Member Info for dougb189

Lol, but some called it correctly & some took childish umbrage :

“..dougb189. Price: 5.375. RE: Gooze9 May 2023 19:57

Will be interesting to hear Mr.Goozee’s thoughts on the upcoming votes. A wee bit unfortunate perhaps with the timings, Equity having been acquired on the 25th, & then the 1000:1 announcement 3 days later… 13 million votes would certainly make a strong comment..”

A fairly balanced yet contrary opinion then, that was made on the day when the RNS news was released of a TR1 holder acquiring 3%+. One could also surmise that it was Mr.G had been buying complete blocks of bond conversions as seen by the earlier transactions of 2,447,980 buys & hence the sp of 5.75p for the last of his purchases [3 days to then process TR1].

Unbalanced was then the Llyweless one’s response, who amusingly posted loud umbrage that a lowly Pi inhabiting a LSE bb, could post prophetically ‘as a Warren Buffet from a bedsit’’ and declare a TR1 holder as being “unfortunate with the timings”.

& so where have the Llyweless one’s daily rants against all contrary opinions now disappeared to ? Absolutely no doubt that the sad angry troll, the Bloydwnn of the Valleys, will be posting its nonsense again, the moment the sky has even a whiff of light blue.

“Disagree though that the churn is nearing completion”

Still reckon that the ramptastic crew can facilitate further conversions..

Misinformation all round. But generally (as per Bob’s assessment) is balanced. ie not flip-flopping.

‘..each bond is $200k.. conversion price is 6.75p. These two fundamentals are fixed… each bond is worth 2.5M shares & this fundamental is therefore variable..’.

This is Not a variable and the conversion price is Not 6.75p. The conversion price is always set as a US$ figure & is currently set at $0.0817 and so each bond will always give 2,447,980 shares when converted. The 6.75p figure is just a reference given. The variable is the interest/fee for this conversion.

Totally agree with Blackspout’s ‘that COPL never saw the highly damaging situation’ either in the excess shares issued for fees or of BH possibly shorting.

Disagree though that the churn is nearing completion.

Would indeed be beneficial to the sp Tiburn.

For me there’s a slight possibility of cash flow concerns over the next two months, so a highly critical period till the GGS on-line & producing sufficient to then see full completion of the mf project. Perhaps two to four $M would see us thru.

Should AM then step-up and cover this, then why not also start on the horizontals. As will still take several months before the interest payments can get addressed by the mf.

‘behind the drop’ which possibly ties in with Shouston’s recent query.. ‘is the recent new board director, supplied by Anavio, a force for good or bad ?’

Coincidence #1, Anavio installs a new director & within a short period (pun if you wish) Anavio do an ‘internal risk assessment’ which then results in them reducing their exposure to 27%.

Coincidence #2, AM sells off his beach-side condo & pockets $16M.

Coincidence #3, the only returns on COPL are via shorts &/or the bonds.

Each bond costing $160k giving an immediate principle value of $200k pegged currently at 6.75p / 8.017c returning c.2.5M shares via bond conversion plus 7.5M shares via conversion fees & interest. Approximately 10M shares for each bond, at recent sp of 2p / 2.5c then gives £200k / $250,000 or put simply, a $90000 return on each bond. On the broad assumption that COPL may be burning thru cash And that AM then commits his available $16M to prop up the company by acquiring 100 bonds, at today’s conversion rates, he then stands to pocket $9M just on conversions alone..

Outrageous of course, as any new bonds will then see the conversion rate re-jigged for a fourth time, say perhaps to 2p or 2.5c, which then generates $200,000 / $0.025 = 8M shares, an increase of 5.5M shares each bond or an increase from 10M to 15.5M shares each conversion + fees. An additional 33% in shares. And at which point AM would then be looking at $12M profit in the above scenario.. should he be so inclined.

One does indeed wonder on Anavio’s ‘internal risk assessment’.

Of course the video is Not false, the units are being loaded for despatch and AM is accepting them for delivery. 24hrs on the road & so should now be in Wyoming.

False is just the eejits on here who are then unable to recognise what is being shown to them.

“..Great to see Arthur out their in Wyoming overseeing the delivery..”

which sadly sums up rather well, some peeps blissful ignorance towards assessing what is factual & what is somewhat cobblers.

Or are there indeed conifer forests & a B&Q depot parked next door to Atomic..

Or via the SL.

All hinges on the next 2 months now that the hedges will kick in.

Previously was once a month conversions but now is almost once a week. The BH like these prices And they like this bb’s foolish ramping. There then could be further Dilution c.1.2B to 2.0B but which is already pencilled in.

It only though gets really really painful, if AM then uses the additional $7M that was offered.

& so resets the 6.75p conversion price and at which point..

the dilution really goes thru the roof.

“ $12.4 + $13.2 at todays share price is how many more shares to issue? ”

At today’s prices that will be an added 1,279,128,384 shares.

Each bond currently raises : 2,447,980 + 7,545,210

Or near as damn it, 10M shares each bond.

Then x 128 bonds.

Not too shabby considering 9 wells put were then put off-line to help enable their plumbing to be upgraded to handle 10,000psi.

August 2020 and field produced at an average of 2013 bopd across the month, with the original plumbing then handling up to 6000psi.

Should again see a significant step-change in the bopd.

DNFIU. lol.

Morning Tiburn, as per last week and thought that Anavio were perhaps re-allocating funds for external dealings as is generally a bear market throughout and ripe for turning. Could be another holder but that would require holdings notification so perhaps is possible this week. Current risk assessment ? And would be watching for any additional bh activity but that all seems settled. Then just needs a decent update on latest field ops, which should then get the ball rolling.

I’d be concentrating on aiming for 2500 bopd by end of August, to then meet the analysts target of EOY revenue and therefore paying back c.$20M to the SL / BH. Any additional news is then a major bonus. Fingers crossed bud.

Sadly, I suspect that’s correct, that there is more attention from official quarters. Could possibly be linked with the NMS value having been increased from 10k on Monday up to 75k on Tuesday, which may suggest that words have been spoken.

Unfortunately though that then counters the argument of there having been forward sold shares. Provisionally there are 14M shares entering the market on Tuesday followed by another 44M entering the market on Thursday & if the ‘forward-sold’ argument is indeed tenuous then we might still see a further ripple or two this week.

Then indicates that we need a nice update on June’s bopd (similar to the May bopd figures early ‘unofficial’ update on the 5th June) which would perhaps assist to offset any concerns. Specifically, any concerns that the smaller BH might now be carrying.

Any investigations are a double-edged sword, least of which are AM’s catalogue of errors.

“.. Anavio disposed of the Common Shares for internal risk purposes..”

Immeadiately has one considering if Anavio are now on a similar par with young Ash & his belated risk assessments: only a few short weeks ago and was loud proclamations of ‘I’ve voted yes for all the resolutions’ & which now appears to be a source of deep regret. Are Anavio in the same boat ? Or…perhaps there is a further risk that Anavio might be making space for allocation of further bonds, from the earlier additionally offered $7M. Which would then imo be really quite dire for LTH.

On a positive, then ‘internal risk purposes’ do not appear to be managed by hedges.

Soz Tiburn but DBH was in error on every statement in there :

1. There are 63 + 68 bonds outstanding. 131

2. There are still a minimum of another 4 bond holders in the system : outstanding holders is quoted at 5 for 2027 & 5 for 2028, so there’s at least another 4 players.

3. Each bond is converted at 6.75 p / 0.0817c

4. Only the interest is VWAP & that is mostly converted to date. The interest at VWAP is correct but there are still significant amount of bonds already converted that have to have the fees paid.

The question mark, though is what are Anavio doing.. and similar to yourself I think they might be loading up, but IF so then they should release an RNS for TR1. There is though also a lot of external influences similar to Monday, where I suspect Anavio might be tempted to cash in some chips, to then enable external buying for ‘distressed stocks’.

Nice posts Unnd but suspect that your estimated 1.5B to 2.0B total shares is a wee bit high. The number of shares from the conversion fees per bond can possibly be extrapolated from the Feb 24th figures, and so even IF we get fully rinsed by the remaining 131 bond conversions (I suspect we will not, in line with Mr.T’s analysis), then we should be closer to 1.2B than your high estimates..

Doesn’t quite double your targeted 32p but I’d still be v.happy reaching that figure.

Nothing is certain Pilot, there will be further conversions done but hopefully is restrained. Pi’s suggesting there will be a “JV next week” only adds to further dilution.

1B shares might be a good figure to aim for.

As would Anavio issuing an RNS for the 8% share float that’s just been added. Nowt is certain.

We hopefully have less than 1 month prior to an update on GGS. So indeed possible that BH are collecting.

Pilot., the sad fact is, that effectively it is the bonds that are the ‘free shares’ (& not the conversion fees) so the bonds can literally be sold at any price. Assuming there is Liquidity.

The original bonds cost the BH $156,000 & they then picked up $140,000 in fees for doing the conversion. They then only need slightly above $16,000 from each bond. These bonds are then effectively all free shares to the BH.

It therefore pays the LTH to drive out the sentiment reducing the liquidity so that conversions of the outstanding bonds then sees the BH with negative equity.

Every time peeps like young Ash come on here and loudly sell the “..gazillion barrels OIP & gazillion $$$’s of Carbon Capture..” all they are then doing is promoting further dilutions of the BH free shares. If there ain’t no news then just keep it zipped. IF and When the good news arrives, there will then hopefully be something put aside to take some of the outstanding bonds off the market & so reduce the overall dilutions. Sadly though after Monday’s big churn, we now have a gazillion new traders who now all think this a wonderful price to keep buying at & totally fail to realise that the BH will happily take advantage of gullible enthusiasts.

Hopefully Ash recovers. Used to be a big fan of DL, got 1st 10-bagger from his RRE when stuck off-shore & lazily browsing the Share Risers. Worth a punt and ended up with a real nice wedge. 6 months later & put 100+k into LGO & it then also 10-bagged. Thought it was a winning combo.. Lady Luck & DL. He disappeared for a couple of years (suspected it was his daughter’s anti-oil influence) & later reappeared in several miners. Lady Luck then seemed to have departed & DL was once-too-often, also quickly departing. As stated on here many times, is I now always put TW at one end of the table & the CEO’s at the other, balanced like. Ash will hopefully learn & recover. Guessing though from what I read, that he’s still a decade or two, short.

The ‘free shares’ is quite a convoluted equation Stas,

Its so embarrassingly beneficial to the BH that AM has now stopped referencing the value given to each converted bond. Previously in Q1, it was noted that each bond conversion then picked up $140,000 in fees, which included 19% interest.

Using the last known reference of $140k & the recent 5-day VWAP 2.5p / 3.125c then a possible figure of 4,480,000 shares is now being issued for each new converted bond so a possible 80.6M additional shares from this morning’s conversions.

It then puts a wee bit of a mockery on Blackstout’s estimations of 1) 1B shares total & (2) the 6.75p threshold that the bond holders seek.

Will try work out a more up to-date price for each new bond conversion and at which point I’ll slip it quietly into a post. There are still some eejits around who believe the shorts are again bailing out, but imo there’s still a wee bit further to go prior to the BH then holding negative equity.