Member Info for dougerboy

I’m going to try and do a bit more digging AJP. On this years expected numbers, I’m not sure, but given everything that’s happening and the new VP Ops being charged with capacity planning and product scheduling optimisation for different IA polymer recipes presumably, I could imagine that by the end of the year we are running the factory at 2/3 tilt. Anything above $8M will be, as we say in Glasgow, “ya dancer.” Just my opinion!

I agree Thordon. Meanwhile, I stumble on another part of the Itaconix delivery to market channel

http://walsh-assoc.com/suppliers/itaconix-corp/

I don’t recall seeing their name before, so apologies if it’s old news. Interestingly, on looking at Walsh’s website they seem to have major warehousing facilities. I wonder if that is a two way street...might be important as the business grows & grows & grows.

£1 a share would be lovely to get back to. Who knows, but it feels like we’re on a pleasant journey at the moment. I remember the lovely view from the heady heights of £1.40’s Would be nice to go back there. Let the journey at accompanying 7% yield continue.

EyeOB I think the company knows exactly what it’s doing and for that reason I personally am comfortable waiting for the half year update. I think - and JS alluded to this in the last interview I think - some months had already been breakeven and presumably some hadn’t. For me that growth I think continues with presumably some months now being better than breakeven and other months with sales lower than the best months. Given the overall size of the business - just now - he would therefore be making a rod for his own back he gave regular commentary, which at this stage would just fuel the AIM pump & dumpers

Unilever had better get their polyiraconate finger out then AJP! Lol

Just heading out on the motorcycle AJP - I'll need to give that some thought - really hard to say, as we are just at the start of the curve. i think - to use a Donald Rumsfeld quote: "there are things we know that we don't know, known unknowns." BUT John Shaw & his team I'm almost certain do. On that basis, any number I suggest wouldn't be nearly as good as the number JS has in mind, I'm sure!

Just picked up 25000 at 10.29p. I was thinking about Itaconix product offerings again, and it is rare to be able to say that this is still very much the start of the upward curve. Product is being shipped and sold to substitute environmentally harmful ingredients in the markets served by Itaconix, which are huge. But crucially, like renewable energy, we know our environmentally beneficial products and ingredients will be around, being made, and sold for decades to come.

Lovely AJP. The more I read & research the more I like. The competitive advantage which has been built over years of research, hard work, and investment into the positioning of Itaconix is now reaping rewards.

Apologies if this is old info (from 2019) but I hadn’t seen it before and it’s a worthwhile read showing the inter connectivity of the industry and affirms once more the superb positioning of Itaconix within it.

*Innovative solutions that help our customers improve their products, become more competitive and sustainable, and uncover new business opportunities are central to how we work,” said Charlie Shaver, CEO of Nouryon. “As partnership is the key to success, we are very pleased to add more organizations to our Imagine Chemistry network, including Unilever, one of our key customers.”*

https://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2019/01/30/nouryon-partners-with-unilever-investment-companies-and-startup-networks-to-accelerate-innovation-in-chemistry/

I see that AJP - massive. On my musings below I made a serious flaw: our ingredients are only a small % by weight of finished product (does anyone know?) - so I stand probably corrected on factory space pressure.

Great sleuthing work AJP. In one of the Solvay sheets I see a hint of revenues to tonnages: https://www.solvay.com/sites/g/files/srpend221/files/tridion/documents/PR-20171016-Eureco-Bussi-EN.pdf
Which gives ca. €250-€400/T. But I have no idea how that price point relates to our Revenues/T for the different polymer products we produce. Hopefully it is a lot more! It is meaningful though in that it attaches a physical quantity to a revenue, from a chemical ingredients player in the industry. €200M/500.000 T = €400/T. The tonnage is a lot of product and equates to nearly 10000T/week. That’s a lot of trucks. At those tonnages Solvay are probably moving a lot of product - across all their product range - by barge/ship/rail.

So my question is: what physical tonnages are we geared up for from our own factory, how much demand (tonnage) can that satisfy, and how much demand (tonnage) will need to be satisfied through IP licencing?

It feels like our factory in NH (31000 sq. ft. can soon become too small!) is the product roadmap validator, producing NPD (new product development) formulations/initial volumes & trusted licenced partners picking up bigger volumes.

But I may be complete wrong! All food for thought and IMO.

From the 2020 Annual Report:

19. Leases
The Group leases all its facilities from which it operates. The headquarters, production, and main offices are
located in Stratham, NH, USA. The facility is approximately 31,000 square feet and the lease expired in
September 2019. Management renewed the lease for a 5-year extension, through to September 2024.

DD77 I know feeling - im the same. A slightly higher average though lol! A while back I said I had my eyes on a target of 20p by 2022 I think. That is still reasonable I believe and the way the momentum has been going it might arrive sooner than that. A key metric for me is where the company sees its capacity utilisation now and near term. Given everything that is going on, they could be marching very quickly towards 2/3 capacity utilisation, which would equate to Annual sales of $10M. So I am eager to hear or pick up signals or a sniff of operational capacity increasing. For the detectives out there, that could be new kit getting ordered, additional premises/warehousing/new hires etc. Long story short, I’ll review again when we hit 20p. just my opinion & everyone needs to form there own.

Thordon those numbers look similar to what patt was saying over on ADVFN. A bit optimistic in my book, but if we go for an EV of half of that postulated by 2025, we are still on a x10 valuation from where we are now. Happier of course if patt‘s x20 is correct!

Global shipping pollution now in the crosshairs on Radio 4. no mention of MSAR yet. Where is Mike & Jason‘s PR?!

Smartinvestment, given what we know, and the long term growth trajectory we have only just embarked on, many would say you‘ve still managed to arrive at the party very early!

Yes EyeOB. Also just listened to John Shaw‘s interview from today. Very very interesting and more exciting times ahead. For someone who is by nature refreshingly cautious and does not overhype to say „certainty of growth“, that to me means he is certain 2021 numbers will be/are showing significant growth. I‘m now contemplating a $10M revenue number for 2021 which equates to 2/3 of current plant capacity. Certainty of growth also means they are/have extensive product roadmaps lined up.

Yes sure feels like something. Ownership is pretty interesting: 48.78% owned by Polonsky family members & their foundation. Premier Miton also in their with 5.31% (since Nov'19). Maybe there is light at the end of the litigation tunnel which has dragged on - those things always end of getting settled/sorted & the company has been planning for such. So I'm putting in another £5k. The dividend has been solid through all the ups (not many!) and downs, which is some comfort.

Yes interesting we are getting a podcast so soon after 2020 results presentation. Given EVERYTHING that is happening, he may be a harbinger of good news - or an indication thereof. I’d love to hear an update on VP Ops activities.

Seems like something good is brewing. I wonder what...