Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Buying them is the easy bit, knowing when to sell is the really difficult bit. I wouldn't beat yourself up about it though, I bought £5k worth yesterday, which are now showing a loss. I'm fairly confident that the price rise action that happened in March will start again in the next few weeks.
It was a very shrewd buy, just lacking a shrewd sell after the price went up!
The only discussion you heard was from the voices in your head between you, mrmoagi and donk! Time to see a psychiatrist I think.
'The Orapa Diamond Mine is seeking cleaner gas to displace its over-reliance on high carbon producing diesel to supply their 90MW of electricity needs. Tlou will play an integral part in this process..............'
When Tony refers to 'this process' does he mean being part of the 'seeking' - i.e. the tender - or the actual gas supply? If it's the latter, I think he's jumped the gun as that would be major news and before the closing date of the tender.
This situation reminds me of xcite energy a few years ago. BOD wanted to give 98% of the equity to bondholders. It didn't happen and they ended up going bust. I see Enquest have just acquired their Bentley asset for only $2m when at the time it was valued at hundreds of millions $. Stay away from this one, you'll lose money, get out when you can.
I doubt very much they will just have one gang erecting the poles, more likely it will be several gangs working around 10km apart. More of an incentive to finish the job quickly and get paid.
It's not a big deal to hang some extra wires from the already installed poles, should there be a need more than 25MW later. Another example Tony being thrifty and only spending money when necessary.
The reality is, I believe the company are just clearing all the red tape, all the technical issues, proving the route to market, increasing the assets and then selling the company on for fair price. Tony's an entrepreneur, this is what he does.
It's always a good idea Brad to post the item after you've been paid!
That's a great question, perhaps you should ask your alter ego Donk to see what he thinks?
Apparently Tony received $43 million from the sale of his shares of Sunshine Gas, presumably he received a similarly large payoff from Arrow as well? Makes you wonder why he doesn't just fund the whole thing himself!
They need to raise money, go drilling and confirm sufficient gas is available before they could seriously tender. Also clearing Botswana's red tape takes forever, as we all know.
Botsgas state:
'Stages-2, 3 and possibly 4, are scheduled for late 2021 and early 2022, immediately after
data appraisal and fund-raising based on good drilling and testing results. Estimated cost is
A$9M; this should take the project to early production with progressively increasing cash
flow. By then, BotsGas should be able to secure debt funding, especially for production
wells.
BotsGas is focused on securing Gas Sales Agreements, particularly for the Orapa power station which was built to use locally produced CBM and is currently operating sporadically using diesel. There is an opportunity in Botswana for CBM to underpin a transition to renewable energy. There are also opportunities to sell Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and to
use CBM to reliably produce hydrogen fuel.'
Interestingly it goes on to say:
'It is likely that unlocking Botswana’s CBM potential will provide an exit opportunity for
shareholders by sale of company, similar to Ron Prefontaine’s two former ASX listed companies, Arrow Energy and Bow Energy, which were sold in 2010 and 2011 for A$ 3.5billion and
A$ 550 million respectively.'
Very similar career path to our Mr Gilby!
I see that Strata X Energy have merged with Real Energy to form Pure Hydrogen Corporation and they have offloaded their Botswana assets to Botsgas
https://botsgas.com.au/site/PDF/3c73ba63-d3a1-4bd7-ae91-dfa1841bcd38/JointOperatingAgreementStrataXEnergyLimited
They’re miles behind Tlou, I can’t see them tendering for the Orapa supply.
I do remember in an interview with Colm about 3 or 4 years ago, he said that it would be possible to supply Orapa with gas using a 'virtual pipeline' whereby the gas is compressed and trucked between the two sites. Obviously a physical pipeline would be better, but initially maybe a virtual pipeline is the plan in their tender.
I reads to me like they're telling anyone interested in buying shares in the company to get on board now or you're going to miss the boat.
Well BTS, I suspect you timed your two recent buys well.
BPOPF - Botswana Public Officers Pension Fund
BPC - Botswana Power Corporation
PPA - Power Purchase Agreement
SAPP - Southern African Power Pool
BERA - Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority
TG - Tony Gilby (boss based in Brisbane)
GG - Gabaake Gabaake (ex-minister Permanent Secretary/Director General Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources 1986 - now director of TLOU based in Botswana)
CC - Colm Cloonan (Finance directore , based in Ireland)
MM - Minor Miner (chief ramper on here, Mr Strong Buy from 17p down to 2p)
MY1,MFM - My First Million , poster on here
BTS - By the sea , ditto
WHIZZER - Whinging Hardwork Investor Zero Zeal Ever Resentful
Exactly MFM, it's not so much the actual content that's of interest, it's the fact that it was tweeted today by the company.
The company has just retweeted this piece of new as well.
https://yourbotswana.com/2020/06/30/botswana-issues-maiden-power-generation-licences-to-private-producers/
If you've ever been involved in tenders before, you'll know that the preferred bidder normally enters into negotiations with client or contract administrator to clarify any unknowns or ambiguities regarding costs or time that may be apparent in their tender. It could be something like what happens to the price if copper wire goes up by 20%. It's not normal to just rubber stamp the tenderer with the lowest price without carrying out a full appraisal. I'd like to think that shrewd Tony and the gang are nailing down a good price to save company money in the long term. There's no please in some people.
Whizzer, if you genuinely want the SP go up, venting your frustrations on here ain't going to help in achieving that goal, although it might make you feel better in the short term. None of us are happy when the price is going down, however sentiment for the company going forward is still very positive so I don't see this anything more than a blip. Personally I reckon it will bottom out around 3p, stay there for a few weeks and then start climbing again as it did last month - might even happen sooner.