Member Info for dougb189

Looks as if Mr.G survived Monday’s carnage with his 8M holding nicely matching the remaining Spreadex hedge. One very cool dude.

Lol, poor auld Harry & those dead hands :

‘… The MMs are playing with fire and I hope they get hauled in… The FCA are actively monitoring the current shenanigans after floods of complaints over the last couple days… Despite this MMs decide that they will block the automatic execution of the Nominal Size (NMS) trades of 10k shares by spoofing the SETSqx system…’

Harry ‘sits on hands’ fails to recognise that the MM’s are Not obligated to sell at NMS with on-line dealing, nor that the MM’s already appear to have responded to FCA enquiries.

Harry ‘sits on hands’ ’ fails to see that the NMS has been significantly upgraded to 75k which the MM’s will honour, if and when approached correctly.

Harry ‘sits on hands’ seems unaware of the correct approach to access NMS.

Harry ‘sits on hands’ then fails to recognise that currently it’s rather foolish to chase the NMS on the Ask as the actual buys is on-line are significantly below the lowest NMS Ask (again from JBER).

Harry ‘sits on hands’ might then wish to learn what the significance of the NMS Bid price is for a stock in free-fall.

It now appears that the FCA have dealt the MM’s a reprimand, with the nominal trade size having increased significantly from 10k to 75k.

LLnP., shorts on Spreadex reduced slightly from 48% to 43% whilst the Canadians shorts doubled c.4 weeks ago and have stayed constant since then. Suspect that the large short is generated by the house & tied to one of the smaller BH.

Could be an Rns tomorrow which might then shed some light.

Probabilities though seem to lie with external events centred on Prem and which then very likely benefited the house.

AM could post an intermediate production update at any time, so the risk for Pi’s to go short would be too great.

Perhaps an unfortunate sequence of events but also perhaps not :

30M distressed sell is likely from accounts tied to spread bets which was also tied into Prem so would be pretty heavy margins to carry, for most Pi’s.

30M sell though could perhaps be a combination of conversions + fees from a bond holder looking to vacate. Which then suggests some positivity as the 30M were then bought out, in a lump sum which takes serious conviction. The last time we had direct transfer of bonds to a shareholder was immediately prior to Mr.G then floating his TR1. The question then on the table tonight is, has Mr.G or someone of a similar approach, then gone and done it again, buying directly from the bond holder ?

Genghi., I was also brutal last December with Blackstout’s ‘£16/share from 350M shares’ when a blind man could then of seen that there would be significantly more shares getting rinsed.

Courtesy of my being brutal then, he now amends his estimate to 1.2B shares, so a lesson learnt the hard way perhaps.

But I then picked up another half-dozen serious errors from yesterday’s latest script. Was then immediately assessed as being on a par with a B-movie script. It did not make comfortable reading. Guessing it then picked up c.70 recommends ? That’s then giving me a lot of confidence in the game here.

All hinges Trujack, on the liquidity. If there’s a market then the BH will happily take their conversions at 1p, 2p, 3p or 6.75p. Did think that your 12.2M sell [3.1p] at almost $500k was in part facilitated by dear old Stas when all last week he was promoting AM’s good side, which was a bit unsettling on 2 fronts (A) the sudden change in direction & (B) it was way too early to start any promotions as production rates are still an unknown. It was then deduced late last week that there might be small bond holders then taking advantage of the liquidity / sentiment that Stas created and at which point the bill ($500k) then arrived for converting of some previous bonds. Coincidence ? Of course, but why on earth assist when there are still several weeks to wait.

Lol, but this is one stock where it pays to drive the sentiment down and so keep the bond conversions at the barest minimum.

Blackstout’s 7 pages of almost B-movie script, was very quickly washed out by the chattering classes and so contributed little to sentiment / liquidity.

We all then unfortunately got side-swiped with external events, most likely from Prem but with the c.30% drop there was still some decent buying pressure to clear the 30M sold shares.

Lol, so several peeps now crying over the spilt-milk. The very same chaps who recently decreed that any rebelling against AM at the AGM was a no no. The damage is now done. Own it. The shorts have won the day, but the game is far from over.

1p then equals 100p

After the consolidation.

Peeps can perhaps start comprehending why AM then went for 1000:1.

‘Trading froth’ appears to have originated from spreadbets.

Some peeps probably exposed on PREM’s fund raise & then received margin calls.

The 30M at 6% is then outside a TR1 holding threshold so looks like multiple accounts received margin calls. Not nice when it happens. Hopefully Mr.G was not involved but if so that he then bounces back quite quickly.

No sympathy though for those newbies on here now also with over-exposed spreadbets as that’s where most of the current bb noise comes from. Best ignored.

Most LTH are generally imv of similar ilk to myself, sad auld moaning geezers all lamenting some fairly decent sized losses but all still got one eye open for the production upgrades. Waiting patiently, for various opportunities.

Worst case scenario ? & i reckon that might be us then using the offered $7M from Anavio at today’s VWAP.

Best case scenario ? & AM takes Anavio’s offered $7M But at previous conversion rate of 6.75p. Which would then end all the nonsense and put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Lol, but only Posted 10 days ago :

dougb189 Posted in: COPL Price: 3.25. No Opinion

RE: Exxon Mobil16 Jun 2023 20:59

There is still always a wee bit of inherent speculation Antha ! But thanks on the rec. Still quite a few known-unknowns (production levels / JV / dilutions) & known-knowns (workovers / GGS) to then ponder over but hopefully we have seen the last of the unknown-unknowns eg. further plumbing issues. Reckon that there’s not much liquidity left in the stock & will take a week or so to then clear today’s 25M. Then expecting the MM’s to hit it hard, as per any illiquid stock. Keep some dry powder.

==============

Lol. So do NOT put me in the same camp as ‘middle England’. This Pi does NOT believe the JV nonsense that repeatedly states ‘it’s happening next week’. IMO it has always been about production & stock liquidity. After GGS and THEN it could be a JV, but still reckon AM could go solo.

It just doesn’t get any clearer than :

“…Reckon that there’s not much liquidity left in the stock… Then expecting the MM’s to hit it hard, as per any illiquid stock…. Keep some dry powder…”

Was Always on the cards that the MM’s would hit this hard. It’s an illiquid stock, even outwith the support given to it last week by Stas & Blackstout, as peeps just don’t trust the set-up. As and when production picks up then should see that targeted August 12p, assuming there are no further hiccups / bbq’s.

Keep. Some. Dry. Powder.

“.. the bondholders are making a massive loss selling at 2.25….”

Lol, so no mention then of the $140,000 fees that the BH picks up…

Reminded of Blackstout’s badly written b-movie script.

You can hear margin calls on here almost everyday..

there’s always a fresh turn-over of new Pi’s on here that having bought heavily into spreadbets then immediately start shouting any negativity down, as their margin calls get phoned to them. Those with spreadbets can easily be read on here. Just follow the bitter screams.

Peeps holding their own shares, should hopefully see a nice recovery. Once production is verified.

The sp was always going to get thrashed, till the initial GGS comes on line.

May production figures could perhaps help & off-set this, but with AM again still holding onto last month’s production logs until the very last moment, then it doesn’t sound as if there’s much confidence to be gained there.

Any June figures would sadly be taken with a pinch of salt ; there’s a horrendous catalogue of previous ‘misquoted’ production flow rates, which then all failed to match the official log figures.

Fingers crossed there’s been no more bbq’s.

“.. AM cant award himself his own salary so this goes to the new board independents to define….” hence quite a ballsy move. Suggests that there’s quite a lot of confidence in then letting the production speak for itself.

An interesting couple of months ahead. Hopefully no more bbq’d prairie ducks.

Ballsy move then leaving an even split; the 2 independents Chenery & Richardson & the 2 existing players AM & Cowan. Might see some fresh inputs on the MDA.

Will be spitting feathers if a seat is given to the man behind the non-stop placings..

Did try suggest that he puts Liz on the hot seat.

Lol. A real head-scratcher:

“X” to get “Y” its…its’. …resources to then get % reserves ?

“.. ya know here’s “A”, “B”, “C” and “D” they’re all part of that and its got steps in it..” …4 main Fed Deep / CC strata ?

So with the intricacies in deciphering the ‘non-complexities but jigsaw puzzle of negotiation phases’ then reading between these rather complex lines I'm left wondering.. just how many delineation wells will be required ? & that the earlier suggestion of a ‘staged JV’ might then at least pick the pace up in addition to sharing the risk costs of Fed Deep.

Lol, but Someone put in a wee cheeky bid on the books today, for 2.5M at 3.0p which then got taken away at end of day. It’s possibly it Might get entertained by a small bond holder & again it might not. Should BH decide to cash in (market is Very bearish) then picks up $93,000 plus those conversion fees (last calculated at $140,000 per converted bond) so still gives a small surplus of c.$73K to the BH.

Either way & it points at their being a healthy appetite.

“… If this GGS fails then Copl is Toast...”

Not necessarily so.

IF the 10,000+psi upgrades fail, then we know the field operates comfortably at 2000 psi and its corresponding flow rates of 2000 bopd as seen August 2020. We know that at one point the field handled 6000 psi so in a worst case scenario we could occasionally still blib the throttle, so clearing out those gas bubbles that have created the occasional bbq.

Slightly longer time frame then required to pay off the debt but still totally feasible.

Mal., Hopefully that scenario would then lead to a bidding war ? Good question though..when ? Disagree that suspension is best way forward as AM has not yet built in any sentiment. Would suggest that we get away from SETSqx and onto the SETS platform. It’s currently controlled quite brutally by 1 or 2 MM’s with JBER usually in the lead & so are often seen to be given fraudulently signals ; all day bulk selling then switching to the top of the Bid at 4pm, which is a con.

As per Wookie’s estimate, 2500 bopd by end of year, will be very poor, resulting in further dilutions, whilst Pi’s are then covering the lenders costs. Hopefully 2500 bopd by the end of August.

Y99.. I’ll stick with Edmund Fitz’s January calc’s of an August sp… 12p (tied into development costs for Fed Deep).

Leew, the Fed Deep’s complexities then perhaps suggest that no JV will jump in off the back of 3 reconditioned wells (3 wells at 100 bopd each, which somehow proves up 2B bbls?!) hence my argument for caution in the Fed Deep development, as AM has v.good form for then getting retail to cover the costs. Also well known is that AM’s standard m.o. is to go full-on with delineation of any field, hence the earlier suggestion that 16 wells might be being considered. I did clock your positive $70 Poo & had crossed my fingers that Saudi takes it higher.

FF, you would have to be a fool to believe that shorts should be banned. And seeing that you are obviously not.. well then, that raises a few question marks.. lol. Good luck though bud.

In its simplest form, to ban shorts is then suggesting that corruption or greed or fraud, does not exist. Yet we have clear proof that the high street banks act fraudulently, that the Bank of England acts fraudulently and that even HM.gov.uk acts fraudulently (ok, we already knew but then most don’t directly tie that to the banking system).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60561679

The whistleblowers that reported the serious fraud in the rigging of Libor rates then got imprisoned on a minor charge whilst those orchestrating & permitting the fraud were left in place to keep running the UK banking & HM.uk.gov financial departments. The whole system is corrupt. Hence shorts are a necessary evil in my book.

Shorting COPL at the moment for those sitting on decent margins ? Profit margins made from say the January sp of 16p or from last year’s TW suggestion to short at 26p then the prospect of any bounce at 3p is in no way intimidating. ‘Shorts closing’ ? but that’s foolish. A comfortable ceiling at 6.75p when zillions of warrants get made available in addition to the conversion rate being met in addition to most of the 2023 Pi’s quietly departing, is then well within the long-term shorters stop-limits.

The ‘simple maths’ (for the mf as below) then shows a small 10% error when using 2000 bopd & $50.4M revenue, as 2000 bopd will not occur until next month or perhaps August & at which point the $52.87 hedge will have kicked in. The loss of 10% / $5M for the quoted 2000 bopd, would hopefully be compensated by a corresponding increase in the sentiment.

That leaves the next 4 to 8 weeks period flow rates. A good starting point as per leew : ‘June = ? Say 1450 = $ 36.5m revenue’ but July still gets a wee bit crucial as the first 947 bopd are at $52.87/bbl & only 500+ bopd is c.$70/bbl. A wee bit tight but IF a 10% monthly increase can be maintained until GGS is online, then should hopefully scrape through without that massive dilution that Anavio’s offered $7M would bring.

The maths for the Fed Deep are more complicated:

‘.. An estimated 2 billion barrels or more worth of oil has been discovered deep under Natrona & Converse counties in Wyoming. .. Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited (COPL), commissioned a consultant, Ryder Scott Company, to look at the feasibility of getting at that black gold… Their findings suggest that only a fraction of that oil is recoverable with current technology…”There’s really a misunderstanding between resources and reserves,” Arthur Millholland, COPL’s president, and CEO, said during a call with investors on Monday. It's not just about sucking the oil out of the ground. Pressure must be created to do this. The oil is located deep - deep down. The math on how to accomplish providing that much pressure for pumping at that depth is the issue. This is where it gets difficult with today's current drilling and extracting techniques..’

For the Pi’s hoping to extract some decent sp / mc value using a decent Profit-Earnings ratio, this then gets scuppered IF the Fed Deep maths then requires a significant chunk of the mf profit to initially fund it (be cautious of “3000 bopd horizontal wells”) & with any mf profit furthering expensive drills, the sp is again sliding horizontally across the floor. Would AM then be content with a mf producing 5000 to 7000 bopd and seeing the profit paying off the lenders & so then prop up the PE, or would it again just be full-on… ?

That brings a big question mark to leew’s thinking that the JV is ‘not a last throw’ ie. not necessarily required. The maths suggests otherwise. It shows that AM can do this alone but probably at further cost to the Pi. & that whilst he comfortably retains c.10% on any future options packages, the retail might yet again be funding it. A few more months then imo for (1) earning nice profit from mf & (2) finding out what the next stage of financial planning incurs..