Member Info for Dogberry101

I found this today someone taking an interest in the negativity in the media surrounding Tesla. I think she has has it spot on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ExCyU_wIcI

Billy
He makes it up.
Lucid make a fine car and at the starting price of $178,000 so they should; but they are not going to capture much of the the EV market at that price. Tesla is regarded as a premium brand and is outselling Mercedes and BMW in the USA so the niggles with build quality of the early vehicles has done very little damage to the brand. Chump has obviously not seen the clips regarding the quality of the Chinese built Model Y's from the Tesla designed and built factory using the giga-cast underbody parts. I doubt that he has even had a close look at a Tesla.

Eileen
I looked at the clip and sort of so what. How old was the clip? What Tesla model vehicle was it? How old was the car?
So a couple of clips and I can assure you that these are not from fan boys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paU6RWZiT-U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQ6Ctj7z-js
I would also like to see a bit more courtesy and less nasty toxic content on here.
While I am at it something else that may be of interest concerning Mr Burry's short position almost it the end of the clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX1ArZhoiPw

Jep
I'm glad we at least have some points of agreement
'By the time Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google all had market caps of $750bn, they already had quite solid fundamentals in place and neither of them were trading on crazy PEs (Both Microsoft and Apple were even already paying dividends by that time).'
There is a very good reason while this is so Apple outsource manufacturing so no capex needed there, Microsoft and Google primarily software companies so not much capex required either and Amazon has capex needed but not on a slow incremental model. You cannot be a vertically integrated manufacturer making large complex products like Tesla without massive capex. The good thing is now that Tesla have sufficient capacity either built or nearly completed to make probably 6 million vehicles a year when production is fully ramped up. These vehicles will also benefit from the new techniques like large mega cast under-body parts, 4680 structural battery packs and Cybertruck a stainless steel body shell requiring no painting. I suggest you watch the shareholder presentation this evening because if Tesla is this profitable now well Tesla to the Moon.

Jep
I don't have a chip on shoulder short sellers are short sellers I don't discriminate as far as I am concerned they are all small bore.
What Tesla has achieved so far is remarkable do you think that legacy auto makers would be making EVs now if Tesla had not forced the issue? They are being dragged kicking and screaming into electrification and this could easily have been killed off by short sellers.
On fundamental value I think there is more than your way of looking at it, you almost certainly would have said the same stuff about Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google too. Technology stocks in rapid growth phase have proved to be very difficult to value.
So Jep how much value do you attribute to the new factories, new models Cybertruck, Model 2 (or whatever it will be called) the Semi truck, the Tesla Van / Minibus, Full Self Driving, 4680 batteries, Tesla AI technology quite apart from Megapack, Powerwall, solar roofs, autobidder, micro grids and the off the wall Teslabot obviously I value them far higher than you.

Jep
'Neither Chanos nor Burry wish to denigrate Tesla or make it go bankrupt. This is incorrect what you say. They simply see a company whose current market valuation is vastly divorced from it's fundamentals. Unlike others, these guys read the company reports and go over the financials with a fine-tooth comb'
Heres me thinking that shorters make money by borrowing shares for a while and selling them immediately then buying them back to return them to the owner - hoping they will have gone down in price in the interim. If only this was all they did but no they go onto financial news programes write articles for financial journals spouting the aforementioned BS to spread FUD to share holders in an effort to panic them into selling their shares and cause potential buyers not to buy the shares driving the share price down which means they make more money, maximum win if shares go down to nothing.
It is interesting that short selling is still allowed afterall as Elon said 'You cannot sell a house you don't own you cannot sell a car you don't own why can you sell shares you don't own'

Billy
My information for the post
Bloomberg reports:

“The percentage of stock borrowed by traders, a standard measure of short interest, has slumped to 1.1% of Tesla’s shares available for trading, according to IHS Markit Ltd. as of last Thursday. That’s the lowest since 2010, when the carmaker went public.”

Eileen
We don't have a problem with facts and discussion it's just such a shame that the 'facts' always seem to be very selective and often misrepresented or distorted and always detrimental.

Chunp
What irks shareholders is shorters spouting BS and FUD in an attempt to discredit the company and drive down the price.
If history has anything to show it is that shorting Tesla has proved to be extremely expensive.
We are currently seeing something of a re-rate for tech stocks but so far Tesla is coming out well.
Shorts are now down to about 1% of Tesla shares so that leaves you three and Michael Burry.

Eileen
You will see how profitable in a short while when the Q3 sales figures are published.

Jep
The biggest problem investors have had with Tesla is the fact that it is a US company and therefore the reporting is mostly from the US media which is totally corrupt and dependent on advertising revenues garnered from the likes of Big Auto and Big Oil.
How many times have I tuned into interviews or read articles on Tesla full of short sellers (Jim Chanos, Gordon Johnson, Mark Spiegel, Michael Burry and until recently Jim Cramer) spreading FUD and denigrating Tesla at every turn, these guys were actively trying to ruin the company.
Regarding JP Morgan price target well perhaps we could put that in focus who is one of JP Morgans biggest customers no other than Ford.

Eileen
And Rolls Royce and Ferrari are cheap and the Polestar is similarly priced. You are dead right that Teslas are still expensive although on an apples to apples comparison on performance they stack up pretty well. I would also disagree that Tesla are not profitable they most certainly are very profitable this does not mean they will be paying dividends anytime soon; building new factories to expand the business costs money (incidentally they just paid off the loan for the Shanghai factory).
I would also say this about the affordable car, when you have very successful products that you are unable to meet demand for why would you rush into production with a cheaper probably lower profit product that may have battery supply problems. Ditto for the Semi. The good thing is that Teslas battery supply problems are now coming to an end they have negotiated supply contract with CATL for huge numbers of LFP batteries and they are /will be ramping up production of their own 4680 cells very soon

Eileen
I really don't think Ferrari and Rolls Royce customers would ever even think about buying a Tesla what they are buying is a status symbol not transport. As for Polestar I hope it does well but it is a bit disingenuous calling a Swedish made car it is actually made by Geely in China (result of a Geely / Volvo joint venture). As for Ford what can we say The MachE is a good vehicle but they hope to make 50000 a year the F150 Lightning will sell very well in USA and I understand they have 150,000 pre-orders unfortunately they cannot build them in anything like those numbers they have doubled production to 40,000 a year (that is starting mid 2022). What we cannot say is how much Ford is losing on each EV they produce because to sell any they have to be competitively priced with Tesla and unfortunately their EV engineering, procurement and manufacturing capability are no where near being competitive with Tesla.

Eileen
'then Tesla would need to sell over maybe 600-700k car next Q3'
Tesla will not be selling that number of vehicles next Q3 they will be selling a lot more Giga Austin and Giga Berlin will both be ramping production like crazy by then not to mention the new addition being built at Giga Shanghai

Rob Maurer
@TeslaPodcast
·
Oct 2
Tesla's Q3 delivery history:

2012 - 321
2013 - 5,516
2014 - 7,785
2015 - 11,603
2016 - 24,821
2017 - 26,137
2018 - 83,775
2019 - 97,186
2020 - 139,353
2021 - 241,300
This is the reason Tesla is valued so highly.

Wolfie
The numbers were higher a lot higher than I thought would be possible with the exigencies surrounding chip shortage and logistical problems. I knew that Tesla were working around the chip shortage by re-programming different chips to fill the gap left by scarcity in micro-controllers and its very plain that other manufacturers either cannot or have not done the same. I am unsure why this is and I don't think all is at it seems. We know that legacy manufacturers are having difficulties producing EVs. very big difficulties producing them at scale and making a profit, a convenient chip shortage is a good scapegoat for cutting production of EVs and making ICE cars which require fewer chips instead and which appear to be selling well and a at a profit.
VW the one legacy OEM that has seriously embraced electrification know that Tesla are producing higher performing vehicles a lot quicker and a lot cheaper than they can. If this is true for VW (and they have said it is) then all the others are in really deep trouble and its only going to get worse.

Didn't they do well, a bit better than I thought. I was assuming that supply and logistics issues would have taken a bigger toll on the numbers.

Chump
I am a small PI I do not work for anyone I just try to keep the record straight to enable the silent majority who read BB's to get a fair view and expose the FUD for what it is. Now lets have think who might be an a on the payroll the naysayers and FUDsters who continually seek to undermine the Tesla share price by spreading half truths, untruths and downright lies not only because they are short on the stock maybe they are working for legacy auto companies or oil companies or stock market manipulators.

Eileen, Jep, Chump,
Please take a look at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVjd-xnzULg
I think there is much food for thought and a lot of takeaways it starts with a VW management meeting held on Thursday.
VW is widely thought to be the legacy auto maker with the best chance of surviving vehicle electrification, it is much further along the track than Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota, Honda etc. and the presentation indicates that senior VW management are very worried by Tesla.
There is other stuff covered which you may or may not find interesting I know Eileen will be thrilled to know the Q3 numbers will be announced 0930 EST.

Eileen
'Of course they know them by now, there must be a big debate going on right now about what number to put out this time. They might be thinking about going higher than consensus.'
It sounds you you do not agree with the production numbers, seriously how does one go about fiddling production figures?
The figures have to correspond with VIN numbers which the authorities use to keep track of all the vehicles made by all manufacturers several fan boys also access this information and analysts too presumably.