Member Info for Dogberry101

Hi Adam
As if by magic I found this on Youtube a very neat presentation of the fan boy case
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UKk2o8yDCQ
Yes he does have 5450 shares his average buy price is just $80 so he has been a fan for a while.
A really quite rich fan.

Adam
Just because you cannot see sense in the P/E does not mean legions of fan boys and greenies cannot. The shorters have I understand lost in excess of 35 billion dollars last year and a shed load more in 2018 and 2019.
What the fan boys and greenies have eyes on is the big picture when in 2030 Tesla is a 2 maybe 3 trillion dollar company pumping out 20 plus million electric almost certainly fully autonomous self driving cars; and a huge energy business turning battery storage solutions for everything from power-walls in houses to mega-packs for grid storage all connected together with auto-bidder software.

Quantumscape still have a lot of work still to do on their battery.
The new Tesla battery has been developed and fully tested it is in production in low volume at the Kato Road factory where a lot of work is still being done to optimise and speed the production lines prior to installation in the new factories in Berlin and Austin and probably Shanghai. I doubt that any commercially available battery will be able to come anywhere remotely near this battery in production cost (widely believed to be around $70 per KW/hr).
As far as I am aware Toyota still have a long way to go to even get close to Teslas technology and even if they do catch up they like pretty much all of the legacy auto makers then have to scale up their production of EVs. Tesla is not sitting on its laurels it continues to innovate continues to bring down costs and prices of its vehicles. Tesla will also produce this battery themselves unlike the legacy auto makers who will have to buy in batteries from third party suppliers (at cost plus profit margin).

I hope you have more luck than me I cannot get a price on HL.

Tesla missed their 2020 deliveries target (posted prior to Covid epidemic) by 450 vehicles.
Bearing in mind the Freemont factory was shuttered for nearly 6 weeks by the virus I think they did pretty well.
Anyone want to make a prediction for vehicle deliveries 2021?
I am thinking bear minimum 800,000 but depending how the new factory builds go maybe bull maximum 1.2 million.

Joey, Steve
I said gold had limited utility, in electronics in minuscule amounts, even in jewellery it's only used in tiny amounts not like nickel in very substantial amounts in making stainless steel and EV batteries.

Hi FlavourS
Nickel does not have the same allure as Gold?
Gold does not pay interest or dividends, it has very limited utility and because of its high value needs to be kept somewhere safe.
Nickel on the other hand is extremely useful with very high utility, currently it is in on the cusp of massive increase in demand which will be very difficult to satisfy.
I don't have much gold (a couple of bits of jewellery) but I do have quite a lot of Nickel which makes me really happy.

What Jubilee is doing with tailings is brilliant.
Then I had a thought surely they could do better.
If they processed the whole product direct from the miner it would save handling the mined material multiple times save moving the tailings for processing.
Would this not make more money for everyone the miner could contract out processing to Jubilee saving them the expense of setting up the processing plant and dealing with waste after processing.
Jubilee would save on processing by only doing the job once and taking all the metal out in one go and with higher metal content it should be more profitable. Transporting tailings would cost less a one stop shot moving millions of tons of tailings must be expensive.
I know our stock in trade is dealing with existing historic tailings and I think that should continue alongside.

Holders may find this useful, interesting and even comforting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xwxe0wU4b8

JW
Tesla has only just started, the addressable market is close to 100 million cars a year Tesla current production 500,000.
With respect Toyota and Apple will I am sure have projects in the pipeline (so have Tesla) but there is a world of difference between that and products on the forecourt for sale. Tesla the largest consumer of Lithium-ion batteries is still battery constrained despite deals with all the major battery producers. So much so that it is going to produce its own batteries - thing is Teslas new battery will be around half the cost to manufacture and require a much smaller factory footprint.
Who says Apple have better autonomy software? Apple have shown off their autonomous shuttle type vehicle equipped with four LIDAR sensors and cameras; Tesla have over a million vehicles with all the necessary equipment already on the road collecting data (well over 2 billion hours of data) and any you talk to involved with AI will tell you data is king. Apple have not given away much in the way of specifications. Being a LIDAR dependent system will it only be able to work in geo-fenced very expensively pre-mapped areas? Will it be able to work in heavy rain or snow? Teslas system already works to some extent in the real world everywhere and every day more data is collected and the AI gets better, no need for mapping the world.
Build quality is a very real issue and it is being addressed. Sandy Munro has several Youtube videos on this and concludes that the build quality issues are relatively easy to fix. I have not heard about swathes of complaints about the build quality of Chinese produced vehicles and I am absolutely certain that the German produced vehicles will stand up well in comparison to other vehicles. Bare in mind the Freemont factory was previously a Toyota car factory re-purposed by Tesla but not ideal. The new factories are designed and optimised for EV production. Also bare in mind that Teslas when tested have turned out to be the safest vehicles in the world.
Do have a look at the Munro content you will find it interesting perhaps even compelling.
Not a fanboy just a Musketeer.

Oh dear oh dear
I understand the sobriquet now. Shorters are down about 35 Billion dollars this year alone on Tesla. They also lost a fortune last year. I don't understand why you find the company so overpriced Tesla is only addressing a very small portion of a two very big markets not only that but the regulatory authorities around the world are are pressing for the adoption of the things Tesla supplies. Mr Musk has stated that the intention is to grow the company at a compound annual growth rate of 50% and so far he has been hitting that target. This is why the company is so highly rated by investors.
Charlie Munger 2 IC at Berkshire Hathaway stated recently they would not be buying Tesla neither would they be shorting Tesla.

Hi Cadet
The apple vehicle does not appear to be a 'car' the pictures I have seen seem to indicate a sort of shuttle type vehicle, an autonomous Robotaxi, it has 4 LIDAR sensors to cover the vehicle stuck out on short stalks in the corners apparently it also has cameras.
There are a whole host of things about this vehicle that Apple has not said. Will the vehicle be constrained to geo-fenced mapped areas. What arrangements have been made with regulatory authorities to allow use of the vehicle?
Will the LIDAR work in falling snow / rain /hail?
How much will the vehicle cost, LIDAR systems at present are costly, the Lithium Ferrous Phosphate batteries might be less expensive but if Apple are going to produce them where is the factory?
The vehicle will not be built by Apple but by a third party contractor, where is the deal and who will the third party contractor be?
Just the above is an awful lot of ducks to get lined up in less than 3 years.
IMO Apple will be doing extremely well to meet the goals outlined; of course they have not said that this is a mass market vehicle so producing a few hundred Robotaxis for a geo-fenced city somewhere warm with no snow and preferably low rainfall area similar to Waymo in Phoenix Arizona might be possible.

bb
Monday will I am sure be a great day to sell Tesla and provide a good opportunity for some profit taking although pre-market they are down over 5%. However buying back later at a lower price well good luck with that. The tracker funds will have to hold Tesla long term sure they may well buy and sell some here and there to keep the fund balanced but I suspect that will be very few. Bench-marked funds have more flexibility but again I expect they will not be releasing many shares either. IMO Tesla has just become a lot less volatile and there is plenty of good news coming next year and perhaps even in what remains of this year Q4 sales (over 500,000 annually almost certainly) start of model Y sales in China probably like Model 3 only to Tesla staffers but ramping up rapidly. Next year opening of Giga Berlin possibly by end of Q1 certainly by Q2 end. Giga Texas maybe opening by end of Q2 (contractors working 24/7) and then an announcement of at least another new factory perhaps more than one.

Hi Wolfie
My understanding is that the tracker funds would not be buying until the market close on Friday. The reason being that the funds are tracking the market they are not even trying to beat the market so they buy whatever price as near as possible to inclusion date so as to track the market accurately this is what accounts for the surge in share price late on and after hours on Friday.

With respect JW they say they will be there by 2025.
By 2025 Tesla will be knocking out between 3 and 4 million EVs and if the recent past is anything to go due to continuous improvement they will be much better and cheaper vehicles,

IMO the answer is no, the largest consumer of Lithium-ion batteries is Tesla. Everyone in the battery world knows that if you have a better battery / battery technology you take it first to Tesla because they are the ones who have the resources and the desire to develop and use it.
The Nickel metal hydride battery inventor sold the patent to GM who sold it to an oil company who sat on it and suppressed it and then allowed it to be used only in small devices. GM knew about this battery and built an EV years but insisted that the developers use lead acid batteries and surprise surprise it was not very good and went nowhere and GM continued saying there was no demand for EVs. This is an unlikely scenario with Tesla, who incidentally reckon commercially viable solid state batteries are probably at least five years away.

Hi Newboy
Looking for stuff in the new energy space?
Perhaps you might consider other materials materials, Horizonte Minerals (HZM) a nearly ready for production of Nickel mine in Brazil initially for stainless steel production but also with reserves suitable for lithium-ion batteries. My current favorite is Jubilee Minerals (JLP) which produces fine Chrome and Platinum group metals from old mine tailings (waste) no expensive digging and tunneling etc. just re-processing existing material on the surface. Started in South Africa and have since expanded in Zambia and are now making inroads into Copper mine waste there.

There seems to be a lot of FUD being spread here so some more things to consider.
There will be some (understatement here) volatility surrounding the S&P inclusion and I would not be surprised to see the price fall after the event possibly substantially. This is not unusual many companies which have been added have retreated after the event.
I have been invested since Tesla were trading pre-stock split at 280 dollars and I have bought and sold during that time and have done pretty well with the exception of when I sold out in February I would have done better sitting on my hands and doing nothing.
Will I sell out tomorrow? Honestly I don't know selling out in excess of $700 a share would be pretty good. Buying back in later at a lower price might be difficult it might be very difficult; between S&P tracker funds and bench-marked funds needing to have (in the case of tracker funds) and will definitely want to have in the case of bench-marked funds they are going to have to buy up to 40% of the available float and once it is in the funds it is likely to remain there.
So how many shares have speculators bought to sell tomorrow? I wish I knew.

I note you are quoting Gordon Johnson now he claims to be an analyst but in fact he has lost an absolute fortune shorting Tesla the 'facts' he selects are are dubious at best and usually downright wrong (he even lost his previous job on this point).
I wonder what your motives are?

Hi Luke
Nice post I really liked the bit about Mercedes seeking to lead in electric mobility.
Mercedes do not have a clue I read an Elon Musk biography including about how Tesla were in cahoots with Mercedes following Mercedes making a large investment. Apparently before the deal was struck Tesla obtained a Smart Car from somewhere in Mexico and electrified it prior to the meeting with Mercedes which surprised and delighted them. Working from memory here Mercedes bought $650 million of Tesla stock now they did make a substantial profit when they sold it but not nearly as much as they would have done if they had held on current worth several billion dollars.
Mercedes are years behind VW and probably more than a decade behind Tesla.
It was a brave call but I think it is likely to be too little and far too late.