Member Info for DowntoEarth

Teens after tender approval? I can see this in the teens before tender approval if approval comes at the end of the first quarter. It was 17p at the beginning of last year before anticipated tender approval. Market will expect approval this time because of all the faffing around before the tender was submitted for the second time. Obviously we've had 30% dilution in the last 12 months but if you factor in the reserves upgrade, the additional anticipated reserves uprgrade from the new wells and work done in the field, acheiving 17p before March will be easy in my opinion. The three key items to unlock the SP to a much higher level will be the RFP, successful completion of the wells with gas good flows and environmental impact assessment approval for the power lines. Once these boxes have been ticked, I'd expect some serious investment interest, maybe even a farm in from a major energy supplier as the project will be good to go and easily scaleable with investment.

BTW, I think the SP has bottomed out and we should see it trending up through January and February.

50,084 'sell' was in fact a buy from me.

We only need a sniff of a farmout with someone like Total or Shell and 20 to 30p will seem like an absolute bargain. As this project is so easily scalable, an investment from a major taking half the reserves will very quickly transform this company. Personally I think that’s what will happen once we prove ourselves with the 10 MW.

Nice to see that Tony has invested in a decent webcam. The one he normally uses for proactive investors makes him look like he's at deaths door, the new one makes him look reassuringly healthy!

Have MyPay gone? RNS states that they no longer have a notifiable interest. Could still own tens of millions.

Looks like a sell and a buy to me.

I think the company misjudged the value shareholders place on the RFP and were caught by surprise at the SP fall when it was cancelled. My interpretation of the logic behind Tlou’s new bid for the RFP is purely to underpin the shareprice to a level where any future fundraise will be far less costly than the one we had back in the summer. The BOD realise that without the government RFP in place the SP will always be undervalued. Being awarded the 10MW and being able to deliver it will profoundly change this company in terms of value, which will enable them to raise funds for further expansion beyond the 10MW . Personally I don’t think the company have any intention of increasing the RFP above 10WM. Clearly the company believe long term there is more money to be made by selling into the grid at the spot price, rather than being tied in to a long term contract with the Bots government.

I reckon around the end of November we will see a significant strengthening of the SP, when decent money arrives in anticipation of the decision could possible come before Christmas. Don't think much will happen this month. In many ways it's a bit like groundhog day from events of last year and I think investors will be using the price history of last year as a guide of when to invest this year.

0.1252p that is an all-time low, is in not? Got a feeling this will be below 0.1p before Astor Management convert their £400,000 giving them half the company. I'd be surprised if there is a potential buyer of this mine as suggested in the RNS, surely if there was the BOD would have stumped up the additional £100,000 mentioned in the interims last week. Something weird going on here, why are they giving the company away to Ashwath for peanuts? and if it's worthless, why does he want it?

And another £100,000 load to be converted into dirt cheap shares. Why release an RNS at 4:20pm on a Friday unless it was shite?

Surely extending the tender submission date by 4 weeks was an admission of ambiguity?

Based on the SP movements last year around the RFP tender ,when we got up to 17p, I think following submission of this tender, this should be at least 12p by Christmas. Worth also noting we also have substantially more 1p & 2p reserves than this time last year - with potentially a lot more to come from the drilling campaign.

Today's SP is almost like selling fivers for a tenner!

My reading of the delay is that although Tlou asked for clarification and the answer they got did not require them to revisit the tender submission date, the same does not apply to the other bidder - hence why the Bots government extended it by 4 weeks to be transparent. There are only 2 bidders in this process if something is not absolutely equal to both bidders, there is no tender process and we could end up back to square 1.

To my mind it reinforces the view that the Bots government are above corruption. Had they not given the extension, the other party could ague that they were not given time to deal with this 'new information' and thereby were disadvantaged in their tender process.

"The end about the delay in rfp date stated it was not us who asked for the extension but in the latest interview we are being told it was because we questioned the government. It all seems a bit suspicious to me."

I don't see how this is suspicious, Tlou asked a question, government gave a response, Tlou happy with response, government extended tender, that's the normal way tenders work to ensure a level playing field for all tenderers. Tlou did not ask for an extension.

Only 3 more trading days left of Q3 to let shareholders know how much of the company they are giving away......

"In Q3 2018, the Company will to seek to procure sufficient additional longer-term financing to enable the recommencement of production at the Capricorn Sapphire mine later this year (the "Additional Financing"). Such Additional Financing will principally be sought by way of a potential equity fund raising(s), loans and pre-production facilities or a combination thereof."

Presumably the 8 people on site were carrying out site investigations rather than actual mining, 250 tonnes mined for a handful of sapphires doesn't sound great. Historically the mine would recover 0.85kg of sapphires for 250 tonnes of material.

Interestingly the company still expects the timeline for a response from the government regarding the RFP to be unchanged. I doubt they would put this in a RNS unless they were formally informed of this. Just means that the tender period has been compressed by 4 weeks.

I don’t think it’s being too optimistic. The tender that was cancelled back in February was done so right at the end of the Tender period. The reasons for the cancellation were fundamental, not nitty gritty details, this suggests that the government didn’t even look at the tender until right towards the end of the tender period. I think this time it will be different, there have clearly been numerous meetings and dialogue between all parties to ensure the government and tenderers are on the same page and any bureaucratic anomalies have been eliminated or addressed. The previous tender was submitted in September 2017, I seem to remember GG saying he expected to hear by Christmas, so although the period was 6 months, he expected a decision within 3 months.

I suppose this is all conjecture until we know how long the tender period will be, but considering the events over the last six months, it might be that the government significantly reduces the tender period anyway. We’ll find out in about 3 weeks.

I honestly think that the tender award will be decided within 8 weeks, not the 6 months for the previous application, due to the dialogue maintained with the government this year. Clearly the pre-tender meeting was to ensure there are no surprises in the submission. Considering this, I think the SP will be back into double figures by the end of September as investors start taking a position.