Member Info for DowntoEarth

What 'chunky sells' are you referring to? The 1.5m trade on the 16th was at 3.11p, the spread at the time was 3.00 to 3.20, the price went up afterwards so I'm sure that's a buy. There's a buy of 500k gone through within the last hour, also.

I did notice that TG did seem a bit happier yesterday. I still reckon we'll hear something official about the finance before the AGM at the end of the month.

I thought the shares were expensive at at 1.2p considering they have no assets. Currently £75 million mcap is a joke.

What about the time of the trade? It was an hour before the market opened.

There's a trade shown at 7:01am this morning for 5.2p, surely that's as ASX trade? Why is showing up on LSE?

I think the company will be sold before the need to upgrade 100KM of transmission wires, so why spend extra money on more expensive copper wires now? I'm sure TG's approach is to prove the 10MW concept and move it on to someone with deep pockets.

They said 6 months ago that first electricity sales will be in 2023:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/950220/tlou-energy-ready-to-press-on-with-power-line-construction-says-broker-950220.html

So paying to construct the poles and wires now, for them to sit there unused, seems a bit frivolous to me. Providing the gas production, plant commissioning and poles and wires come together in 2023, things remain on track.

Has whizzer's lse account been hacked?

The AGM is on the 24th November and there is this to be approved:

5. Resolution 5 - Issue of Performance Rights to Mr Colm Cloonan
To consider and, if thought fit, to pass, with or without amendment, the following resolution as an ordinary resolution:
"That, for the purposes of Listing Rule 10.14, section 200B of the Corporations Act and for all other purposes, approval is given for the issue of up to 4,000,000 Performance Rights to Mr Cloonan (or his nominee), a Director of the Company, pursuant to the Company's Performance Rights Plan and otherwise on the terms set out in the Explanatory Memorandum."

Does that not suggest that the company expects the finance to be agreed before the AGM? Otherwise he's achieved nothing of note to benefit such a reward. Interestingly, GG only got 2 million despite sorting out the 10MW PPA. Also suggests to me that the company is putting more value on the finance than the PPA.

Actually, if you allow for the fact that ‘Tranche 1’ is $10m committed for completion value engineering and further investigation works. This means that DOID are only committing $40m towards the development of the actual mine, for which they will own 51% - this does not sound like a great deal to me if ARS have to fund 76% of the development costs for the 49% they own. For me the only way I can see TM coming out of this with any credibility is if the resource expansion and mine life extension doubles the value of the asset. It’s possible I suppose, but ARS don’t receive the money until after this work has been completed.

‘Throughout the exclusivity period and the execution of the Binding Agreement, both parties are restricted from acquiring shares in each other, unless otherwise approved by their respective Board of Directors.’

Does this statement not suggest that ARS are worried that the deal will not be well received by the market and are concerned a low share price will present an opportunity for DOID to try and take over the company on the cheap?

Also the company has 80% of Beutong not 100% as some on here have been saying.

When you factor in over the last 2 weeks that the number of sells slightly out way the number of buys, I don’t think there is enough surplus of stock sold under 2.9p to enable a purchase of over 9 million shares at 2.9p. Now unless MM’s have been hoarding stock acquired from before the PPA announcement, I can’t see how this could be a normal purchase. I think like others on here that it’s connected to the large split sells that were going through previously and the shares have simply been moved to another account of a particular investor. On the other hand it might be a fat finger jobby and should have been 900,000 and if that’s the case, expect it to be cancelled.

I thought the last point was interesting, once we are producing 20MW at FY25, it looks like TG will then be looking to sell up:

Phase 1: Lesedi gas-to-power and solar PV project constructions starts 1H 2022; 2 MW from 2023, expanding to 10 MW from 2024. Mining life extended beyond August 2042. 10 MW solar production. 80% risk factor.
? Phase 2: Expansion of gas-to-power to 20 MW from 2025 to utilize 25 MW grid connection installed in Phase 1. 70% risk. Phased full field development: ? Phase 3: Field development and 90 MW OCGT power generation at Lesedi from 2028 to replace Orapa diesel fired generation1 . Alternatively, construction of ~150 km gas pipeline to Orapa to convert existing 90 MW diesel power. 50% risk factor. FID Jan 2026
? Phase 4: Development of remaining 2P reserves and 80% of 2C contingent resources expected to convert to 2P, ~50 MW power generation. Assume $US1.3m/MW. FID Jan 2028 ? Phase 5: Development of 3P reserves, sufficient for ~220 MW power generation. 20% risk factor. FID Jan 2030
? 70% sell down of Lesedi/Mamba at end FY25 prior to Phase 3 FID to fund full field development, 30% retained interest.

If it’s the pension fund providing the finance, to my mind it’s pretty obvious that a decent chunk of equity will be released, they will become partners and the financial benefactor in this project. I reckon 20 to 30% of the money needed will be by way of equity.

It reads to me like they are just going to build the 10MW, not 2MW scaling up to 10MW as was previously intimated.

I’m pretty sure Brad that both the company and the lender will look to getting 2MW up and running on the $10m before committing another $20m to get to 10MW.
Interesting in today’s RNS, I wonder if that is the anticipated level of dilution to secure funding:

Resolution 4 - Approval of 10% Placement Capacity



To consider, and if thought fit, to pass the following resolution as a Special Resolution:



"That, for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 7.1A and for all other purposes, approval be given for the issue of Equity Securities of up to 10% of the issued capital of the Company (at the time of the issue or the agreement to issue) calculated in accordance with the formula prescribed in ASX Listing Rule 7.1A.2 and on the terms and conditions set out in the Explanatory Memorandum."

I think the SP response to Monday's news has been a bit lame because investors are waiting to see how much equity is given away with this forthcoming $10 million finance package. If its the BOPF financing this, they are going to want to lower their current average. If we assume 25% will be equity funded and 75% loan, we could be looking at 50 to 60 million additional shares at around 3p. No doubt the board will also reward themselves for achieving that milestone. Personally I would be quite happy with that scenario.

The signing of the 10MW PPA was a huge milestone, not only for this company, but also for other potential gas to power producers within Botswana. Clearly the 2MW PPA signed previously wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. This PPA will act as blueprint for similar PPA’s going forward for the whole of Botswana. The fact that Tlou has been the Guinea Pig (being the first to develop and sign such an agreement) is why it was so painfully slow to finalise. In 4 or 5 years when the company applies for say a 50 or 100MW PPA, no doubt it will be broadly similar to the one that’s just been signed, hence why it was so important for the company and for the Botswana Government to get it right. Mondays announcement unlocks everything in my view, if the price stays at this level, I’ll be adding more.

The synergy does seems obvious with regards to Orapa, but also AA are exploring Hydrogen used as a mining fuel in South Africa.

http://www.angloamerican.com/investors/annual-reporting/hydrogen-power

I do wonder if AA gave Tlou the steer to go down the Hydrogen route.

BPOPF seems the obvious contender to me, but I do wonder if a 'partnership' with Anglo American is being negotiated.

I think he knows all he he needs to know about you!