Member Info for DowntoEarth

When you look at the recent presentation, it can be seen that Tlou’s laydown yard in Serowe (found at 22°24'49.5"S 26°44'13.1"E on Google Maps) has recently been cleared. It’s from this location that they propose to distribute the Hydrogen, which would indicate that something is an fact happening on that front.

His impatience is telling him the BOD are a bunch of liars and yet he stays here complaining whilst the value of his investment declines every day. The only reason he stays invested is because his gut tells him that one day this will deliver to its shareholders.

If you don't believe a word of it, why are you still a holder? With that level of scepticism, surely it's about time asked yourself that question or are you suffering with some kind of Stockholm Syndrome? If I didn't believe a word of it, I would have sold up a left a long time ago.
Personally, I'm convinced everything will start falling into place once the 10MW PPA is awarded and nothing much will happen until then. If we get anything from the Orapa tender, that will be a bonus.

I suspect that the 'pivot to hydrogen' has been encouraged by the Bots Government. Five years from now the energy landscape will be different from today and the global appetite for securing Hydrogen from southern Africa could be enormous.

'In an interview, following the project inception meeting recently, head of energy and green hydrogen technologies division at the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Dr Christoph Roevekamp said the project would augment the bridge between SADC, ECOWAS and Germany, and further strengthen multi-lateral cooperation towards sustainable development.

He noted that sustainable production of hydrogen could not be attained by one country, hence the need for global partnerships. Dr Roevekamp noted that hydrogen was the most important and fundamental future economic recovery package as highlighted in the European Green Deal.
"As the oil of the future, Green Hydrogen is a big game-changer in the energy market," he added.'

https://allafrica.com/stories/202009040201.html

In case anyone was wondering, the company did submit a response to the Orapa tender on the 16th June.

Doesn't look like it was extended, so I agree company should really clarify whether we tendered or not.

Best place to look is on the BPC website. When the extended the submission date from the end of May to the 16th June they added the Addendum 1 pdf

https://www.bpc.bw/services-site/tenders/Pages/SUPPLY%20AND%20DELIVERY%20OF%20NATURAL%20GAS%20TO%20ORAPA%2090MW%20POWER%20PLANT.aspx

Or it could have been down to the impending submission date of the Orapa tender, which was due in today at 10 am. I would expect an RNS from the company in the next 24 hours confirming that we submitted a tender and If we we don't get the RNS, then I think it's safe to assume we didn't tender.

Whizzer, the Directors are currently working on reduced salaries for god's sake! Being cheesed off is one thing, but you've clearly lost all faith in this company and the country they operate in. I don't understand why do you continue to put yourself through this ongoing trauma? Why not sell, take a loss, invest elsewhere and try and get back your losses in a company that you have a bit more faith in? Or do you lack the conviction of your own investment decisions to make money elsewhere? I've been in and out of Tlou regularly over the last 2 years and tripled my holding without having to put any extra money in. Personally I see Tlou coming good, so whilst I may go in and out, I want to be holding when the finance package eventually arrives and the additional shares I've acquired should more than cover any dilution that may come with the finance package. You're not going to make any money by do nothing other than incessantly moaning.

The Orapa gas supply tender is due in 36 hours, doesn't look like it's going to be extended again.........or have I spoken too soon?!!!
https://www.bpc.bw/services-site/tenders/Pages/SUPPLY%20AND%20DELIVERY%20OF%20NATURAL%20GAS%20TO%20ORAPA%2090MW%20POWER%20PLANT.aspx

It will be interesting to see if Tlou does tender.

Those small trades are shown as being executed at exactly the same time, so I just think it's one larger trade that's been split up. No idea why though.

Don't worry Appi, I worked out his real agenda a long time ago.

mrmoagi,
For now I'll assume you are invested in this company and logically you would like to see the SP increase, correct? How then do you think incessantly moaning on here is going to help that cause? Seems kind of counter intuitive to me! Unless of course you're not really invested.

It’s worth remembering that only 2 months ago 75 million shares were sold at 3.5p. I’m sure those who participated had a better idea of the company’s future prospects than we do. It’s very easy, when not seeing the complete picture, to assume that things are going badly. A little knowledge can a dangerous thing, I suppose it’s up to the company to ensure we are kept informed.

Brad, the 2 MW PPA came roughly about the same time that global lockdowns started. So I think any subsequent due diligence was put on hold until the beginning of this year when the company announced that CBM was being fast tracked by the minister. From the RNS at the beginning of this year:

'Government support
The Company has received written confirmation from MMGE of the "intention of MMGE to fast track the development of Coal Bed Methane (CBM) in Botswana." MMGE also stated that it is "happy to provide the necessary support to ensure commercial development of CBM."
In relation to the current tender to implement up to 100MW of CBM fired power plants (as outlined further below), MMGE has stated that negotiations with preferred bidders are due to commence in February 2021. The letter also acknowledged that the "Government is fully committed to seeing this project coming to fruition, as it will promote the gas industry, contribute toward import substitution, as well as to improve the livelihood of Batswana."
The Company welcomes this update and looks forward to negotiation and finalisation of the tender process in the near term.'

So in reality, things didn't kick off again until February of this year.

With regards to the Botswana Government, it does appear that the usual 'first mover advantage' doesn't apply here. We are the first mover Guinea Pig for a government that seems clueless. I do wonder whether the perceived lower levels of corruption in Botswana is the reason everything seems to takes so long. In a more more dubiously governed African country, a few bungs here and there could have oiled the wheels nicely and got this thing moving years ago.

I initially thought the hydrogen production was years away (if ever!) But what surprised me in the interview was that TG seamed to be suggesting that hydrogen production is something they're going to begin straight away. Well if this is correct, then the delay of constructing the poles and wires until project finance is completed is not as dubious as I initially thought on Friday, if the company is redirecting finances from the one piece of infrastructure to another if it generates income.

Mrmoagi question:

‘I said it would likely need substantial refurbishing or repurposing in order to switch the plant from dirty cloggy diesel to wonderfully Tlou smelling sweet gas. And asked the question - has that body of work been baked into the gas supply tender (it won’t have been). And if it hasn’t been, when the successful tenderees become aware (they probably are already but don’t dare say, as they just want to win the damned thing) they are going to ask who pays for that cost.’

You then go on to answer your own question!

‘Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) has been mandated by the GoB to MANAGE, OPERATE, and MAINTAIN the Orapa power plant. The plant was setup with capabilities of being run on natural gas and diesel but since 2011, the commissioned mode of operation has been diesel fuel.’

Tlou are tendering to supply and deliver a quantity of gas, what the end user does with that gas is up to them. Your wacky scenario that Tlou will somehow be responsible for the equipment that consumes the gas that Tlou would be contracted to supply, just goes to show you’re either an idiot or that your running out of weird negative scenarios that you think may help your agenda. If you’re suggesting that the customer hasn’t got the funds to pay for their obligations to MANAGE, OPERATE, and MAINTAIN their own equipment, well if it doesn’t work then Orapa will run short of power.

I'm pulling my hair out desperately trying to extrapolate from Donk's posts who might or might not own the alleged 'on its last legs' power plant at Orapa. It must be such a relevant issue that you keep banging on about it. The gas supply tender is with BPC, do we really need to know more than that?

Appi, a perfect summary!