Member Info for dougerboy

Haha Thordon! If it’s 100p n 1 year I’ll do a lap of your town square in my birthday suit! If it’s 100p in 5 years, I won’t - because it may well be!

I’ll take those numbers AJP! & looking forward to the next update from John. What is really really exciting here is that we’re only just moving off the start of what will be a great growth curve. Here’s hoping for a great week.
ATB

Hi AJP, I think, from what I can see, the deferred consideration was from 2017-2020. So that ship has sailed. For 2021 it all looking very positive isn’t it? Looking at 2020 full year numbers we need to add $3.5-$4M onto the 2020 number to around around $7M annual revenues to be at breakeven level with current cost structure and GM level of 35%. Given John Shaw’s confident outlook that seems highly for 2021. But I’m not bothered if it’s mid 2022. He did mention, though, during the 2020 results presentation that GM by product can vary widely, from 20 % up to 60%. Hopefully we’re selling loads of the 60% GM stuff!

Hi AJP, my interpretation is there is no additional deferred compensation due up to FY20 inclusive. Here is the key line:

“In addition, deferred performance related consideration will be payable to the Itaconix Stockholders, subject to the achievement of certain growth targets for the calendar years 2017 to 2020, based on 50% of incremental annual net sales above $3 million in 2017 and in excess of the prior year for 2018 to 2020 inclusive.”

Looking forward to an onwards and upwards trajectory this year and beyond. Will take out my original investment at some point and leave the rest for a long free ride.

Very interesting AJP. This also from their website:

“ At Independent Chemical, we partner with our customers to create the services needed – whether in custom packaging, particle sizing, custom synthesis, or stocking at locations in the US or Internationally.”

My money is on distribution given John’s previous indication of his desire to hold onto the manufacture reigns. All very exciting!

Great find. Who’s next? Unilever, Henkel, Reckitt Benckiser?

A great positive update from John. It would have been nice if the share price had stuck at the highs of today, but we got something far more important than that: an AFFIRMATION of the success of the company’s growth strategy. It was very very positive without over promising. My question even got answered first, which essentially revealed the new VP Ops will be responsible for delivering plant capacity planning up to existing physical limit. Also great to hear some months were already breakeven, and my gut feel is, with everything that’s going on, we can hope for a 2021 Revenue number of around $6M. I’m not bothered if it is a bit below that or (hopefully) over - it’s all part of the upward journey and the company’s growth strategy, on which it is NOW DELIVERING, with product going out the door in increasing volumes. Another particularly exciting moment (there were many) is getting the vibe from John on the passion this company has for NPD, and desire to lock-in their profitable and disruptive IP. Wonderful. Lastly he can’t/won’t say it, but they will have a five year view of revenue growth and profit. It would be great if it looked like this: 2021 $6M, 2022 $12M, 2023 $25M, 2024 $40M, 2025 $75M. I may be way off the mark thoughOther views?

I’m on it tomorrow itacon. John stated in the video last July the strategy was “make & sell” no licencing. Will be interesting to hear if there is any shift in that, though I doubt it because they know what a massive market competitive advantage we have, and wish to retain full & complete control of that. I hope my submitted question gets answered, which is:

“When would you expect to commit capital spend, to double/significantly increase existing plant capacity from current plant limit (equivalent I believe to ca. $15M sales), thereby further enabling the journey to the 5 year target of $75M sales, and can your existing physical site accommodate such increases?”

Yes Elsol, I’ll be getting out my calculator after results/forward view from the CEO. There will be bumps on the way for sure to my medium term target of 20p, but the great thing about this company is: we make stuff, we make product, product targeted towards industry dislocation(s), pushed on by regulatory and consumer drivers. And it seems our market penetration grows on an almost daily basis (thank you parob et al for the fantastic list).There are threats, of course, but I’m sure John Shaw will have them in his crosshairs.

Hadn’t seen that before AJP - some good stuff in there. What I hope we might hear or glean from next week is a sense of the Factory capacity increase timeline to take us beyond the current $15-$20M. With „$335M Rev Potential from current ingredients“ that’s a LOT of extra factory planning, if even half of those chickens come home to roost, over the next few years. Very exciting & hovering over the buy button, again!

Here‘s a recap, for any new investors on here, of some of the key points made by John Shaw in last July‘s video. Im REALLY looking forward to hearing where we are on our journey.

Key Points:

- "make & sell" ie no licencing

- "recognised leader in bio-based chemicals"

- "only producer of these types of polymers in the world"

- "$335M Rev Potential from current ingredients"

- "$75M Rev Target over next 5-10 years" "on existing formulations"

- non-phosphate detergents: "active projects $20M revenue potential" $5M revenue potential from NA alone on "formulations we're already validated in"

- once in, after lengthy selling cycle (3-4 years), there are "sticky revenues"

- "500-600 samples/year going into labs" supporting customer NPD

- "current capacity upwards of $15M"

- from Q&A part: "currently running 2 shifts with multi-million $ growth potential"

- "low capital spend requirements"

- "very few retail stores in NA that don't have our product"

- NA & Europe main focus (Asia still permits phosphate based detergents & lower consumer use of dishwashers)

Already submitted my investors question, the same one I emailed to John, who hasn’t had time to answer. I wonder why he hasn’t managed that ??...

Thanks guys that‘s a good start. Elemental per end of 2019 was believed to have around 150 customers. I’d love to develop an understanding of hard sales numbers eg. average revenue per customer - but that might be difficult to do as I don’t believe they publish results.

I see as an important clue/metric, as it might give us a revenue steer for their DMTR channel sales into the US (and vice versa).

One thing is for sure both management teams will have shared with each other a lot of that specific, by account/segment, revenue generating potential which has led to their exciting joint sales & distribution initiative.

Can anyone shed any light on Revenue/Profits of Elemental Machines or other aspects about their business size?

I’m not expecting a running commentary on a monthly basis from the board, which can sometimes achieve the opposite of the desired effect (I’ve been burned on VRS on non-revenue announcements which due to their volume lost currency).

So while our CEO will be for sure watching monthly numbers like a hawk as the business develops and grows, I am happy on the comms with quarterly updates, unless of course other RNSable events occur in between, which I wouldn’t rule out, given the space we operate in.

AJP, must have been from the space-time ripple of my email winging its way to John lol. Those buys got nice prices.

Who knows what’s going on in the background AJP (besides good organic growth) - time will tell. My medium term goal is 20p - if we get there quicker by other means, ok by me. Looks more like a twig shake though, than tree shake - only £13k of shares traded today so far.

Good question AJP! Possibly, but the honest answer is I don’t know. There’s operational stuff we don’t know on pricing, volumes, run-rates by products etc. etc., commercially sensitive a lot of it, which make that precise judgment difficult. But for sure it’s a question of WHEN we break-even & not if. Thereafter it’s a question of how far can profitable growth go...

A big clue for me is when next capital spend to increase plant capacity will occur and will advise if I hear from ITX re. my email enquiry on that point.

Thanks AJ. Here’s another interesting metric for us to consider. Croda global sales ca. £1.4Bn & no. of employees worldwide ca. 4000+ giving ca. £350k/employee.

Given our current staffing that metric would give us a chunky number - but of course there are lots of reasons why the direct comparison cannot yet be made at this precise point in time. In a couple of years though a 100 employee operation, with sales of £35M on that metric, and probably only still scratching the surface of the exponential growth we strive for, should be on the radar.

It’s a 5 year wait for me unless something happens before then. What’s the name of the Greek village OB?