Member Info for DonaldTrumpsWig

Not sure whether to laugh or cry. How has it come to pass that a company on the cusp of a paradigm shift in cancer care has had to bend over and flog its shares for the bargain basement price of 50p. ?

How is it possible that we have diluted to such an extent that the current SP at the end of C7 is a fraction of what it was before the trial even began. ?

If it was the best price the ii's would offer what do they know that we don't?

Sorry if I sound ungrateful, but I didn't take part in the REX offer as I already have a significant holding of 50p shares, problem is, I paid well over a quid for them.

AS and the board have to take a long hard look in the mirror this morning. For the last 20 years, their wages, pensions. share options, bonuses, healthcare, mortgages, school fees etc have been paid for by me and others like me. In return, and like a reverse midas touch everything they have touched so far has turned to manure, ELISA, BAMS, LFT, Animal Health, the list goes on.

Now, like graduating students, they have to step, blinking into the sunlight, and accept that the bank of LTH's is closed and they have to start paying their own way by generating revenues and profits, an alien concept I know but something they have singularly failed to do in the last 20 years. The 'not boosters' strategy has failed miserably.

Let's be frank, the science, the real value, has not been created by Avacta, they are merely the custodians of the work of Bill Bachovin and Prof Tomlinson with the single job of bringing that science to commercialisation. Results so far? on the surface brilliant, but for reasons I do not understand, professional healthcare investors say not so much, in fact they say 50 per share.

Any peripheral costs that are not directly linked to this pipeline should now be cut. For example, do we need White City for a trial that is taking place in the USA? Or is it just another vanity project?

If the results are as good as we believe/hope then it is more important than even that a laser like focus is applied, firstly, for the benefit of cancer sufferers and secondly for the long suffering planks like me that have invested money (that wasn't gifted from investors but was earned from actual revenues and profits) in the belief that one day I might live to see an inflection point that actually goes upward and not downwards.

Thanks GMCC

A perfectly reasonable 'cold light of dawn' reflection that might actually be close to how this plays out.

Touk - 'The reason for the CR right now is because Al is going to have to publish C7 data next month and like it or not the data is not going to demonstrate the efficacy that we all want it to'

Are you being deliberately thick Derek? You do know that P1a (of which C7 is the final part) was never designed for efficacy? The patients in all cohorts were specifically selected as 'dox naive' as dox was never the recommended agent to treat their cancer.

Any efficacy data is a secondary finding, a bi-product if you like and we should all be delighted for those patients that have benefitted unexpectedly.

P2 is being designed to target first line dox specific cancer types and this is where we can really begin to see the true efficacy of AVA6k

I appreciate many of us are disillusioned at the moment but perhaps we should all reflect how the sentiment (and the SP) will change when CC and Bill Tap et al start updating us on real STS case studies, involving real cancer suffers at MSK

Interesting theory Reaper and just to add, I remember reading somewhere (don't have time to check) but I'm sure that there are balance sheet requirements for a NASDAQ listing.

Perhaps the fire sale raised enough cash to get us past the required level?

Sorry missed your post last night PL.

I think the BOD have made it patently clear that they are hopeless at running multiple strategy's. Time for them to focus on one, get it right then move onto the next one.

We don't need reminding (but perhaps they do) that their scatter gun approach over 20+ years has resulted in not one single asset getting to market to be sold for a margin.

If yesterday's shambles does nothing else I hope it reminds them that us SH's are no longer prepared to fund their science projects.

We want swift results for both ourselves and cancer sufferers alike.

Getting boring now OZ, you've made your position clear (about 50 times). Time to take the afternoon off before you have a breakdown.

Good post Rory

Absolutely agree that the time for woolly platitudes and 'corporate guff talk' is over.

AS has to accept that after yesterday he and his board have lost the high ground and are now speaking to SH's from a position of mistrust.

All comms need to be accurate and contain explanations of not just what they are doing but why. Stupid mistakes appear to have been made and they now have an uphill battle to regain the confidence from SH's that they are actually in control of what they are doing.

Perhaps I am speaking for myself but I feel they have to completely simplify their strategy and focus exclusively on the AVA/Pre/Cision programme and nothing else.

Progress on this is all I want to hear about. No more DX acquisitions, new offices etc etc laser like focus only please.

How strange that the comprehensive notes in the TP link haven't been more broadly publicised by the company.

Unless I've missed it, I'm not aware that they have published anything on their website or even a simple RNS to update us long-suffering LTH's that new information was available.

Lot's of new and relevant updates contained which could have avoided a lot of teeth gnashing if SH's had been steered towards it at 16.45 last night

WYN - it's getting really boring using your D-Geeman account to attack myself and other posters just because your 'Wyndrum' account is getting all it's posts deleted.

Perhaps you should ask yourself why people are reporting them in the fist place? Is it because they are terminally dull and a repeat of the (nearly) 9000 posts you have posted already?

Maybe try to talk about something new and move the discussion forward??

It will be a relief to get the last couple of weeks out of the way and then the focus can return to the trials and the science, with no immediate need to discuss distressed financing.

The BOD have a lot of shareholder trust to re-build and they absolutely need to up their game in terms of comms, timelines and the somewhat random ways they appear to blow cash on non core activities e.g. DX acquisitions and posh new offices in White City etc

Having said that, the science remains sound and offers real hope to cancer sufferers, so all good there.

WYN - 'You've some brass neck.....'

A bit like telling us you were leaving us (twice and as recently as yesterday) then immediately reneging on your promise.

LiveDA, clearly you can't read, I said 'my understanding' and deferred to JT as having a better understanding. It's a bulletin board conjecture is its purpose.

What is your interpretation of a P3 trial ? PS, don't use an assertive tone

As Jive T pointed out yesterday, any P3 trial would most likely run concurrently with commercial roll out. It would not delay commercialisation and broader patient dosing.

JT can explain better but my understanding is that P3 is effectively a broad scope 'insurance' trial that is undertaken after approval using a much larger patient pool to check for any potential problems that were not picked up in P1/2 in a real world 'roll out' setting.

Perhaps I’m clutching at straws but does anyone agree that Simon Bennett could be responsible for today’s raise?

What happened to the ‘ongoing commercial discussions’?

Perhaps he feels that we were negotiating too early and from a weakening cash position. Far better to raise some cash alone and progress P2 as an independent company for as long as possible?

This would lend itself to the additional cancer indications and the update on 3996. The more data we collect the more valuable the opportunity

Perhaps he is pointing out that Barcelona resisted the opportunity to sell Messi as a teenager for a couple of million euros when by holding on they knew he would be worth 100 mill in a couple of years time ??

It makes no sense for a company that was oversubscribed at 95p with limited data to now have to hold a fire sale raise at 50p whilst sitting on 7 cohorts worth of data.

What has gone wrong?. The time for woolly platitudes is over. No more ‘don’t worry about that’ ‘we are not boosters’

Now is the time for clear plans and timelines. LTH patience and goodwill has gone.

The value curve is upside down and the commercial phase is being supervised by the intern.

Now is the time for boosting the SP

Evening truant

Couple of quick questions, have either you or your family ever needed chemotherapy? Do you believe in karma?

Thanks JT and wasn’t it this ‘bystander’ damage to both the stroma and the cells themselves that sets AVA above ADC’s in their simplicity and effectiveness?

JT forgive me if I’ve misunderstood but didn’t EF make some reference to the fact that AVA killed both the stroma and the cancer cells thus reducing the cancer from developing a defence from dox ?

Nano, my point was that the daily SP is nothing more than the valuation of a company at that particular snapshot in time. It is what the market thinks the company is worth today. As we know the market isn't always correct and for obvious reasons the Co should always know more than the market and at the moment, whatever they know they aren't telling, so the market, like the rest of us, is guessing.

It has almost always been the case that early stage bio Co's like AVCT are loss making and often, have never made a profit in their history, therefore they are difficult to value using traditional methods e.g. P/E ratio's etc

It is therefore almost inevitable that any potential suitors for AVCT whether for a license deal or TO will be almost exclusively interested in the potential of the science and the platform, what is unique about the science? what it can deliver in the future? what is the potential demand? what is the potential market worth? and forecasted CAGR for targeted oncology etc etc, basically Porters 5 forces.

I'm sorry but I can't accept that any serious BP Co's due diligence teams will give anything more than a passing interest to the daily/weekly/monthly SP, it is simply not an important metric when compared to the metrics I have listed above.

In his interview of a few weeks ago he was unequivocal in his 'advice' that AVCT was a 'top tip' as a prime candidate for a take over.

Now AVCT is a 'top tip' as a candidate for a 60p placing? So what has changed in the intervening weeks Charles?

Please don't tell me you have based your well researched and considered advice on nothing more than chat board rumours and the fact that the SP has fallen??