Member Info for Dogberry101

Eileen
Having replied to the safety issue, you also added ''And as ever you then try to discredit the person make the argument, rather than addressing the issue''
The one trying to do the discrediting was O'Dowd he was trying to discredit Tesla, incidentally the ''evidence'' he used was 11 Youtube posts of people driving Teslas with FSD engaged lasting 7 hours or so.
Also he did not declare his considerable conflict of interest namely supplying driver assist software and systems to rival auto-makers.

Eileen
''Dog, are you deliberately missing the most important point. If you want to take the risk of FSD beta , that's would be fine if it was only you at risk, but why should you be able to subject other road user's to this hazard if it is not fully tested.''
As I am sure you know Teslas are the safest cars on the road, in the USA an accident occurs on average about every 450,000 miles, in a Tesla with FSD engaged an accident occurs about every 4,500,000 so nine times safer. So not perfect but it never will be (even if all cars are autonomous) because having an accident does not necessarily mean it is your fault there will be exogenous events like trees being blown down and black ice and horse riders unable to control their horse etc.

Eileen
First of all Tesla FSD system is a Beta system it is made abundantly clear that the system is a driver assist system. Tesla do not say that FSD will drive the vehicle without the driver being ready to take over at all times.
I found this about the story;
''O’Dowd is so committed to the project that he is offering a $10,000 reward “to the first person who can name another commercial product from a Fortune 500 company that has a critical malfunction every 8 minutes.”
On the surface the whole thing looks like a desperate attempt to be seen as relevant through a series of lies, half-truths, and deceptions, but perhaps the biggest deception is from the founder himself, Dan O’Dowd.
According to O’Dowd’s LinkedIn profile, not only is he the founder of The Dawn Project, but also the current CEO of Green Hills Software. A quick review of the company’s website reveals they provide software that helps “automotive companies achieve the safety and security necessary for production-level ADAS [Advanced Driver Assist Systems] and automated driving systems.” The company most recently worked with BMW and their new iX all-electric sports utility vehicle according to a news release on January 5, 2022 published on their website.
Why is someone who provides software to competing automakers so keen on taking down Tesla’s Full Self-Driving?''
Well I would say it is because he is being paid to do by large premium brand automotive OEM fighting a rear- guard action to try and stem the loss of sales to Tesla.

Eileen
What can I say except where did it say FSD engaged enabled or even available to that car?

Eileen
Nearly a million people bought one this year and there are well over a million people waiting for a Tesla to be made, I really don't think the alleged opinion of one over-privileged very wealthy man counts for very much.

Eileen
Not quite correct the Cybertruck will be launched this year. So other companies are launching lots of new models first of all how many of these new models will they be able to produce? GM are really good at releasing press releases but somewhat lacking in making the vehicles Cadillac Lyric for instance they will produce 1200 this year, ford has indicated it will double production of the F150 Lightening to 85,000.
Tesla is into continuous improvement so the Model 3 and Model Y cars being produced now are not the same as they were when the models were launched. Also why would they need to introduce new models when they going flat out producing the cars they already have and cannot keep up with the demand for those vehicles.

Eileen
Not again not more subsidy rubbish. Anyone would think that Mr Musk companies were the only ones in the world ever to get subsidies. Governments decide policy and very frequently use subsidies to encourage companies to invest in new technologies to enable the take-up of the new technology. I don't see you harping on about the same subsidies being paid to Ford and General Motors for electrification of transport or the subsidies paid to Boeing and Blue Origin for rocket development of for the subsidies and tax breaks given to the Oil Industry for decades to find and develop fossil fuel deposits. In essence Eileen give it a rest the records cracked and you are starting to look daft.

Billy
I will give you three numbers, as the 'experts' wold say a bear case 1.4 million bull case 1.9 million and the more likely where Tesla will be 1.5 to 1.6 million. What will affect these predictions and make these estimates real
Bear case big unforeseen problems both internal more delays in opening Grunheide and set-up problems with new technology and external exogenous shocks major problems with a new Covid variant closing down suppliers and supply chains a major financial recession affecting demand etc.
Bull case everything goes really well and Tesla performs flawlessly Grunheide and Austin both open up and ramp production quickly, 4680 batteries become available in quantity from three plants (Kato Road Grunheide and Austin) making production of the Semi in substantial numbers viable and bringing forward the Cybertruck start of production may be as early as 2nd or 3rd quarter.
Where Tesla is most likely to be is somewhere in the middle there are still many hurdles to get over German bureaucracy the chip shortage, Covid problems the US government (well President) macro economic conditions etc.
Do bare in mind that there is an awful lot we have not been told Elon has been sandbagging for a while and misdirecting competitors. Things I would like to know:-
When will Grunheide open and when will the 4680 battery plant be up and running.
Further how many 4680 batteries are being produced at Kato Road has the last 10% of production at scale been sorted
What proportion of the Austin plant is being set up to produce Cybertruck (it is an absolutely enormous facility) and I think we may be surprised by Elon announcing that preliminary production of Cybertruck. Model Y came out much earlier than anyone had anticipated.
We know that the Grunheide and Austin factories are going to have all the latest innovations in production including large underbody castings, structural battery packs probably carbon fibre wrapped motors etc. What we don't know is how much these innovations will affect production run rates and production ramp-up times, I don't know but I would be prepared to bet quite a lot that the effect will be very profound particularly to the bottom line and share price.

Billy,
I think you may be a bit off with 1.5 million vehicles this year. The sources I look at reckon that Tesla run rate now is about 1.3 million; so starting with that we know that Shanghai will be upping capacity somewhere between 20% and 30% so there will be a run rate of close to a million vehicles there. Fremont is running around 700,000 vehicles now and with some of the pressure coming off when Austin and Berlin start up I think some serious re-jigging may be able to be done to upgrade and modernise the factory and up the production. Then we have Austin they are already producing vehicles, now bearing in mind Shanghai ramped up to 150,000 in the first year and Tesla have learned a thing or two about production since then including large under-body castings and structural battery packs and of course 4680 batteries who knows how many they can and will produce. Similarly Grunheide (Berlin) but I doubt it will be less than Shanghai managed.

Billy
Chill down the fundamentals have not changed it could easily be day traders taking a 10 -12% profit; the US market has not closed yet it may just be daily fluctuation. This is an awkward week to read a lot of people in the market and traders take the week off.

Especially for Eileen Jep and Chump (where are you Chump and Jep I've missed you)
Analysts thoughts and notes on Tesla Q4 results and updated estimates (not analysts no one ever heard of).
Also an interesting snippet right at the end that Giga Austin is making vehicles and will officially open this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWJrOmJ5itk

Billy
Steady on the deliveries were were stellar as was the much more important rate of production numbers but what really really matters we shall find out in a couple of weeks when we get the financials and in particular the profit margin. I am optimistic that that the financials will be brilliant too and we will know soon enough in the meantime I expect the price to go up as the shorts rush to cover before they lose another fortune when the financials are revealed.

Wolfie
As you say brilliant results, this is from the New York Times.
Tesla reported Sunday that it delivered 936,000 cars in 2021, an 87 percent increase from the year before, despite the computer chip shortage that has disrupted auto production around the world.
In the fourth quarter alone, the company delivered more than 308,000 vehicles, a 71 percent increase from the quarter a year earlier. The overwhelming share of the deliveries were of the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y hatchback. Wall Street analysts had been expecting deliveries of about 266,000 cars in the fourth quarter, and about 855,000 for the year.
“The numbers are hard to poke holes in,” Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in a note to investors. “While there are many competitors in the E.V. space, Tesla continues to dominate market share as evidenced again this quarter.”
I know Eileen only likes to quote the negative analysts so I included Dan Ives views (Dan is a high scorer on Tip Ranks along with Adam Jonas both of whom are bullish on Tesla)

Eileen
I have no idea what her agenda is or motives are. As you say she could have a short position or maybe she just just wants the notoriety and to elevate her her persona and be talked about.

Eileen
I don't believe a word of what she says, she couldn't even keep a straight face. This is the first time I have even heard of Kramer Capital Research so one to put in the Gordon Johnson bin of useless not a clue hopeless articles..
No. 1 One idiot blowing up an old car that had already done over 400,000 miles does not constitute widespread disapproval, No. 2 Turn over of staff well there has always been some turnover and there always will be I am sure I would have picked up any serious problems in this regard and I haven't yet.
The EV revolution is only just getting started there are over a billion ICE vehicles which need to be replaced and EVs currently are at around 2%, the market is huge and the market leader Tesla is still pulling ahead of what some people are still calling the competition.

Eileen,
We will have to see what is required to fix the issues although I doubt it will just be a software update to sort it out. That said fixing the bonnet catch and putting a couple ties on the wiring should not be that much of an issue.

That would be me Billy I couldn't resist buying a few I suppose the shorters also dipped in to make a few quid. I see next year being very interesting with a lot happening hopefully the headwinds are turning into tailwinds and it will be plain sailing from the start of the year with the new factories opening and then smoothly ramping up production.
Happy humbug.

I know that the detractors / Tesla haters and short sellers want the investors to think that competitors to Tesla are coming up fast and will be overtaking Tesla imminently but it just isn't so; to hear them talk anyone would think that Tesla was standing still and that is not true either. Tesla has problems which it is tackling head on number one being getting enough batteries it has even developed the 4680 battery and the production method and factory (Kato Road in production and battery plants in Austin and Berlin under construction) to produce it at scale in in massive volume.
Tesla battery and drive train efficiency are unrivaled i.e. they get better performance and longer range from a smaller battery pack than any of the competitors certainly any of the similarly priced ones and this matters because the most expensive part of an electric car is the battery so a bigger battery means a more expensive vehicle and a heavier vehicle which will be a slower less responsive vehicle.
When 4680 batteries are being produced at scale and are available in the volume required by Tesla it will be game these batteries perform better weigh less and are significantly cheaper to manufacture than anything the 'competitors' have or are likely to have in the foreseeable future which I put at around five years. Yes I know that there are solid state batteries on the horizon which promise great things and these will have to achieve great things and be cheap to produce in vast quantities to make any impression on Tesla. For the record I would be prepared to make a fairly large wager that Tesla is working very hard on solid state too I seem to recall John Goodenough and Helena Bragga came up with an innovative solid state battery with a glass separator about 4 years ago which went very quiet and remains so.

Eileen
''The Ioniq 5 being slower isn't surprising when you look at the stats. The base rear-wheel-drive Ioniq 5 makes just 168 hp and 258 lb-ft and goes 220 miles with its 58-kWh battery fully charged. Better-equipped RWD models make 225 hp and 258 lb-ft and can go 303 miles thanks to a larger 77.4-kWh battery. The more powerful dual-motor all-wheel-drive model only goes 256 miles on the same battery, but it puts out 320 hp and 446 lb-ft, making it the most powerful SUV Hyundai's ever built but still considerably less powerful than even a base rear-drive Model 3. The Tesla Model Y crossover will go between 303 and 318 miles depending on the trim, and comes with dual-motor AWD standard, so you do have to make a trade-off like with the Hyundai.

It therefore is no surprise the Ioniq 5 is considerably slower in a straight line, needing at best an estimated 5.1 seconds to hit 60 mph, or 7.3 seconds for the more powerful of the two single-motor models. (No estimate has been given for the base model, but expect to add at least another half-second.) The base Model Y will reach 60 in less than 5.0 seconds, and the Performance model will get there in roughly 3.5 seconds. The Model 3 is even quicker. If you're gonna drag race, the Ioniq 5 isn't the car for you.''
Its a good car but it aint caught up yet.

Its not positive thinking it's POSITIVE SALES that are required.