Member Info for Doc.Daneeka

Blimey Nige that puts my losses into perspective. But my losses were considerable too. I had a similar route through to SNG with my wife's best friend on a ventilator in the spring of 2020. Touch and go for her but she somehow survived 2 months of ventilation. Long before even Dexa arrived in hospitals. Others will explain the placing I'm sure but I think it's going to be largely window dressing - to allow PIs to continue their support - when the main cash is coming from TFG or a major pharma. It's usually made at a point lower than the current sp.

Synairgen raised £14m through the issue of 40m new shares in March 2020 to fund SG016 - the placing price of 35p was 32% below the closing price 2 days prior.

Sprinter was funded by an offer at 175p - this time adding 45.7m shares to raise £80m. Hardly any discount for this one as demand was so high.

Anyone's guess what the discount will be this time - it will depend entirely on the quality of P2 trial design as to whether the market - and little us - decide it's a good bet. Clearly if Doc83 is right and there is a bit investor waiting to pay for the P2 - they will already have done due diligence and decided either that their money is reasonably safe, or that it's a worthwhile punt with still huge potential upsides if the trial succeeds.

Xv average P2 trial cost is $10m. Synairgen plan a large trial and are trialing in the most expensive space in hospital. £15m+ was my estimate based on all this. I suspect they'll try for more though. £20-£25m, as the trial won't start until well into next year and they'll need more to keep the lights on before it's finished recruiting.

As we discussed recently there is zero chance of PIs buying half a billion more shares at 2 or 3p - so Doc83 is right that there is a major player in the background. A player who will end up - one way or another - owning the drug, if not the company, ( which has zero value without SNG ) before this story comes to its end.

Mani - don't bother with a response to the embarrassment that is Tommyd. As far as I can see you've been right on this since you saw the light - whilst he has posted nonstop junk and been wrong with every single rampy prediction. He'll disappear now.

Thanks doc83 and wigster. No need to turn this into a verbatim account though. For me anyway. I'm sure you will but you've said enough already. The dilution will be enormous - as we've known since the full year results.

Their evident complacency to have led the company to such a pass is despicable.

How about we wait for the chaps to report. Obviously we already know there's no material news - and as a consequence there isn't the urgency to ruin their afternoon/evening at the end of a long day

Https://www.synairgen.com/media/results-of-agm-and-appointment-of-new-chairman-2

Getting a bit concerned now. We might be looking at a sausage situation

Tumbleweed. Which is exactly as some of us predicted and have been predicting since the interims and beyond. The money has gone - they don't have funding for the last-chance saloon swipe at MV - the main multi-viral raison d'etre has been abandoned - there's no chance of support from MHRA or FDA and they've inexplicably lost 2 of the most senior 20-year members of the team.

If someone could ask the 3rd if there's any chance he'll sail off into the sunset with them I'd be grateful.

Enjoy the drink fellas - if you're in the Lord Raglan he'll be amused to gaze down on another heroic British failure.

Have fun chaps. You'll know what sort of day it's going to be by 7.05am.

Proud of the boys for the robustedness of questioning at last year's AGM - Doc83, Wiggy and Bob et al. They represented us very well. This year it'll go one way or the other. If they have a funding package in place there'll be a celebratory atmosphere - particularly with the long distance day trippers sipping at their hip flasks and wondering if the Pig and Whistle does a decent lunch. Low key but optimistic. If the money isn't in place yet and obviously no way to raise it without losing the company the atmosphere will start febrile but I suspect such an air of resignation will hang over the proceedings that our lads and lasses will be thinking even more of the decent pint to follow, and maybe an M&S meal deal at Waterloo or Euston for the ride home. I doubt even Doc83 will have the heart for more than a casual swipe or two at RM and his remuneration package.

I'm only really interested in 2 things. Looking backwards I wonder how it was that they misjudged the quality of their data and diagnostics so badly that the multi-viral arm of research came to a complete and juddering halt.

Looking forward I'm interested in the same thing. What are the diagnostics - and the specific viral clearance data - that suggests an MV trial will succeed. It's a punt as far as I can tell at the moment - but I'd like to see the workings out and have better confidence in the future of SNG001.

Best prepare for chaos then I'm afraid Doc83.

Not only will nothing in Bobfraeberks fantasy island post come to pass, ( as if anyone in HMRA or BARDA is remotely interested in this company now ) but it's looking more and more likely that they are in exactly the same position as they confessed in the interims just a couple of weeks ago. Difficult to imagine that they still haven't got the money - but you know - they probably haven't.

Happy to eat these words in 3 days ( or sooner) as it'll mean they've finally succeeded at something and there might be a happy ending of sorts to come at some point, but if there is a rescue it won't be by a State agency here or in the US. It can't be PIs either, so the only chance is TFG going into the pharma business or a flush BP chucking chump change at the slim MV prospect.

Hi TP Sure you are correct - it is definitely more upbeat. The big positive is that they have finally finished designing the trial. I don't think they will have funding in place in 2 weeks time unless something leftfield is going on - as hinted at in the "inter alia" comment and in his complacency about finances in the Proactive interview

Still smarting over the seasonality of viruses quip I see Docdoc…., well it's just wrong Fruits - and always has been. More people who go into ICU in the winter and they have worse outcomes. There are studies showing the opposite but only from hot coutries. One in particular based in Madrid where old people (mostly women ) were suffering and dying in 40 degree summer heat. In our climate mortality is as much as 40% higher in the winter months. And particularly for respiratory conditions. I can post a couple of dozen studies if you like but really it's pretty basic stuff.

I'll leave you the last word - too tedious to have to revisit this every time it looks like the company is going to miss yet another bloo.dy winter season.

It does feel as if something is up though. Cursory mention of finance in the interims echoing the last line mention in the Full year results - and the merest "... and we will update on funding required... " as his last sentence in the Proactive interview. Proactive are not paid to probe and ask the obvious follow up questions of course. But you know - where's the money ? Like it's is just not a bigggie. A cash raise that would dilute the shares by 3 or 4 times - and they don't want to talk about it.

They can't possibly believe the market will support any kind of raise, certainly not private investors - which must lead one to the conclusion that someone is out there - and is going to take a very large slice of the action. A dark heavy mass moving slowly through the murky waters.

I'm still not convinced about the very recent departures of PM and SS. Two almost lifelong Synairgen men stepping away as the culmination of the long decades of hard work is about to be revealed. Literally handing in their notice as the ink is drying on the protocols. Whilst RM remains sphinx like and unperturbed. It feels fishy.

Classic Fruits lecturing Dippfs on the dangers of taking a brokers note as company policy this morning, when yesterday evening he said exactly this in the same thread.

"With 2 regulators to satisfy (spanning 2 territories), I don't think it'll be a rushed affair and that will be down to necessity (the amount of work involved with dependent collaborators, rather than them wasting time. I see the spend a necessary part of the journey to drug approval. As Marsden said today, they've been very busy with the "obvious and less obvious" stuff. A lot of work will be going into running a successful trial - it's potentially our last shot. Ref Cavendish note, it sounds like best case scenario is trial to start by end March, if funding agreed for that to happen. Sounds reasonable to me that they will need to spend more time and money to get to trial Day 1, it's no small undertaking.

Bear in mind too that the old argument of potentially 'missing a Winter season' has been be-bunked a few times now. Lots of these viruses that send people to ICU don't suddenly stop circulating in March or January or whenever. And US involvement possibly extends our trialling window given the geographical reach. "

You're so full of crappola Fruits. Spinning fantastical galaxies from nothing.

This is go big or go home time. They can't afford something smaller without funding anyway - and if they miss the mark for the sake of 20 or 30 patients it'll be goodnight Vienna, so a larger trial is the only route forward.

MrC has bought back in anyway hahaha

not much body language to examine here. his features and tone are largely inexpressive. not being asked about the money helps i guess. i really don't know if he's bull****ting or really this relaxed about the future when we know the mathematics are very difficult from here.

the only real piece of new info is that he confirms one of the assays they'll be using is for viral load detection - not surprising as the copd trial's viral load clearance data gave them the rationale for this trial in the first place - but still takes us in another direction than the casanovalabs aab-ifns thing we've been discussing. clabs probably not ready anyway but it would have been a useful addition as this is the cohort most affected.

200m extra shares to raise £8m. 400m shares to raise £16m - dilution the same 4p to 1p. ( I hope that bit's right at least. )

Excusing my mental blank on shares in circulation - this is an extraordinary ask - without a retail investor taking the lion's share.

Apologies ... "to raise another £8m". Not 4. I need a cup of tea.