Member Info for Dogberry101

Wolfie
This is a notoriously difficult share to value. I am interested on what metrics you are using is it as a Car Manufacturer is it as a a Grid scale battery supplier and Electricity Industry disrupter is it a software company if it is solely on financials and P/E ratio I don't think many of us would be invested here. My take is that it is a very progressive software and engineering company run by engineers and not MBAs or accountants. As a result when a better way is found to do something / save money / save time it is acted upon and implemented quickly case in point the new battery this has been in development for several years but when fully implemented will bring down cost and complexity of manufacture dramatically (over 70% cheaper capex to produce and over 50% less per KW/h per battery). IMO this alone makes Tesla worth the money everything else Autonomous Driving / Robotaxis and the power industry is just loads of freebie extras.

Hi Slow Roll
Does work well /at all in falling rain and snow?

Anyone any thoughts on Q3 earnings?
Personally I think they will be out of the park and legacy automakers will be nowhere.

You are correct Tick Tock
These batteries could well be Lithium Ferrous Phosphate (Mr Musk specifically stated this on battery day) or even Vanandium Redox flow batteries.

SmallT
The people who sign up will have to have agreed to sell at that price Poros will buy the shares at their discretion for $420 regardless of Teslas actual share price. There is no time limit so if Teslas share price goes to say $1000 in 18 months time Poros can still buy them for $420. Should the price go below $420 they wont buy them at all.

Nookie I've been waiting for years!!

I don't think Honda were caught on the hop with electric vehicles they and a number of other big ICE vehicle manufacturers had no intention of making anything other than the minimum number of compliance cars to allow access to parts of the American market and avoid huge EU fines. Perhaps they were hoping they could do a GM and convince governments that there was 'NO DEMAND' and stop making them for another 30 years or more. It is very painful for the legacy auto makers to change over, the skill sets and equipment needed is different and that is really expensive. Also I believe that many of the the electric cars they are making are being sold at a loss (relatively small numbers no economies of scale etc.) so why would they build a lot of them.

I have received a very clear message from HL on this.
Essentially if you sign up for this you will lose your Tesla shares at some point when Poros want to buy them at $420 regardless of the Tesla share price at that time. As Tesla are currently over $420 I cannot see many investors taking up the offer. It is not exactly a scam but neither is it upstanding fair conduct there can only be one winner in deals like this and it aint going to investors.

Hi Luke
I'm wondering if Mr Musk is not quite as clever as I thought. He could have picked up Nickel reserves on the cheap really cheap a couple of years ago.

I was quite surprised at the slump in share price following Q3 delivery numbers. After a look around what happened it appears analysts were impressed by the delivery numbers but believe that because Tesla has reduced prices they have a demand problem.
Every time Tesla has reduced prices the analysts trot out that this is because of 'flagging demand'.
If this were so where are the acres of parked Tesla cars waiting for buyers? There aren't any. Tesla has about 16 days supply inventory on hand auto industry average in the USA is apparently 71 days.
Every time Tesla lowers prices it broadens the customer base Musk reckons that his vehicles are still too expensive so every time he gets better at building vehicles better efficiency more economies of scale etc he lowers the price so more customers can afford them. When he completes ramping up production on the new battery and new die castings there will be a very an even greater cost reduction so significant his cars will be cheaper than ICE cars. GAME OVER

Hi Luke,
Lets hope that a lot of them have Lithion-ion Nickel rich batteries rather than Lithion-ion Ferrous phosphate .

Hi Bass
I will run through stuff that is widely available about Teslas self driving system.
1) All the vehicles they build come with the capability built in. They do charge extra to have it activated currently I think it is $8000. The system whether activated or not / turned on or not still sends data back to Tesla.
2) Tesla has accumulated a vast amount of data of particular interest is where autopilot is on but the driver takes over.
3) Interestingly Teslas using autopilot are about eight times safer than vehicles with a human driver (in the USA 1 accident every 4.5 million miles as opposed to around 460,000 miles.
Currently Lidar systems are not fitted in the vehicle when it is built so it is a retro fit also they need to install the computer and I believe Radar and ultra-sound sensors too all of which is expensive. My understanding of the Geo-fencing is that a 3 dimensional map is made and all the fixed objects are mapped and labelled with Sat-nav coordinates this enables the vehicle to know where it is at all times in the Geo-fenced area so it can also detect other moving objects around the vehicle and take appropriate action. Tesla autopilot has eight cameras 1 forward facing Radar and several Ultra-sound sensors. There is a brilliant explanation on Youtube the Tesla Autonomy day. Essentially what Tesla wants to do is to train the computer to drive like the best human driver so that it will function anywhere just like a human driver
I am not against Lidar I think there will be huge market in the security industry for facial recognition and for mobile computing products and smart phones it may even do away passwords.

Hi Bass
My understanding of the need for Lidar to be used in geofenced areas is from numerous articles and youtube videos from what appear to be well informed people. My understanding is that the area a Lidar system will work needs to be comprehensively mapped first presumably so that the system can acurately 'know' where it is. Perhaps you could let me know which Lidar system is working in non geofenced areas and where. As for the cost you state a full Lidar system was available for 40000 dollars two years ago does that also include the other sensors radar and ultrasound as well? Waymo vehicles are Pacifica vans costing 60000 dollars various sources have said that the sensing systems installed cost approximately another 100000 dollars apparently Waymo are not saying. Either way you can buy a fully equipped and auto-pilot software enabled Tesla for about 60000 dollars. The 'experts' in self driving believe that the winner will be be the one with the most data to train the AI system and Tesla is by far and away ahead of the field by orders of magnitude. We should soon see some movement forward Musk says that his software rewrite will be rolled out in a few weeks to selected users and to the fleet probably by the end of the year. Time will tell, I think you would have to be very brave to bet against Mr Musk.

bb
The battery details were really impressive to me. The battery will come out at approx. 80dollars per Kh IMO anything less than 100 dollars gives parity to ICE vehicles and makes the $40,000 Cybertruck possible and the Semi possible. If you listen to Tesla company details and Elon Musks pronouncements you will soon realise they tell porkies - often exaggerate - and sometimes they undersell what they have and time lines are at best wildly inaccurate but lately they are undershooting timelines Model Y or good example months early. I have a sneaky suspicion the battery timeline will be the same, they are on the fourth iteration of the production facility and are producing (Musk said) hundreds of thousands of batteries on the pilot line. I think they will be incorporating battery production lines into the new factories in Germany and Texas and they will be pumping out batteries in substantial quantities and I don't think it will take anything like three years.

Miss
You can put in orders outside US hours but I doubt you will get those filled until the US market is open if you have enough clout (big money) you can deal out of hours.

They specifically mentioned that the sulphate step was deleted and the nickel was polymer coated and straight into cathode formation.

Hi Lazy
I was mega-impressed by the presentation. If you delve into Tesla and Elon Musk you will find all sorts of information and in the dross on Youtube you can find some real diamonds on the subject.
There seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction in the media with battery day particularly with the time line. Battery day was an open presentation and I guarantee every battery producer every automaker and every battery scientist watched it. If you were Elon Musk would you tell them everything?
Sandy Muro tears down products costs them and recommends improvements and has done so for many years. He has had great difficulty tearing down Tesla products and has come to the conclusion Musk tells lies particularly in what materials are used. He is also a big fan of the way Tesla innovates and puts those innovations into vehicles he recently looked at the Octo-valve in a Model Y which has not been in production for a year and when he looked at the latest iteration he found 16 changes / improvements just on the Octo-valve.
My take on Musks time-line for production of the new battery at scale take it with a pinch of salt by this time next year Tesla will be turning out Cybertrucks and Semi trucks with the new battery from the Austin factory like there is no tomorrow.

This is the USA listed Tesla thats why you cannot deal the shares when the US market is closed.

Were you listening to what was said?
The presentation was was usual Elon ad-lib stumbling but the message was mind boggling.
They set out a new battery with a cost reduction of over 50% capex reduction for production facility reduction 0ver 70% and battery range increase over 40% and you are disappointed.

Just been watching the live stream and am gobsmacked.
Battery cost down by 56%. Capex for battery factory down 75%.
It appears that the chemistry is high Nickel and Manganese apparently no Cobalt.
What does it all mean Tesla is already around 5 years ahead of the competition and now it has trebled its lead.
They are going to need an awful lot of Nickel.