Member Info for Doc.Daneeka

I did wonder if I'd got it right - but surely if £2m shares at 4p produces a value of £8m - that's the number of shares they need to issue to raise another £4m ? CSE Grade 2 Maths though - so perfectly likely I'm off the mark.

What might this mean ?

P2 average costs vary from £5m to £15m, depending on size, complexity etc.

With an Mcap of £8.2m for 2m shares, Synairgen needs to issue another 2 million shares to raise £8m at 4p. To raise £16m, which must be closer to the amount needed for a large and complex P2 in ICU, they'll be offering 4 million new shares. If they do this, your 4p shares will be worth 1p.

Unless there's an institutional investor lined up - which there may be - it's very difficult to see private investors stepping up again.

We'll see soon enough. I thought the excitement around the word 'enhanced' was excessive. It may have a literal trialing meaning but it may also just be a little bit of candy verbiage thrown in by our wordsmith SS. I'ts only appeared once as far as I'm aware and wasn't in the cheerio SS RNS. In any case they clearlv dont have the funds to do even a small P2 and pass the going concern test.

And it's been clear to all of us for at least a month that the trial design is done. It's the only explanation for Simon Shaws various punchy statements

Dippfs - all this talk about no money. They literally said they can't finance the trial.

Not shown a difference in mortality ...

Has Synairgen has pre-access and is this assay part of the P2 design. ? These are the questions which should be answered shortly

Doesn't look like they used it on Universal. If Synairgen gets access it might id as many as 15-18% of the most severely ill - which by coincidence fits perfectly for the MV patient cohort.

Doesn't mean the trial will succeed as trials have not shown a difference in the IFN -ab population - but it's a very well timed positive.

Anyone at this stage defending RM's performance over the last 3 years - and more importantly in his cataclysmic mishandling of the SG018 placement windfall needs their bumps feeling. Obviously it's nonsense to ask "who would you replace RM with ?" There are dozens, possibly hundreds of suitable candidates out there. We needed a med-science businessman right from the start and instead we got a pseudo scientist.

We will know what's afoot when the interims arrive, and I’m sure we can expect a positive-ish update. If the trial was ready though we'd have already been informed - so it's very unlikely they'll say " chocks away !!" I expect some detail of protocols and design, some detail of the science backing it, but I don't think they have the money yet.

Most of the time when clubs in the relegation zone change their manager late in the season - the club is still relegated. Clubs that change earlier when there are still many points to play for have a better chance of avoiding the drop.

Is it now too late for a new Synairgen FC manager to be found ......probably. TFG have made this decision. But is RM capable of screwing up the last few games of the season ..............you bet.

Sure he will chair the meeting Jint. PM might even turn up. But would you be interested in anything either of them might say ? They have both either jumped ship, or been pushed overboard.

Wasting your time talking to the nodding dogs Doc83. Richard Marsden is the Mayor of Shark City. He's going to the AGM without last years CMO, CFO , AND Chairman. Having lost Brooke Clarke just before. Marge might be the only original Synairgen employee, apart from the crusty old super-annuated founders, left in the building. He'll be there, sun-bronzed and unrepentent, surrounded by strangers, as someone he met 20 minutes earlier tells you all that they have a robust trial plan and will update share-holders as soon as the financial plan is in place.

Xv im not saying the numbers don't work but that it's a hard ask to raise the money unless the design of the trial and science supporting it point very strongly to a successful outcome. We don't know what they have up their sleeves but if it's not really good the language they've used would be grossly misleading - so I think there is some qualified reason for optimism. Against this is the disaster of the main effort over the last 2 years - about which only a year ago they used similar punchy and positive language. Personally I think they've been delusional and amateurish - and I wouldn't trust any of them to run even the mini P2 - but as I've said before I don't think they've deliberately mislead us. The punchy words have always been spoken by Simon Shaw. He was wrong last year and the year before but I hope this time his confidence is justified.

This comparative analysis is from the states and suggests an average of $12m for a P2 respiratory trial - dependent on numbers and complexity. Dosing in ICU will put an extra premium cost on to this - but a "mini P2" suggests fewer than usual patient numbers which might average that back down. Perhaps as few as 30 or 40 on SNG plus a control group. SG016 had 98 patients. 48 on SNG, 50 on placebo. The Home trial 55 and 58 respectively. Presumably they define "mini" in relation to their own P2s so this ought to be a fair bit smaller.

Given they had £12.0 million left at the end of 2023 - which will have dropped well into single figures 9 months on, and an unspendable Mcap of £8m - it's clear that - without considering the value of patents - they're attempting to raise funding equal to, or greater than, the value of the company.

If they'd made an immediate decision to go after MV as soon as the DD for Sprinter was known, and cut costs dramatically at the same time - they might have had the funds to have already completed this - but of course they were after bigger fish, and spent the time and gold on prep for the multi-viral trial that never came.

They probably need £20m now to complete the P2 and keep the lights on, and it seems likely that the scientific case for their MV pivot is not overwhelmingly convincing - despite their expressed view that the population was easily identifiable or they might have already found a sponsor.

Will TFG throw in another £15-£20m to chase their losses - or is there a BP lurking and still interested depsite the setbacks ? I doubt these questions will be answered at the AGM - unless we've already had an RNS announcing the trial.

https://www.sofpromed.com/how-much-does-a-clinical-trial-cost

I've already got one funeral next month Fruits - don't think I could bear two. Enjoy it though - will look forward as ever to your report....

it'll be like the nuremberg trials but with just a spotty boy and shambling old man in the dock - while the main characters sip ****tails in the skipper's lounge as their luxury liner heads for sanctuary.

Strange rationale Wpa5 - but I guess there's always something to be said for a beer with the boys. This really will be the one to miss though. TFG are not going to ride to the rescue - it's just gonna be a lot of sad old blokes ( them not you ) in a badly furnished room looking at their phones

When Simon Shaw says " a rigorous development plan " we know that's just Mr Positive trying to jolly up the troops. To his credit he's been semi-visible at least, and has at least tried to stay in touch and flutter little morsels down to us; compared to the Invisible Man anyway. But to his discredit, everything he's ever told us has turned to ashes.

It'll be an interesting AGM with PM and SS demob happy and no longer accountable for the sh.itshow - entirely untroubled by accusations that they've bungled it, and the newb CSO and Chairman throwing their hands out and saying - nothing to do with me pal. If RM is the last man standing he'll have to cop it all - which he won't fancy in the least.

"Shaw said: "I am delighted to hand over the reins to Mark, who is a world class inhaled drug development leader. Synairgen now has both a rigorous development plan for SNG001 and someone with the optimal experience to guide the company's direction through this next phase." Announcing your successor, whilst admitting you were never qualified for the job. Priceless.

If we don't get anything tomorrow, I'm gonna try RM's pager

There are plenty of ghosts walking these corridors Org, but only one ghoul.

I didn't say they would be treating patients - just explaining that any hold up won't be due to ICU staff struggling with the concept of aerosolisation or using the Aerogen solo. Standard stuff to ICU staff. Rolling off a log stuff.