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Things are moving up. I wonder if there is an imminent RNS about finance?
Good question. Certainly a waste of money on the fees. On a brighter note, there seems to be a reasonable amount of buying today.
The Doc already owns 35% of the company, I’m kind of relieved that he didn’t take another sizeable chunk of new shares, with a preference for debt. I would like to see new investors or preferably the pension fund up their stake. The RNS intimates they are currently negotiating along these lines, let’s see what happens.
If the BOPF buy a decent chunk, I’m sure that will send out all the right signals to the market.
You're speculating that the tariff will be rubbish, but the Doc started investing immediately after the 10MW PPA was signed and he continues to invest. Also the margins can't be as bad as you appear to be guessing if other entities are looking to do the same as Tlou
Oh, I have thought long and hard about what I think will happen with Tlou going forward and I think the most likely scenario will be a company sale after 2MW is reliably going into the grid. It would explain the reasoning behind installing the smaller generators. That might not appeal to some on here, but that's what I feel will happen at which point the pension fund and the Doc will convert their respective loans to equity.
Do you think the Doc shared your 'concerns' when he decided to invest around 20 million dollars into the company?
Excellent news. Might have a little top up.
Brad I wouldn’t ignore solar, going forward It’s pretty obvious that solar will also feature as part of Tlou’s power generation, why else would they have purchase a massive 4000 hectare farm for ‘power generation assets’? It’s a bit overkill unless you are going to need the space, which solar does. The idea that the company would invest millions of dollars for a grid connection solely on the hope that enough gas can be produced from two wells, without a plan B for power generation, is laughable. The company alluded to this in one of their reports a while back if the gas produced at Lesedi is insufficient. I think in due course we will form a partnership with a third party for them to supply the solar panels, whilst Tlou provides the connection to grid and the PPA. The Doc wouldn’t have put the amount of money he has into this company based solely on gas production, of that I am sure.
Don’t forget the recent placement with the ‘sophisticated investors’, somebody must have convinced them that this is more than just a punt.
It's going to take several more months to both dewater lesedi 6 and complete the grid connection, so I would expect the quarterly update to be the next bit of news. Very boring I know, but that's the reality of the situation at the moment. FWIW, I think once grid connection and commercial gas flows are confirmed, this will unlock the news flow we would all like to see.
As expensive as it was, I think the offering to existing shareholders was primarily to mitigate any accusations further down the line that the company is only looking after the chosen few. Having said that, I’m sure the company thought the take up would be higher than it was.
The company has three months to find a buyer for the surplus shares of the offer. Wouldn’t be surprised if we get confirmation of commercial gas before that time expires as if only to drive home the point of the missed opportunity to those who didn’t participate.
I think GG’s main role in the company is smooth out the red tape, which I personally think he’s been pretty good at. He has 2.75 million performance rights, but you’re right to hold £7000 worth of shares for someone in his position is shockingly low. I’m sure he thinks his reward will come when the company is sold on. McIver, no idea what he does.
Interestingly the shortfall in the take up will be available to issue at the company’s discretion. Maybe some of Tony’s mates will benefit and who can complain if existing shareholders didn’t previously take up this offer?
Prospectus stated that 69% complete in April 2023, so it's probably progressing at around 5% per month.
It looks like Tony has committed to purchasing a minimum of 9 million shares to take him up to 50 million in total, he must be confident going forward otherwise he's throwing good money after bad. Also Colm has committed to purchasing his full entitlement.
Post of the month for me!
‘Just YOUR too stupid to realise it!!!’
Oh the irony…….
So far the Doc has risked A$15 million of his money into this project, I doubt very much he did that with the hope of possible 3x return. If this company is reliably producing 10MW of power, the project will become so easily scalable that I'm sure the market cap will be hundreds of millions. This is based on the proven enormous potential, not the actual revenue.
Well, I think i’m going to participate. There’s been so much feathering of the nest at 2p by people who know what’s going on that there must be a very good chance of making very decent money from this level. I suppose it might go below 2p for a short period of time, but then again it might not and if it did, would you be able to buy in any volume?
It's worth remembering that at 10% interest, the cost of the loan is barely covering inflation at present (Australia's inflation is currently at 7.8%). So I suspect the Doc feels he's being quite generous.
Winni,
I can remember an interview with Colm about 5 years ago, when he suggested that they would look to supplying Orapa with gas via a virtual pipeline by compressing the gas and trucking it to the mine. I don’t know whether that proposed method has changed.
What qualifies someone as a ‘sophisticated investor’?Presumably we mere mortals are regarded as ‘unsophisticated investors’?