Member Info for Dogberry101

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What you need is patience. Tesla is doing pretty much all the right things the company fundamentals are really good what is all wrong is the macro economic environment - War in Ukraine - very sticky inflation - Central Banks upping interest rates and cutting back monetary easing fear of recession everywhere. All will come good (eventually providing Vlad does not press the big red button) but it may take a while in the meantime you should be sitting on your hands watching fly over videos from Giga Texas and Berlin wondering what the the bears could be thinking for them to sell Tesla short.

Smart Punter
I think not.
Your words >>Model Y is largest selling BEV car . Tesla sell 1.3M. Riven 20k. Ha Ha
Tesla is a one product company, car manufacturers sell many models for different markets and customer type.
Hence BYD is the biggest EV manufacture in the world and they sell 1.6million.
There is no bottom to this share, may hit $20. Missed three consecutive Quarterly sales targets and its a car company not tech.
2-D FSD is a bust, they will have to buy in self driving software for 3-D lidar
Tesla make Model S Model Y Model X and Model 3 and are now upping production of the Semi-Truck er then there are Mega Packs Power Walls and Solar Roofs. Making lots of different vehicles is not a good idea GM and Ford and Toyota and VW do this and they are not doing too well are they (losing market share and have monumental amounts of debt and minuscule profit margins}.
BYD do a good job but they are using conventional ICE vehicles and plug in hybrids to subsidize their BEVs. In terms of innovation, efficiency, engineering prowess and cost of production Tesla are in a class of their own they are not a bit ahead they are years ahead.
Sure the stock could go down to $20 Vladimir could press the Nuclear button lots of things could happen. IMO I think it pretty unlikely and it depends on whose 'targets' you are talking about Wall Streets or Teslas. Tesla say they aim to grow 50% per year on average last year was 44% so not quite there but considering the exigencies to supply chains and chip supplies and Covid in China pretty good I think.
FSD is a bust - really, spend a little time on Youtube watching some very impressive FSD Beta drivers driving for hours without intervening. Lidar is not scalable it only works in geo-fenced areas that have been expensively pre-mapped in great detail (and need to be constantly updated). Drivers using FSD have an accident every six and a half million miles compared to a human driver at 450,000 miles so it is not done it is not perfect - yet, but it is getting there and when sorted will work anywhere and everywhere because it will be able drive not just navigate its way around a meticulously mapped sand box.
Smart Punter???

I have not posted recently because i have been too busy sitting on my hands watching the economic train wreck.
Tesla is a much better and very much bigger company now than it was a year ago. The share price has as we all know gone down this is not due to the performance of the company which has been exemplary, and whilst Elon's Twitter acquisition has not helped it is not due to that (after all Apple Amazon Microsoft Google and a host of Tech stocks also went down an awful lot and they have no Twitter connection and neither do Rivian and Lucid similarly way down this year). That there will be a recession in the US and already is one over here could make it another difficult year, not to mention international tension and the war in Ukraine providing uncertainty and doubt in the market; and various governments trying to push inflation back into the box.
So a bad year for Tesla share value but was it a bad year for Tesla the company it most certainly was not. Tesla is in a very strong position to weather the coming economic storm with over 20 billion dollars of cash in the bank next to no debt and I await with great interest Q4 results which I think will surprise many people particularly the detractors.
So as an investor I will continue sitting on my hands, if I can I may even buy a few more shares Chump and Eileen will no doubt continue posting their untruths and half truths I seem to recall something about he who laughs latest.

Well here we are again Eileen. You have obviously not been watching the numerous postings on Youtube from Tesla owners that have been using the Beta FSD system. It is not perfect yet but it is getting there James Douma (look him up, he's no shop egg) has a Tesla and has been driving on FSD for some time and he is very very impressed; I still think as I said before FSD is all but done the system for getting it completed is sorted. OK a little more finessing and a lot more miles using the system and it will get better still.
I see you were impressed with Bumble 3, again I don't think you watched the same presentation as me there were some videos shown of Bumble walking picking up, carrying boxes and putting them down and picking up and using a small watering can and moving components in the factory. Sure there are other much more impressive looking robots about with apparent abilities far ahead of Bumble unfortunately it has taken many years and billions of dollars to make them and none of them have good spacial awareness and everything they do has to be programmed into them. Optimus has /will have a lot more AI and it will also have all the data from FSD for spacial awareness.
Bumble was iteration 1 of Optimus iteration 2 has already been built and is still in development by the time we get to iteration 5 Eileen even you will be blown away.
Finally the presentation was not for our benefit it was aimed at recruiting the smartest talent in AI, Robotics Computer Science and engineering in the world and get them to come and work at Tesla and I assure you those people were very impressed.

Lars is definitely a Tesla fanboy but that does not make him wrong. He researches and finds very interesting numbers and stats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hzp0JMI9MI

Anyone got any ideas on how Elon is going to roast short sellers following his recent tweet?
Anyone any ideas on FSD and the significance of Andrej Karpathy leaving the company? I have seen some suggestions about FSD developments on various YouTube videos and I am thinking that FSD is pretty much done which is why he has left, there was nothing left for him to do. What do I mean by 'done' I mean that the system(s) necessary for FSD hve been developed to a place where everything is in place and working as required and that the AI can now be left to sort out the problem. It is not only Karpathy who has has gone a lot of other staff from the FSD programme have also gone in particular over a hundred labelers.
Anyone have any ideas on how fast Grunheide and Austin will ramp up production? They are both building the Model Y and using a much simplified design made possible by mega castings for the front, rear and battery pack. The bottom of the vehicle is just 3 pieces the factory foot-print for building this new Model Y is way smaller than for typical vehicles using hundreds fewer robots my feeling is that the ramp up could well be a lot more rapid than many realise.
There does seem to be a fly in the ointment the ramp up of 4680 cells does not appear to be going to plan, obviously the batteries can be made and at scale its just that the scale is not as big as I thought it would be by now it will happen they will solve the problems just not as quickly as I thought.
Finally WHAT WILL BE REVEALED ON THURSDAY?

I am very impressed with the performance of Tesla given that Shanghai was shut for nearly a month and then some re-tooling done and not forgetting supply chain difficulties particularly chip shortages. appears the market appreciated the performance share price up 10% so far today.

A further snippet of information also came to light, June production was a record the highest monthly production in Tesla history. Indicates to me that the company is back on track and still heading to the moon.

Just picked this up Tesla Production Q2 2022 is 258,480 Deliveries 254.695.
I think a pretty remarkable result with Shanghai being shut down for nearly a month. So Tesla appear to have got Shanghai back up to speed and are ramping up Grunheide and Austin pretty well too.

From a check around the usual sources nearer to heart of the matter 250,000 to 256,000 and I think there may be a surprise with numbers from Austin.
Incidentally a sea of red on the markets again today.

New video from Dave Lee interviewing James Douma a tesla model S Plaid owner and FSD user who happens to be very deeply into Artificial Intelligence and has worked in the field for a long time.
He recently drove a very difficult route in northern California using FSD with almost no interventions, the interventions were principally because he did not want to inconvenience other road users.
So a really helpful discussion on all things FSD from Tesla and the competition in that space.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmI7SFWLoiE

Lets have a reality check here, Elon said that the Austin factory was burning through money. Probability is that Grunheide is also losing money and that these two factories will be losing money for a while until they are ramped up to full production. My only concern is that Tesla may have unforseen supply chain difficulties that will slow the ramping process down, however, with Tesla's track record on getting around supply chain difficulties I am not too worried. There may be some disappointment with Q2 figures and Q3 figures but I am expecting that by year end normal service will be resumed.

Many thanks Tony I am presuming that will be pretty much the installed cost. Teslas 4680 cell when revealed at battery day was estimated by the knowledgeable commentators at around $75 KWh but thats the high nickel battery for cars not the alternative LFP cells. The Tesla batteries also need a sophisticated and quite expensive management and cooling system. They are very popular and Tesla cannot keep up with the demand waiting times now well over a year, a cheaper very durable more simple product must have great potential.

I have spent some time looking for how much the product costs in comparison to other flow batteries and lithium -ion batteries without success.
I appreciate that the exact cost will not be known until large scale manufacturing commences but surely someone must know / at least have an educated guess. 5% is a cost saving but its not going to set the battery market on fire 50% or more cost saving well that's a different story altogether.

I'm new here I regularly watch this youtuber and try to stay up to speed with all things new energy and electrification of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QaZmoh4K7E
It has the appearance of being the 'holy grail' of grid scale and home storage.
1) Materials cheap and very widely available.
2) Easy to manufacture in existing lead acid battery factories (with some modifications) but essentially using the same methods and equipment.
3) Very tolerant of abuse and and temperatures up to 50 degrees and can be safely discharged to zero and stored in that state.
4) Cannot catch fire does not require pumps or moving to work or be kept cool.
5) Long cycle life 5000 cycles and can be re-cycled easily and cheaply at the end of life again using same equipment as for re-cycling lead acid batteries.
Whats not to like?
Presumably there are some downsides anyone want to prick the bubble.
How cheap is cheap is one I can think of.

That's what I have been saying for a while this is a share for genuine investors not day traders and short term holders, the market is having a hard time its more than jitters, recession is looming just about everywhere. Tesla fundamentals remain rock solid the company is good shape the problems are everywhere else. Recession means a lot of people spending less particularly the JAMS (just about managing) to coin a phrase from Teresa May. Fortunately for Tesla share holders the JAMS are not and never were likely to be Tesla buyers but if the recession cuts deep enough sales could well be impacted.
Another thought would all those fossil fuel investors getting huge dividends buy a Tesla?

One mans view of Teslas battery materials problems and Tesla strategy for getting all the battery materials and therefore batteries it needs at the best price.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GYobz2NSc4
Of course it may not happen like this, there will always be revisions and we should not rule out technology perhaps a new highly efficient solid state cell will come along who knows. We should also bare in mind that the way the industry is progressing now and for the next 3 to 5 years and probably much longer Tesla is the undisputed king.

Chump we will indeed see where it ends up but you seem to think this is all about Elon, when I have looked all I see is sea of red everywhere and a lot of tech companies have fared a lot worse than Tesla. IMO this is all about world politics and macro economic conditions, not a problem with Tesla, I doubt we are at the bottom just yet but just look where Tesla stands, virtually debt free, making money hand over fist, with really good margins and a customer waiting list we can't even see the end of.

I would like to put in my two-pennyworth that Teslas share price has fallen because of of macro market problems not helped by Elon deciding to buy Twitter. My valuation of the company has gone up quite a lot, no let up in demand and two new factories opened and ramping up production, one producing4680 batteries already and the other building an onsite 4680 battery factory; the Shanghai factory re-opening and an extension being constructed.
Billy Elon has sold (so far) 4 billion dollars worth of Tesla shares which is a a very small percentage of the shares he owns, I agree we are living through difficult times and if Tesla were making the 25000 dollar car I could see demand faltering but at the current price level I don't see see much of a hit rich people who can afford Tesla products will happily sink their rapidly de-valuing cash into hard assets especially ones which hold value well like Tesla cars.

Billy
I reckoned the run rate now not how many vehicles would be produced this year. Bare in mind that Grunheide was subject to considerable delay I think that is very likely that the production facility was bench-marked and validated and running like a well oiled machine before the factory opened up so the ramp up could be very swift, all things being equal -supplies of chips and finding suitable employees etc. My estimate for the entire year including Austin and Grunheide ramping up like mad and don't forget that Shanghai is being enlarged and production increased there too so I think it could well be between 1.75 and 2 million.
P.S. just wondering how the shorts are doing.