Member Info for dougerboy

A whiff of something in the air? Another contract win coming?

Agreed Mike - if they are following the revenue growth curve, volumes will continue.

Hi AJP, yes good to know the stuff is still coming in - it will be interesting to see how much the inventory figure has gone up in the next set of numbers - along with a fair chunk of it hopefully translating into sales. On your other question, I avoid having a public view on any other posters - that’s just asking for trouble. All I would say is that anyone who is genuine and honest about declaring a position on the way up as they do it, should, in my book, be equally honest about declaring their position on the way down and why. So at some point - hopefully by ‘23 I’ll be able to say on here - as I’ve done in the past - my 20p by ‘23 has been reached and I’m taking some money off the table! Ultimately, though, it has to be the management that we believe and the long term prospects of the company, rather trusting too much what anyone on a board says.

Mikeinv - good question, I don’t have full tracking on their shipments so can’t answer that precisely, but 3 containers within in a matter of weeks still sounds pretty healthy. What I’d love to know is what 1kg of purchased Itaconic Acid translates to into Revenue $ of finished product and Kg amount of finished IA polymer product. The landed cost per Kg from China will have gone up for sure. But everyone is pretty much in that boat. I like to think given the huge amount of cereals/maize etc. (Feedstock for IA production) that the USA produces, some chemical plant there will be turning its attention to producing domestic IA sometime soon.

Been doing a little bit of digging and discovered that there have been 3 - as far as I can see - recent container shipments of Itaconic Acid received. One container on 4th October freight forwarder Expeditors International & 2 containers on 18th September freight forwarder JPAC Trading. All coming from Qingdao Kehai Biochemistry Co., Ltd.

A significant find Thordon. Dated 07 May 21 on the link & clearly plenty of stuff still happening at Nouryon. Top job, thanks!

Hi Guys the FTC sales, product management, & management team, will be pushing hard on not just this, but a wide variety of other industrial communications/RF initiatives. The senior management has a background on delivering successful sales underpinned/driven by manufacturing excellence. That translates into more new business with long standing customer relationships, of which this is one. Keep ‘em coming Richard & Team FTC.

CT You’ll find most of your answers here. Except one: where are we on the revenue growth curve timeline? But on it we are for sure.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/news/downloadResearchPdf/430664

I’m with Chilting on this. We can wring our hands in anticipation of whether it is $3M, $3.5M, or $4M in the second half. The real question (for me) is what will it be in 5 years time. If the revenue growth curve - which we all know about - delivers before then, fine. If not, I’m happy to wait!

Just back from work been too busy so missed the mini rise! So I’ll hang fire, so she goes up another 5% tmrw!

I’m buying more tomorrow baz

Nice one AJP, 43 by ‘23 has a better ring to it, you’re right! But I think I remember saying way way back on the thread I could see break even late ‘22 - which on current Gross Margins equates to ca. Revenue $8M (don’t recall exactly). The risk & FOMO on this company is how quickly they are moving along the $75M stated (from current formulations only) revenue curve. With 43p that is x6 our current market cap of £30M = £180M. If I was buying the company for £180M in 2023 I’d be looking for £20M Op. Profit/Year plus additional growth prospects (which we have) - BUT that level of profitability, whilst coming down the track, has a later year attached to it I think. So maybe 33 by ‘23 - though I’ll still settle for 20!

Here is the link

https://youtu.be/9ksKyvrPQU4

Yvon Durant talking about the genesis of Itaconix. From 6 years ago, but pretty interesting. Around 19:30 in, he talks about the crucial 99% yield they get off their patented itaconic acid polymerisation process.

Anyway, moving away from smelly pussy, I was having a look at the last annual report and note 22 to the accounts caught my eye. Management share options have a 3 year exercisable period, but only vestable (50% thereof) at 40p and the remainder on a prorata basis up to 100% at 55p. So maybe I’m a bit off with my 20p by ‘23 AJP, right enough! But let’s say 40p 3 years out from now, that’s roughly x6 current market cap, translating to ca £180M - a lot of share price growth between now & then (hopefully), and as a green ingredient company - now in established brands - I wonder where its share price will be in 10 years time, let alone 3. I did a selling strategy course a long time ago called “Power Based Selling” from the Holden Corporation - a brilliant course - which taught sales people how to identify “The Fox” in the company. I think our fox is Doc Durant - and I expect him to pull a few more rabbits out of the hat over the coming years, from the Itaconic Acid based polymer product roadmaps he and his team are working on.

Eh..., or maybe not. Much lower & im buying more.

Yep, I get that JD. I listened only to the q&a afterwards and I did hear in there some stuff which I hadn’t heard (or had forgotten!) eg. more than 1 packaging company; paints not a focus at the moment/too many other things happening; Solvay relationship not strategic/more of a legacy thing; licencing out IP, NO WAY - and China market will be served from existing facilities; Doc Durant working on other exciting things.

It would be nice to hear from the VP Sales Mona Manning - at least a sales pitch would be good!

jd I’ve seen enough slick dog & pony show over promising presentations in my time delivered by honed smooth presenters to know that the conservative under promising style of JS is not without merit at this stage of the company’s development. The real talking will be done when the next significant RNS drops. I would like to hear from the VP of Sales though, and also Doc Durant on his polymer vision for the future.

I think so AJP. Just caught up with some of the presentation & JS was going canny big time. There are 2 reasons for that: a) he is way behind on growth delivery b) he is ultra careful about protecting commercially sensitive growth and the release of associated information.

Itaconix ingredients are achieving market success & penetration - so I think it is (b), and you are right - there are a few aces to be played. So I’m still comfortable with 20p by ‘23.

Much obliged Thordon.