuals came out Monday. It's their first full year of production. Basically what 2024 could look like for us. Take a browse.

https://fenixresources.com.au/asx-announcements/

Agreed that is a bit of a non starter comment Myavian.

I wouldn't be surprised if AA didn't announce it once it is all official and signed off. If anything it will form part of one number that contains several similar deals in the period. It means nothing imo that AA haven't said anything. Their SH's would probably be confused if they do say anything. It's the equivalent to UFO announcing a $15k expenditure.

Good point visitor. Also, had we not paid out dividends we would have had an annualised $230m more in cash. So $362m net cash Vs a current mcap of $580m. EV of $218m that generates $320m in annual profits. That's a EV/e of 0.7p. Not bad really

I'm new here but I see it slightly different. Our accounts are a hot air balloon with a few weights hanging from the basket. The OP is the flame powering the balloon. The flame is huge and accelerating us upwards at a rate of knots making the weights seem insignificant. By the time the OP settles in 12 months or so if it does at all then most of the weights will have been cut loose and the 2nd flame will have been lit accelerating our balloon even further.

Yet your comments appear to apply 95% weighting to the insignificant issues and 5% weighting to the actual thing that is generating a pe of 1.6 which is also set to reduce further in the coming months.

Whilst we may not be rocketing to the speed some expect you can't ignore that GKP are still rocketing.

Certainly interesting and would rather be apart of the story than just watching from the sidelines.

Yep, for sure if AA want Han**** then for sure they'll want Brockman and Vivash. We'll need them also as the capex will be significantly more than $30m I suspect. Longer roads required.

5x5, so I wonder what the plan is for AA. Will they be shipping it over to Brazil to upgrade their Brazilian ore before selling onto the market. If so, who buys their ore from Brazil? Is it still largely China. Just wondering if by linking up with AA we may not be as reliant on China in terms of sales.

Cricket in India is like Premier League in England, Baseball in America. Albeit I would have thought Dravid probably more associated with the 30-40 year olds not so much the teenagers but still he's well known to the parents who will ultimately be heavily involved with their kids careers.

Also included within Trade receivables was $3m receivable in respect of STEM licence sales to Guizhou Quantum With Reality Technology on behalf of the Chinese Academy of Science.

I'm assuming Dev received this in May and then with the $5m in August and a cash outflow of £400k per month that's more than enough to get them through to relisting.

From the RNS:
unlike conventional debt finance, the potential bespoke funding with offtake provides alignment between the parties for the pursuit of scale across multiple assets

Pursuit of scale got me wondering. AA want 100% offtake. They are huge. 1.25mt pa is pittance to them. Is Bill trying to say that AA want more shovels. 10mt lasts 8 years but when we increase that to 30mt then maybe AA want 3-4 shovels. Maybe more. If they get a good deal from us then they'll want that 10-30mt out of the ground in 3 years. All of a sudden your churning $100-150m profit per annum. Not bad potential for a company currently worth £30m.

A quick question for the more mining savvy. Are AA already operating with iron in Aus? Do they want it to upgrade their own lower grade ore? I thought I read somewhere that AA were in iron in Brazil and SA but no mention of Aus.

I suspect there will be some capex for the building of on site storage facilities etc which can be built in parallel whilst producing. Possibly maybe

Infor, you say we are generating our mcap in annual sales and say that is a fair price. It's likely we have £600m in cash giving us a EV of £450m. £1bn sales (conservative at current gas price) would generate well over our EV in 9 months never mind 12 months. We'll be able to give a £4 dividend out in a few months. How is today's SP a fair value.

Surely summer maintenance program is expected and priced in.

The contract in dispute started Sep20. We had a significant amount of sales in H120 from the government. What products were we supplying then. They never had any issues with those hence the September contract.

I'm just a little confused as to how these September products caused so much confusion around what the DHSC thought they were getting. It must have been a new product yes.

Interesting, very interesting.

PI, no one knows for sure which way this will go. It's not even binary as something in the middle could be agreed.

Having said this. Knowing the little that we think we know then I would tend to sway towards ncyt and their strong grounds. I certainly won't be taking a further advance on my mortgage to bet on it though.

It's only a matter of time before the II's start to sit up in their seats. If AA come on board then that will reassure many II's and with Rod's experience of working with II's then the jungle drums will start to get piercing. By the time we get our first ore out I predict we'll be in a uptrend. 50ma above 100ma above 200ma. It starts this year for sure imo.