Member Info for DRB83

Just reiteration of a previouly mentioned DHSC negative imo. No news in there on that front.

5 years is too long Kitzie. We need to start doing both in the next 12 months. Nothing wrong with acquiring non-covid businesses and then using our cash pile that is currently sat doing nothing, to help them grow. Lots of synergies that Ncyt can leverage.

Well, now the accounts are out of the way could we see some juicy buys. I am expecting some. Come on DA. You need to put your money where your mouth is.

I also noted GM reiterate the £100m. That's £46m in H2. He has to be down playing that. He will by now be able to see half of that as actuals. It confirms that he has built absolutely nothing into that number for Microgen (bar £1m or so). Come on PD or whoever is sat on our self test approval form. Now is the time.

Yep, at least it is all in the accounts now. £3m per month cash and growing in my opinion. With every machine we sell we further implant our business into the supply chain. Sold £1.5m in 6 months. Anyone remember how much a q16 and q32 cost?

It's all up from here imo. The accounts now have almost £100m of provisions in there. That is on a supply of £170m from memory. That's 59% provision. Even a 50/50 result not only means an influx of cash but an uplift in the p&l and a release of said brakes.

Let's not forget GM said

Management considers it to be more likely than not that the 30 June 2021 balances are recoverable.

It's more likely that we recover 100%. I'm happy with 50% just so we can move on at speed.

It's one thing being prudent but writing off

£41m revenue
£32m stock
£73m write down in 6 months.

Wow

Anyone notice that we sold twice as many machines to Asia-Pacific than anywhere else in the world. I expect large growth of sales in H2. It's not far off US level. Could they overtake the US into 3rd come FY.

Surprisingly, only increased by £1.1m or 18% year on year despite the huge headcount increase. £7m for 250 ish heads seems steep. Works out in excess of £50k pa salary. We must have an army of boffins working for us. We do have world class bioinformatics and R&D though.

Need to bring something to the party in H2. £1.7m of external sales is just not good enough 15 months into a pandemic. Mind you, only £6k spent on R&D so clearly not seen as main player up to end of June. Really hope this changes given the Pathflow range we have now and not to forget our shiny new saliva self test. Could/should be huge.

Management considers it to be more likely than not that the 30 June 2021 balances are recoverable.

Given how conservative and prudent GM tends to be, I find this a very bullish comment. Juicy.

We received £47m from DHSC

However, we have paid

£16m in VAT,
£30m in tax
Spent £13m on additional stock
Have £24m + £41m of our sales cash currently being held by DHSC
And still had £77m to play with at 30 June.

Since then:
We make about £3m per month cash so another £9m generated
£10m to come back from HMRC
Less - £6m to come off for Vat in Q2.
No tax to pay (yet)
That gives us a kitty of £92m going into H2. Add onto that a favourable dispute outcome of £65m cash and you start to see how big the rerate will be once resolved.

The £10m is a genuine reclaim that will boost our cash but the other £7m will hopefully disappear as I'm hoping on a resolution that will restore our profit margins.

Not had long to browse the numbers just going to throw down my first thoughts.

I see people stating that the £8m VAT reclaim is good news. We only get the reclaim if we don't get the £49m sales from DHSC so it's bad news if we get the reclaim. I want to the £49m.

We shall see Vas but I prefer the bounce off 25p with solid news this week.

Thanks Vas. Ta is useful for when to buy. I only use it on the odd occasion in stocks that I am confident in the fundamentals. I would say your 21.5p support was more like 25p which we are currently flirting with. Good news soon and 25p could well be a spring board. Bad news and yes another buying opportunity for some.

Just received the below email from my son's school.

Local Authority Public Health are advising that students in years 7, 8 and 9 who have not had COVID-19 in the last 90 days, to undertake a one-off PCR test this weekend, in addition, to the continued use of LFD home tests at least twice weekly.

The reason for this is that we continue to see increasing rates in these three-year groups, even with the provision of twice-weekly home testing and increased intervention within school. In an attempt to further stem transmission, the Local Authority is advising a one off PCR test, in addition to LFD home testing for the following reasons:

PCR testing for COVID-19 is very sensitive and the most accurate test we have available to us.
PCR tests are more accurate than LFD home tests.
PCR testing can pick up infection early, with low levels of infection even before symptoms have started.
Public Health are hopeful that PCR testing will allow us to identify any cases early and prevent further transmission within the school and local communities.

You can arrange a PCR test through the Government website www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test. When asked why you are arranging a test, please select the option, "I've been asked to get a test by my local council, health protection team or healthcare professional", and then select "My local council or health protection team have asked me to get a test, even though I do not have symptoms".

As infection rates in our local community continue to be significantly higher than the average rates being experienced in other areas of the Country, we have also asked the Public Health Team for further information about what additional measures are being taken to stem the spread of the virus outside of school. We will update you further in this regard as soon as we have details.

End of email

An intesting strategy that will increase the number of PCR tests being used going forward. Just to add. There are about 2000 pupils at my son's school.

Kaeren, happy with that and keen to move on.

Agree with Kaeren in most part except the negative undertone. I believe you reference a concern that I wanted to discuss a few days back. I will continue to want to discuss genuine concerns here to a) dispell them or b) factor them into my decision making. I'd be amazed if all lth's didn't do the same. This isn't monopoly money we're playing with.

Covid, for what it's worth I will say this only one more time. I am not Porky. Don't really care who believes it or not as long as it doesn't affect me collating my research here. Can we move on now please.

That's great jwoz. Totally stand by my earlier comments. It's a shame they didn't revise the actual calculations but I guess we can do that ourselves. Whichever way you slice it UFO's current SP is much less than the sum of its parts. It will rerate all in good time.