Member Info for DRB83

New here. Quick question. Kist paid $125m for GLA. Am I right in saying Kist also has to pay $40m in Jan23?

Thanks in advance

Yes HarChris, agreed that at £68m mcap the market has priced the dispute loss in. That's not to say it won't go lower.

Cash £40m
Giving the rest of the business a value of £28m. After this year's results thats probably right on the net assets (less cash) figure.

So what I'm saying is today's SP values us 12 months out at Net Assets after losing the dispute 100%.

B2, it could possibly be TA that caused the drop. The 107 support failed and we are dropping until we find a new support. The 107 failed around the time of the report being published so who knows exactly. I'd rather it be TA if honest as that could mean a nice bounce could send us back tomards 107 and possibly in to 120 but time will tell.

HarChris, the reason for the change is the £20m on the trade receivables that will be cancelled off. I missed it from the accounts that the full disputed amount is £155m not £135m (that's just what we owe them in cash)

So whilst we will have to pay back £86m if we lose the bod don't think that we'll be able to pay that back immediately as clearly due to investment costs, working capital needs, LTIP and IT-IS reducing the cash balance below £86m.

However, it is likely that the government will agree to a payment plan as we will be able to prove that we have at least £40m due back from HMRC (£25m VAT and £15m Corporation Tax, although corporation tax may be more). I also think that the judge will push for a reasonable payment plan to be agreed.

Therefore without M&A we would likely have say £40m left in cash after full settlement and a 3-6 month payment plan.

JM won't want to commit too much of that £40m to M&A so id expect no more than £20m being ringfenced for M&A.

If in 12 months we have settled the dispute and spent £20m on M&A and assuming the business is net zero cash flow then we'll have £20m in the bank and have net assets of around £100m. By then sentiment should be more favourable as dispute will be behind us, M&A helping to improve revenue and bottom line and our own portfolio hopefully will be generating sales. That improved sentiment, even if it got us back to a NA value would put the SP at £1.50 ish.

Agreed HarChris but the weight of the uncertainty is pulling the SP down dramatically and if this uncertainty drags on for another year or 2 then.... Well I don't know.

Sorry meant H2 £9m revenue

HarChris, yes but H1 had £16m revenue and H2 has £16m revenue with lots of heads being carried that we no longer require. It takes time to make people redundant and costs money so I suspect the next set of accounts will see a far greater rate of cash burn unfortunately. There's a good chance that once we settled all payments in 2022 then cash at Dec 31 will be around £85m exc M&A activity obviously.

Our messages crossed HarChris but yes you could be correct. After all, if the DHSC win then our profit for 2020 will be restated down by about £110m (when inc the £20m warranty accrual release). This will mean a big tax refund. Also, the credit notes we will have to issue for the £155m invoices will bring us a significant VAT refund of c£25m. Depending on the timing of said receipts you would think those credits would see us through comfortably but it could take a few months to get from HMRC so we may be forced into agreeing a payment plan.

I'm not sure if DHSC could demand an immediate payment and send us into Administration. Any lawyers on here. I'm sure it won't come to that but I never thought we'd be loss making again.

So my understanding is that £155m is in dispute of which £135m has been paid, the remaining £20m sits on our trade receivables. Add to that the £49m invoice from Q1 2021 which hasn't been paid and you get close to the £74m but the maths isn't perfect.

If DHSC win then they get back the £135m plus £20m of invoices they haven't yet paid get cancelled/credited. This means if DHSC win then we'll owe them £135m and they'll owe us just the £49m from Q1. That's a net £86m.

So I'm assuming the cash flow forecast to Aug23 says we'll have less than £86m. Which stacks up as we now appear to be cash burning. Throw on top of that the LTIP payments and IT IS payment and it makes sense. It tells me that DA is not expecting anything great from H22022 or H1 2023.

Or it could be that they plan to invest the cash they have today before Aug23.

Either way, the phrase " a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the company as a going concern" is what I believe has caused the recent drop. Who knows how low it will go. As ever, don't look to the bod to shed any light on this. Stinks

I believe Exmex may have found the reason for the latest drop in SP.

Check the going concern section of the Novacyt Holdings UK accounts published 23 Aug and compare to the going concern statement in the Novacyt Group accounts from April.

Considering that only 4 months have passed the difference is stark.

I haven't got time to discuss now but it reads as though DHSC have paid us £135m and want all £135m back. The £74m they owe us appears to be separate We've gone from April being able to cover a loss of the dispute by cash to in August needing to raise if we lose.

Good find Exmex.

Sorry I thought you meant men's PL. Yeah women's Euros were certainly great for families and for getting young girls into watching/playing football. Not sure PL will be at that level for a few years though.

Men's football a different bunch especially when you have fans from each team in the same room with no security. Oh and then throw several cheap beers in and you have a recipe for a really great night.

It would probably bankrupt JDW on the repair bills alone nevermind the damage to its reputation.

Digby, covered in £25m non current assets but yes your right. Worthless.

We could shut up shop today and get the liquidators in and end up with probably £2 per share.

Or we could stay open and carry on as we are and sell our shares on the open market for 94p. Next week who knows maybe 85p. What should we do? Mmmm.

It speaks volumes that the business DA and JM are overseeing is worth more than twice as much closed as it is open. Wow. Put that on your CV and smoke it.

Can someone let DA and the bod know that currently the market values all Ncyt's non cash assets at less than worthless.

The £11m worth of stock - worthless
The £20m net receivables - worthless
Those £25m of non current assets - worthless
This R&D dept that everyone praises so much - worthless
The bioinformatics division that is the core of being first responder and taken years to build - worthless
Primer Design which promised so much during the early stages of the pandemic - now worthless
IT-IS bought for £6-8m - now worthless
The hundreds of patents we have developed over almost 20 years - each and everyone worthless
The contracts and partnerships we have developed over almost 20 years - now worthless
The customer relationships we've built with the likes of WHO and UNICEF and should I say it NHS - absolutely worthless.

Even the £99m we have in cash is only worth £68m. What a discount. This is £99m that has no restrictions on it whatsoever, it could be drawn out of the bank tomorrow. Even that is only worth £68m and next week it may only be worth £60m.

Can someone let DA and the bod know please. I'd love to hear their thoughts. I'd be so embarrassed. It actually explains why we only see them once per year. Their too ashamed to show their faces.

Disgraceful.

Is that the business model JDW are going for. Ram the place full of lager louts and football hooligans. Nice. I can see it really propelling the SP in the long run.

AIM is driven on fundamentals and sentiment. The balance swings like a pendulum depending on the company. The pendulum stopped swinging for ncyt a while back and got stuck on sentiment which unfortunately just happens to be rock bottom. I don't know where the bottom is but It will take great fundamental news to shift this pendulum back in our favour.

I didn't see the 2.7m and with the 0.9m that's the 3.5m buy covered. Now we need lots more big buys please.

Turns out the 1m trade was a different colour to what I was expecting. A trader getting a few % profit on a mini spike. Jeez

A few more please. Rod finally convincing his mates

It's called speculation. It's not until after when you realise it was right or wrong. Investors are entitled to speculate and always will. It had basis and frankly gave us something to talk about and debate. Ncyt don't tell us diddly so we are forced to speculate more than other shares.

Myavian, the carrot theory isn't really working though as here we are at 0.5p.

Let's assume it is just a carrot, how do you vision Han**** playing out?