Member Info for Dr_DMS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53745481

Looks like the 2 gene test could be a good move from NCYT

Oh its the unapproved, non peer reviewed S&S tests that nobody knows anything about, best wait for the proper Novacyt test i think

Or will it be DNA Nudge or Oxford Nanopore...

7.15am will be taking swab and announcing test result whilst still on ir, wonder if it could be us?

Another couple of late buys at 551k & 371k

Woodaldo - good point, i forgot about the 96 well instruments

There are around 22,000 care homes in the UK< so gov order of 5000 machines is peanuts..

Quick back of fag packet calculation shows that even with a turnaround time of 24 hrs for Novacyt swab test (assuming 60mins actual PCR time), Novacyt can still process 20 - 45 x more samples per day/per machine than DNA Nudge. Novacyt can process 14 or 30 samples at a time, whereas DNA Nudge is single sample per machine..

Once the NPT system is in operation, this multiple will be many times higher.

As such, i think DNA Nudge application is limited to small workplaces with only 10 or so people needing testing per day (e.g. care home) - no good for airports, cruise ships, football stadiums etc. Its also still using the NP swab which is very uncomfortable vs NCYT saliva tests.

Last RNS stated:

Development of a respiratory testing panel

There remains a challenge for healthcare providers in differentiating COVID-19 from other respiratory diseases, particularly during a seasonal flu outbreak, due to patients presenting with similar symptoms. This is driving the requirement for the development of respiratory testing panels that are able to diagnose and distinguish the difference between types of flu and COVID-19. Novacyt has been working closely with certain key opinion leaders to determine the make-up of such panels. This has resulted in the development of a panel covering the differential diagnosis of influenza A&B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and COVID-19. Novacyt expects to launch the panel as a CE Mark product in September 2020 for the 2020/21 "flu season" in the Northern hemisphere.

I am not sure what they mean by 'test panel' - could this be a POC test from Novacyt??

Why are they almost always wrong (on the low side)?

Halifax/iWeb always correct..

They must mean its like a plane, it's flying but it can be going up, down, or no change hahaha :)

I think these people must be very bored, with nothing else to do all day.

I would like to see a RNS to say what they are going to invest their profits in rather than a dividend, can buy other dividend stocks for that...

Dont listen to anyone on here about RNS timing, nobody knows anything specific except Novacyt, and they wont divulge any info, as expected from such a professional company.

Cheers Sharehunter, i enjoy your enthusiasm :)
We probably had a slight excess in capacity recently, as evidenced by the same day shipping adverts but things have moved on, societies opened up and cases are increasing everywhere (or will be), dont trust official numbers by gov. No economies cannot afford 2nd lockdowns, so they need to accommodate 2nd waves of COVID instead. That means a lot more testing to get things moving again and allow economies to compete with each other (extremely important). As such, 10M will not be enough to move things on, its a lot, and millions more than a lot of competitors, but we need even more so stay ahead and move SP up. No doubt CEO knows this and will announce more joint MFT agreements soon.
Prices per test will need to drop a little too, especially for some countries.
Would be good to see Novacyt margins with new tests, they may cost less to end user but do they still develop same margins? I think they will do, there, or there abouts. End users will buy more though, with quicker tests, to increase lab efficiency.
Mobile testing will come to the fore in July/August/Sept with schools, airlines, construction, retail, opening up as well as major focus on care homes.
I was invested for short term since early March but see this long term hold until next year at least now
Cheers
D

With all the increased demand about to explode onto the market, i believe the 10M a month will quickly be depleted (good for sales at least and best so far) but i feel we may need to look at ramping even up to 15 -20M a month now to capitalise on the almost guaranteed 2nd waves that are appearing all over the place. Quicker tests are good, yes, but means we need to make even more. I hope Novacyt are using the millions in liquid cash now to ramp production higher, hopefully a RNS will confirm soon....

Are they not due to release Q1 results as well though??
That should give a better idea of whats going on, regional breakdowns etc

These numbers, although not quite a high as i was expecting, are only set to increase IMO.
Lockdowns are easing, schools re-opening, people going back to work, more people meeting up in gardens etc.
The rate of infection is likely to start increasing, but the real change in demand for testing will come from Test and Trace and then even more once the same is done via an app...

I think the gov is expecting this, hence why they have over 200,000 a day capacity but only using about 120,000 tests, they need the extra capacity to cater for the expected increase in R0. RNS already said UK is biggest market.

Seadoc,

Thanks for your explanation, thats quite useful info.

To answer you question, I am PhD in Chemistry since 1997 but just retired @ 48..(mainly employed in petrochemical, oil, additives, automotive and environmental emissions sectors, since 2010 as a consultant).

I've been looking into share dealing for a while now, but only just started in March this year, now seems an ideal time to get into it to me.

My background means i understand the aspects of testing, assays, development, validation, industrialisation etc etc but, obviously, on a steep learning curve w.r.t. share dealing.

I was wondering if the SP is completely controlled by the MMs or if there were other factors involved e.g. could there be automatic algorithms that increment the SP up or down, depending on the volumes of buys/sells involved. I guess the MM can hold the SP at a particular level to gain their own goals, but not to the extent that a company becomes completely under or over valued (company itself would not be very happy - hostile takeovers could happen or if they wanted to sell, may not get a good deal etc)...

Sorry if these are dumb questions, everyone gotta learn somehow! :)

Are these solely controlled by the MM's or other means too?

Totally agree with Jdc,
I've seen numerous clips on the news where the testing station staff barely put the swabs in the nose/throat for 1 second, they seem too scared to get close to the patient. Obviously, any test result is completely dependent on getting a decent sample.

I've been checking the worldometers and government UK data since December, and noticed that the ratio of COVID-19 positive vs actual tested, seems to have dropped from around 30% to less than 10% quite recently. I wonder if part of this is due to the introduction of drive through testing stations, and samples not being administered as well as those from trained/professional healthcare workers in hospital settings..

Another difference could be storage of the swab samples. Yesterday, i was walking the dog at lunchtime, there happened to be a COVID testing station at the local leisure centre. I had a good look around (its a tiny car park so easy to see everything) and could not see any cold storage boxes or anything like that, just normal plastic boxes for the samples sat there baking in the sun...

Its concerning if people are getting false negatives due to the procedures used to collect and store the samples, they would obviously need to wait many days for a repeat test, in the meantime potentially spreading the virus around...