Member Info for dougerboy

That’s a pretty good steady as she goes update, in my book. And it is the product roadmap/pipeline of what is all still to come which is trememendously exciting.

I do enjoy a bit of detective work Wacca - but hats of to the real experts parob Thordon AJP et al

Anyway, here’s a bit more: I’ve discovered that Itaconic Acid Market pricing is around $1900/T and I reckon - based on 2020 full year numbers plus my calcs and assumptions (they may be way off!) that we maybe receive a container (22T in big bags) of raw material Itaconic Acid every fortnight. That equates to some 572T annually. We also know that the Newwave agreement guarantees we supply to them of 1M 1bs (ca 450T) of our finished product over 2 years (225T/year - probably backloaded). So volumes kind of stack up. What I don’t know is what 1000Kg input corresponds to in Kg output of Itaconix polymer. Happy to hear other takes on all of above!

In any case, it seems clear to me, with my calcs, this is another pointer to continued significant growth and factory capacity utilisation being at the forefront of ops management thinking. So I’m looking forward to the half year update and hoping for some snippets on:

1) factory capacity increase
2) split between own factory generated revenue and revenue from licencing agreements

Here’s the link to the IA price point:
https://www.scienceopen.com/document_file/15a2c30c-e29d-4784-93ac-24ed199d4a5c/PubMedCentral/15a2c30c-e29d-4784-93ac-24ed199d4a5c.pdf

I’m looking forward to our first major announcement on the BIoAsterix product line for packaging.

JS said this last year: “This collaboration is an important step for us to assess the commercial potential of our initial BIO Asterix additives. Although it is too early to consider the potential impact on revenues, I am optimistic that our bio-based ingredients will find valuable commercial use in biodegradable packaging in the coming years.”

Valuable commercial use...optmistic... I love it when our cautious understated CEO feels able to use those terms.

I see our Newwave tie up is delivering product into ALDI USA.
https://corporate.aldi.us/en/corporate-responsibility/supply-chain/california-transparency-in-supply-chains-act/ca-chemical-disclosure/

I wonder we sales into ALDI Europe might start?

Thanks faramog, I appreciate your thoughts. I like the BMN story - so I’ll be here for a while and I look forward I hope in my own small way to contributing to a positive BB discussion as and when.

Sorry faramog, i missed a bit; to answer the second part of your question: sell down strategy currently none, as I’m considering additing more to my 200k holding. Exit point: good question and not yet 100% sure, but given where we are just now I am comfortable with a 5 year timeline on delivery of the company’s vertically integrated vanadium strategy. I used to be in the precious metals business and saw and liked the vertically integrated business models of companies such as Umicore and Johnson Matthey. If other events happen in the meantime MY strategic timeline will of course be reviewed.

Hi Faramog at the moment I hold around 200k - I am a recent investor here - and am thinking of investing more. So I am genuinely interested in straight answers backed by reasoned argument from other LTH’s.

Thanks Bushy. If I may be so bold, what kind of holding do you have here and when/at what annual sales level do you see your exit point?

Thanks SmartInv though “ We do not have guidance on when we may release news to the market.” sounds a bit mysterious!

Nope Norton 850C. A well run gold company in a decent jurisdiction paying a decent dividend low debt and good outlook. I’m buying the dips - just have - and waiting for 30p.

Smartinvestment, that would indeed be a lovely trend indeed to see!

Thanks AJP. Now a wee challenge for any interested - to have a stab at our half year revenues and (if possible) why. I’ll have a go:

- full year 2020 was knocking on the door of 1/4 plant capacity utilisation
- we know that some months later in 2020 were better than break even and we can assume that trend has continued, given all the activities we know about
- I am assuming therefore all months are now breakeven as we continue repeat business (increasing) and add more new business
- I think we could on for 2/3 plant capacity utilisation for full 2021 which puts us on 2021 revs of $10M - which would be a massive increase. That will be second half loaded due to growth curve - so I’ll say for 1st half 2021 $4m - which will put a rocket under the a***e of the share price. But I’ll be just as happy with a 1st half around the $3M mark which means more of steady as she goes. I get things wrong often! DYOR
-

Nice one Thordon. Through your find looks like we have a connection to the middle east/Turkey: https://www.atamanchemicals.com/sodium-polyitaconate_u3004/

I would say so AJP. A wee slip there. Never done that myself lol

Morning guys it’s been quite a journey - all without ramping , which has been very refreshing. I like to hear different views on share price expectations, based on decent research and insight, rather than 50p by whenever etc. A lot of that information is available on previous company presentations in regard to the potential growth available. It makes great reading. A great Next key event for me is when JS talks about factory capacity increases. We know the current factory can support $15M in sales plus whatever outsourced under licence sales on top of that (that amount I don’t think we don’t know yet). The current significant rises are a reflection of what is now the rapid move - due to market adoption - along that capacity timeline and towards/beyond breakeven. 25p by 2022/23 was, based on research, a goal I thought achievable. But I think I might be wrong on that! As JS says, this is just the start.

Welcome aboard Panino. I’ve been here a while had a modest holding which was underwater for a bit and took the plunge late last year and stuck in (for me) a fair chunk and am now around 1.7M shares. Based on the GREAT work by parob, thordon et al & patt over on advn and others there is validation of a compelling business story. For me, key has been going through the company presentations, podcasts, interviews, and the like delivered by the CEO John Shaw - who has serious skin in the game . His delivery has been cautious, yet with understated unshakeable optimism through his belief in the company strategy of causing a dislocation in the targeted markets through a superbly strong product portfolio & roadmap, protected by IP, of which we know a lot, but which is probably still only the tip of the iceberg. Normally, I’d be checking out of here, having enjoyed the ride from 2.5p. But this is just the start.

Yep & the train is just leaving the station. Here a reminder of why I'm sure most of us are here. Wish I was a chemist though!

hTtpS://www.cbp.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/cbp/en/documents/project-reports/BioConSepT_Market-potential-for-selected-platform-chemicals_report1.pdf

Can‘t recall if this has been posted before, but gives a clear steer on what our VP Sales is spending her time on.

https://www.ropella.com/case_studies/Ropella_CheatesandChelatingAgents_Sales_VP_Sales_Itaconix_Case_Study.pdf

Stumbled on this, which is interesting, and it looks a Unilever Vendor database, on which Itaconix appears. Happy to stand corrected on that though. It’s a list which is an interesting who’s who in that industry.

https://emsapi-q.unilever.com/Flow/Help/LotLegalValues

Well Thordon, QFI, invented emulsified HFO alternative called MSAR and now BioMSAR well before that (it’s been an arduous journey - I’m almost back at B.E.) and i have everything crossed on that ship finally coming in.